I'm monitoring a potential ballistic missile launch to southern Kharkiv Oblast. I will make a missile map update if it was indeed launched.

Update: false alarm

A recent report from a reliable Ukrainian source indicates that Russian forces advanced on the eastern flank of Pokrovsk and entered the village of Yelzavetivka.

After an initial failed assault on the village, Russian forces regrouped and launched an infantry attack from the treelines east of the village and entered the eastern outskirts, taking up positions there. They also captured the forest plantations east of Yelzavetivka.

The rest of the village remains in a grey zone for the time being while I wait for more information.

+ ~0.70km² in favour of Russia.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces advanced in northwestern Chasiv Yar and reached the western outskirts of the city.

Russian forces advanced from positions in the residential area near the railway station and captured Ukrainian positions in the northwestern-most houses of the city, reaching the graveyard on the outskirts.

Ukrainian forces still maintain positions in the residential area southeast of this advance, but they have their backs partially against a lake, complicating a future withdrawal.

+ ~0.38km² in favour of Russia.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces advanced in the Lyman direction and significantly expanded their bridgehead on the western bank of the Zherebets river.

Russian forces advanced uphill from positions in the village of Ivanivka, capturing a series of treelines and forest plantations. The Russians took up positions at the top of the tactical heights. If these positions can be resupplied easily enough, then the future Russian prospects for advances in this area in the near future are looking more and more positive for them.

This advance has created a large wedge in the Ukrainian defences, and could facilitate a future advance to the village of Kolodyazi to the southwest.

+ ~3.01km² in favour of Russia.

The path to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is open for Russia. There are no open fields that need to be crossed. All they have to do is clear Udachne, move along the windbreaks on either side of the railway line and clear Molodetske.

There are also treelines positioned in a way that will allow them to branch off and protect both their northern and southern flanks.

All of this can be achieved while being under the cover of trees.

This is why I believe the first entry will come from Udachne, rather than from Uspenivka, Nadiivka, Novoandriivka or Velyka Novosilka.

To those who think "Russia won't go to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast because it isn't one of the 4 annexed regions", explain to me: why is Russia in Kharkiv Oblast?

They want to stretch Ukrainian lines. At the same time, Zelensky shows no signs of wanting peace negotiations.

⚡️Channel 12 Israel: The Nahal Brigade leaves Gaza Strip after fighting there for more than a year and losing 67 of its fighters during the battles.

Aerial view of what's left of Rafah, southern Gaza.

The capture of Terny has now been visually confirmed.

Terny has been defended by Ukraine for just over a year, with dozens of Russian mechanised losses during head-on assaults on the fields west of the village.

The main remaining Ukrainian stronghold in Toretsk in the form of the Toretska mines, is being stormed. around half of it is now under Russian control. The nearby residential areas will soon be left as the last part of the city under Ukrainian control.

4.8km to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

The Russians are slicing through southern Udachne. They are approaching the railway station. The main part of the village could fall in the next 1-2 weeks.

🇾🇪❌⚓🚢 Red Sea Shipping Losses Reach $175 Billion Due to Houthi Attacks

In 2024, Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea caused global economic losses of $175 billion, according to The Economist. Targeting key routes like the Suez Canal, these assaults have led to skyrocketing freight rates and shipping costs.

The Houthis, reportedly using Iranian weapons and Russian intelligence, attacked nearly 200 vessels, damaging over 40 ships. Shipping companies have been forced to reroute through Africa, increasing transit times, fuel consumption, and costs.

▪️Average cost of a single shipment: + $1 million

▪️Shipping container costs: 5x increase

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Russian forces have reportedly completed the capture of the village of Kotlyne on the western flank of Pokrovsk.

Kotlyne's capture has been confirmed by a reliable Ukrainian source.

Explosions in Sumy and Myrhorod. A combined Kh-59 and Iskander attack is ongoing.

Explosions in Hadyach, Poltava Oblast

As far as I know, 1 Iskander-M/Kn-23 ballistic missile and 2 Kh-59 cruise missiles were used.