The Sudanese Armed Forces are about to finally break the longest siege of the entire Sudanese Civil war. Forces from the besieged army barracks near the city centre of Khartoum are now breaking through residential areas to the north, while the forces from Khartoum North are penetrating RSF defences south.

Another major victory is going to be achieved in the next 48 hours. Maps to come soon.

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) continue to make progress in the capital of Khartoum and are on the brink of linking up with the besieged garrison at the army barracks.

The SAF advanced south from positions near the Sudan Global School, capturing the African Council School, and the Omda Apartments, as well as a series of residential blocks.

At the same time, the SAF is advancing from positions north of the army barracks, through the southern part of the Industrial City, although it is unknown if any new positions were consolidated, so for now, I will put this area in the grey zone.

+ ~0.33km² in favour of the SAF

With the SAF making more important progress in the eastern parts of Sudan, it's looking more and more likely that we will see a "Libya Scenario" in Sudan, where the country is split in half between two warring factions - the SAF, and the RSF.

The SAF has recaptured Wad Madani, eliminated a large pocket of RSF forces south of Wad Madani, is making gains in Omdurman (west of Khartoum) and is making significant progress towards the goal of completely recapturing Khartoum. Once these goals are complete, and the RSF pocket in the southeast is eliminated, the RSF will no longer have any major strongholds in eastern Sudan, likely forcing them to fall back west to El-Obeid.

I suspect that if this happens, the RSF will begin to focus more on areas where they have a clear advantage, i.e. the Darfur and Kordofan areas of the country, in western Sudan. The goal would be to eliminate the remaining SAF pockets, and fight back against the Darfur Joint Forces, who are allied with the SAF, therefore securing supply lines from Chad and Libya.

While the SAF has the ability to make significant progress and has the initiative in almost all areas of the country, in my opinion, they do not have the strength to retake the Darfur and Kordofan regions. The RSF may be on the back foot, but they are far from defeat. They still have their allies, such as the UAE supporting them, and will likely continue to for some time.

Over the past week, the SAF has achieved a major breakthrough north of the capital of Khartoum as a part of their offensive on the RSF stronghold at the Khartoum oil refinery.

The SAF advanced north from positions in El-Kabashi, along the eastern bank of the Nile River, capturing the settlements of Al-Saday, el-Ansar, Eltomaniat, Elnaya and Alasfiya, among others. This puts them just over 12 km from the oil refinery.

+ ~69.7km² in favour of the SAF

In northwestern Syria, heavy fighting between the Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continue on the western bank of the Euphretes river.

Both sides are making progress, with heavy casualties, although reports suggest that the SNA is suffering heavier casualties.

In the north, SNA forces advanced from the north and west, capturing the village of Khirbat Tuwayni, as well as Yusuf Al-Basha. The goal here is likely to reach the Tishreen Dam and cut off SDF formations southwest of the dam.

At the same time, SDF forces advanced southwest of the dam, capturing positions south, southwest, and west of Jabal ash-Shash, possibly in an outflanking maneuver for advancing SNA formations. If true, this is risky, as it would make more sense for the SDF to concentrate more forces in the north, where there are just over 3km between the front line and the Tishreen Dam.

+ ~7.14km² in favour of the SNA
+ ~8.70km² in favour of the SDF

Russian forces have reportedly continued to make significant progress in the bridgehead on the western bank of the Zherebets river, and are apparently bypassing the village of Kolodyazi, taking up positions in the forests and treelines north of the village.

They also reportedly made a small advance northwest of Yampolivka, getting close to cutting off the Ukrainian supply line to the village over the Zherebets River.

Russian forces have reportedly advanced in central Chasiv Yar, completing the capture of the refractory plant. They also reportedly advanced into the buildings in the city centre, reaching the administrative building.

Russian forces are reportedly storming the village of Guevo in the southeastern part of the Kursk salient. There are reports of extensive airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in the village as infantry move in.

Results of the Russian MLRS attack on Slovyansk yesterday. A Ukrainian troop concentration was hit north of the city.

1 Russian Kalibr-carrier is currently conducting training in the waters of the Black Sea. Others will likely follow, but this does not indicate an impending Russian missile strike.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly counterattacked in the southern Oskil bridgehead, recapturing the village of Zahryzove.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly counterattacked in the Andriivka direction, recapturing the area between Andriivka and Shevchenko, and establishing a solid buffer-zone east of Andriivka.

At the same time, Russian forces are advancing from the north, and if this Ukrainian advance is true, it will get hit on the northern flank in the near future once those forests fall.

The Iranian Embassy in Kabul has announced that Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi is set to imminently visit Afghanistan, making it the first trip by a high-ranking Iranian official to Afghanistan since the Taliban's takeover in 2021.

Al-Qassam brigades fighters (the armed wing of Hamas) are now engaged in battles with the IDF in Jenin (West Bank), with reports of them using machine guns, small-arms and IEDs.

Regarding the situation in Udachne.

Heavy fighting continues for the village. Despite reports of successful Ukrainian counterattacks, a reliable Ukrainian source reported that Russian forces are continuing their advance towards the railway station in the centre of the village.

Nevertheless, the Ukrainian command understands the importance of this village due to it being the gateway to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and an important staging ground for future attacks to further outflank and envelope Pokrovsk from the west. Therefore, Ukraine is putting up extremely fierce resistance here, especially in the northern streets of the village, where Russia has been unable to advance for days.

However, forward progress has picked up again east of Udachne, with the ventilation shaft of the Kotlyne mines, as well as further treeline positions being occupied. Ukraine seems to have withdrawn to a thin buffer-zone east of the Pivdennodonbaska coking plant, north of Udachne.

The loss of Kotlyne has certainly begun to show its effects, and we will undoubtedly see further Russian progress in the direction of the Coking plant and the village of Hryshyne (where the Pavlohrad - Pokrovsk highway runs just south of) in the near future.

After several hours of fighting, the Houthis have reportedly captured the town of Al-Jabara from the Saudi-backed coalition forces in the Ad-Dali direction of Yemen.

This is the first major change on this section of the frontline in years.

Map by @RNintel on Telegram

⚡️AFP quoting the Governor of Jenin, Kamal Abu Al Rub: “Hundreds of Palestinians leave Jenin camp in northern West Bank, in compliance with Israeli army orders… The situation is very difficult.”

“The occupation army has bulldozed all the roads leading to Jenin camp and to the Jenin government hospital... There is shooting and explosions,” he added, referring to the Israeli military.

The commander of Hamas' Beit Hanoun battalion, Hussein Fayyad has been found alive.

On May 24, 2024, the IDF claimed that he had been killed in a tunnel, but after 8 months, he has reappeared, delivering a speech to Gazans.

Repeated explosions have been reported in Hryshyne since this morning. This is likely the result of significantly increased artillery and MLRS shelling.

Approximate situation in Velyka Novosilka.

Contrary to previous reports, Ukrainian forces still maintain a presence in southern Velyka Novosilka, in and around the hospital. However, the formations here are either encircled, or about to be encircled. If there is an escape route, it is in the grey zone.

Ukraine's main presence remains in the north of the town, but there is currently no organised defence.