There are currently 4 Kalibr cruise missile carriers active in the waters of the Black Sea. They include the following:

2x ships of the Admiral Makarov/Esen project (Total possible salvo of 16 missiles)
1x ship of the "Buyan-M" project (Total possible salvo of of 8 missiles)
1x ship of the "Varshavyanka" project (Total possible salvo of 4 missiles)

This gives us a total possible salvo of up to 28 Kalibr cruise missiles and marks a significant increase of the number of Russian Kalibr-carriers active in the Black Sea compared to two days ago.

A recent map update by the Ukrainian source "Deepstate" indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced in the Andriivka direction.

They were able to advance west from positions on the northern outskirts of Petropavlivka, capturing a treeline and reaching the intersection with the next one.

This advance further increases Russia's presence on the tactical heights in the area.

+ ~0.58km² in favour of Russia.

Over the past few days, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) launched a major offensive in the direction of the Jelei oil refinery, north of the capital city of Khartoum.

The first attacks came from the south, where the SAF began advancing from positions in Khartoum Bahri, along the highway. They were able to capture new towns each day, including Abu Halima, Al Sorojia, AlKhoglab, Elfaki Hashim, Al-Salama, and Al-Kabashi.

In the north, the SAF launched an offensive from their positions on the high ground overlooking the refinery, and advanced down the highway, as well as along the eastern bank of The Nile River, capturing the settlements of Almisaklab South, and Medeini, among others. They are now sending in reinforcements, presumably to hold what was retaken, before they push further south towards the oil refinery, where the RSF is currently holed up.

+ ~393km² in favour of the SAF.

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have completed the clearing of the RSF-held pocket south of the newly recaptured city of Wad Madani, capturing the settlements of Rizq Allah, Wad An Nur, Barakat, Abbas, Wad Asha, Fad Hullah, Al Qosairah, Al Rabwah, Al Khawr, and Aldaleba, among others.

Additionally, combing operations in the southern part of Wad Madani were completed.

The Sudanese Armed forces advanced south from their positions in the southern city of Dilling, capturing an oil depot as well as the village of Karkarava which were previously held by the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLM).

Pro-SAF sources claim that the SPLM suffered heavy casualties during the battles.

+ ~105km² in favour of the SAF.

According to the Jerusalem Post, a ceasefire and hostage deal could be announced in Gaza today, if there are no "last-minute surprises".

1 Russian MiG-31K is airborne. It's probably training, but it's possible that launches of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles will take place.

Yep it's just training.

2 Russian Su-30SMs are airborne over the Sea of Azov. There is a threat of Kh-59/31P cruise missile launches for the southern regions of Ukraine.

An unknown number of Ukrainian Su-24s departed from the Myrhorod air base in Poltava Oblast. There is a threat of Storm Shadow cruise missile launches for Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Oryol and Voronezh Oblasts, as well as for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.

There are also Ukrainian aircraft of an unknown type airborne over Druzhkivka and Slovyansk (Donetsk Oblast).

More Ukrainian Su-24s departed from Myrhorod air base.

There are also Ukrainian aircraft active in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson/Mykolaiv Oblasts, although these could be for launching JDAMs.

What we have as of now:

An unknown number of Su-24s departed from Myrhorod air base in two waves.

At least 2 Ukrainian aircraft are airborne over Donetsk Oblast

At least 1 Ukrainian aircraft is airborne over Mykolaiv Oblast.

Unusual activity to say the least, but not unheard of. I will continue to monitor the situation.

The Su-24s landed.

A recent map update by the Ukrainian source "Deepstate" states that Ukrainian forces counterattacked in the Kurakhove direction, entering the village of Shevchenko, and recapturing around 40% of the settlement.

A Russian source refuted this claim, however, stating instead that fighting was ongoing for the agricultural buildings on the northwestern outskirts and that "it is quiet in Shevchenko itself" (referring to the residential part of the village).

There are unconfirmed reports of Hamas officially accepting a draft agreement for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal. This was reported by the Associated Press, citing two anonymous officials involved in the talks.

> Why are you so critical of Pro-Ukrainians AMK, they did nothing to you.

> meanwhile...

AFP citing a Palestinian source close to Hamas: "Israel will release about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including several with lengthy sentences."
This would be in exchange for the freeing of 33 Israeli hostages.

Meanwhile, an Israeli government official said that "several hundred prisoners will be released" as part of the first phase of the deal.

Israeli National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir:

"The deal that is taking shape is a surrender deal to Hamas. I call on my friend, Minister Bezalel Smotrich, to join me and work with me together against the surrender deal to Hamas.

My party, Otzma Yehudit, alone, does not have the power to prevent the deal, so I propose that we go together to the prime minister and tell him that if he approves the deal, we will withdraw from the government.

This cooperation is the only way to prevent a surrender deal, to prevent this disastrous deal, and to ensure that the sacrifices of hundreds of soldiers were not in vain."

We could be staring down the barrel of a political crisis in Israel. Over a year ago on October 7th, I wouldn't have thought that anything like this would happen.

According to Israeli Channel 14's military correspondent Hillel Biton Rosen, the Israeli army has begun logistical preparations to dismantle military points and withdraw from the Netzarim corridor.

The Netzarim corridor is a section of Gaza under Israeli military occupation, aimed at preventing the free movement of Hamas between Gaza City + Northern Gaza, and the rest of the strip.

Hamas released a statement on the progress of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal negotiations that are currently taking place in Doha, Qatar.

"The leadership of the Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas held a series of contacts and consultations with the leaders of the Palestinian factions, informing them of the progress made in the negotiations taking place in Doha.

During these contacts, the leaders of the forces and factions expressed their satisfaction with the course of the negotiations, stressing the need for general national preparation for the next stage and its requirements.

The movement's leadership and various forces stressed the continuation of communication and consultation until the completion of the ceasefire agreement and prisoner exchange, which has reached its final stages, expressing their hope that this round of negotiations will end with a clear and comprehensive agreement."