2 Russian Su-30SMs are airborne over the Sea of Azov. There is a threat of Kh-59/31P cruise missile launches for the southern regions of Ukraine.

An unknown number of Ukrainian Su-24s departed from the Myrhorod air base in Poltava Oblast. There is a threat of Storm Shadow cruise missile launches for Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Oryol and Voronezh Oblasts, as well as for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.

There are also Ukrainian aircraft of an unknown type airborne over Druzhkivka and Slovyansk (Donetsk Oblast).

More Ukrainian Su-24s departed from Myrhorod air base.

There are also Ukrainian aircraft active in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson/Mykolaiv Oblasts, although these could be for launching JDAMs.

What we have as of now:

An unknown number of Su-24s departed from Myrhorod air base in two waves.

At least 2 Ukrainian aircraft are airborne over Donetsk Oblast

At least 1 Ukrainian aircraft is airborne over Mykolaiv Oblast.

Unusual activity to say the least, but not unheard of. I will continue to monitor the situation.

The Su-24s landed.

A recent map update by the Ukrainian source "Deepstate" states that Ukrainian forces counterattacked in the Kurakhove direction, entering the village of Shevchenko, and recapturing around 40% of the settlement.

A Russian source refuted this claim, however, stating instead that fighting was ongoing for the agricultural buildings on the northwestern outskirts and that "it is quiet in Shevchenko itself" (referring to the residential part of the village).

There are unconfirmed reports of Hamas officially accepting a draft agreement for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal. This was reported by the Associated Press, citing two anonymous officials involved in the talks.

> Why are you so critical of Pro-Ukrainians AMK, they did nothing to you.

> meanwhile...

AFP citing a Palestinian source close to Hamas: "Israel will release about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including several with lengthy sentences."
This would be in exchange for the freeing of 33 Israeli hostages.

Meanwhile, an Israeli government official said that "several hundred prisoners will be released" as part of the first phase of the deal.

Israeli National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir:

"The deal that is taking shape is a surrender deal to Hamas. I call on my friend, Minister Bezalel Smotrich, to join me and work with me together against the surrender deal to Hamas.

My party, Otzma Yehudit, alone, does not have the power to prevent the deal, so I propose that we go together to the prime minister and tell him that if he approves the deal, we will withdraw from the government.

This cooperation is the only way to prevent a surrender deal, to prevent this disastrous deal, and to ensure that the sacrifices of hundreds of soldiers were not in vain."

We could be staring down the barrel of a political crisis in Israel. Over a year ago on October 7th, I wouldn't have thought that anything like this would happen.

According to Israeli Channel 14's military correspondent Hillel Biton Rosen, the Israeli army has begun logistical preparations to dismantle military points and withdraw from the Netzarim corridor.

The Netzarim corridor is a section of Gaza under Israeli military occupation, aimed at preventing the free movement of Hamas between Gaza City + Northern Gaza, and the rest of the strip.

Hamas released a statement on the progress of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal negotiations that are currently taking place in Doha, Qatar.

"The leadership of the Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas held a series of contacts and consultations with the leaders of the Palestinian factions, informing them of the progress made in the negotiations taking place in Doha.

During these contacts, the leaders of the forces and factions expressed their satisfaction with the course of the negotiations, stressing the need for general national preparation for the next stage and its requirements.

The movement's leadership and various forces stressed the continuation of communication and consultation until the completion of the ceasefire agreement and prisoner exchange, which has reached its final stages, expressing their hope that this round of negotiations will end with a clear and comprehensive agreement."

As the ceasefire talks continue to progress in Doha, Qatar, Israel is continuing its aerial bombardment of Gaza.

Here is probably some of the clearest footage of an airstrike on Gaza to date. The target was a glass factory in the Al-Maghazi refugee camp in the central part of the strip.

Evacuation orders were issued in advance, but the IDF is yet to comment on the incident.

Ukrainian nationalist Serhii Sternenko stated the following on his Telegram channel:

"The [Ukrainian] Air Force is indeed facing a critical situation with transfers to the infantry, as a result of which we may lose the aviation component as such.

The same applies to narrow-profile air defense specialists, for example, radar operators, whose training takes a very long time.

According to my sources, the Air Force will have to withdraw dozens of combat aircraft as uncombatable, because there will simply be no one to maintain them.

Due to the forced transfer of air defense specialists, the detection of missiles and drones will deteriorate significantly.

These decisions of the high military command are due to a significant shortage of infantrymen in the LBZ (frontline). But almost half of our losses are a consequence of the crisis of army management, when none of the commanders is responsible for excessive losses, when brigades are broken up, when poorly trained soldiers from new brigades are thrown into battle. And the old brigades are unable to receive reinforcements and pour new recruits into an environment where the military already has combat experience."

Further confirmation of Ukraine converting whoever they can into infantry, which - by the way - many have denied in the past.

According to a Ukrainian source, Russian forces are attacking in three main directions in Western Donetsk Oblast.

Fierce battles are ongoing in the area of Upsenivka. Russian forces are attacking into the village and are reportedly gaining a foothold. However, for now, the fighting is occurring on the eastern outskirts.

Further south, Russian forces are pressing towards Nadiivka from the north through the fields.

And in Novoandriivka, Russia is trying to reach the settlement from the area of Yasenove.

In their own words: "There's so much shit going on here!"

A Turkish airstrike was carried out on Mount Jara in the Dohuk Governorate of northern Iraq. They were presumably targeting Kurdish PKK positions.

Unidentified missile in the direction of Odesa

It's a Kh-31P cruise missile launched from a Su-30SM

2 Kh-31Ps heading for Odesa/Chornomorsk

Explosions in Odesa Oblast