AMK Mapping
Kh-59 missile in the direction of Voznesensk, Mykolaiv Oblast.
Clarification: It passed over the town of Snigurivka, eastern Mykolaiv Oblast.
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So this is a copy-pasted reply that I wrote to a response I got claiming that Ukraine still might win this war. Thought I would post it here in case you were interested why I - A pro-Ukrainian - think Russia will win this war.
1. Russian losses are big, yes, but they are replaceable. UK MOD intelligence indicates that Russia is producing 1,200 new tanks per year, and NATO intelligence states that 30k new Russian troops are being sent to the frontline each month.
2. Ukrainian production is growing but that won't be forever. Ukraine has two weaknesses here: the size of their country and their long-range strike capabilities. Firstly, Ukraine is much, much smaller than Russia. Russia can easily reach all of Ukraine with their missiles, hence the strikes near Lviv. This means that Russia can and will destroy Ukraine's limited production capabilities with missiles. Ukraine on the other hand can't. Russia is too big for Ukraine to reach all of it, and they only have drones that can reach large areas - drones that can easily be shot down unlike missiles.
Even if Ukraine did have long-range missiles like the Russians, Russia's air defence capabilities are much, much stronger than Ukraine's.
3. The west won't support Ukraine forever for two main reasons. They are a democracy, whereas Russia and their allies are dictatorships. This means that Russia doesn't have to worry much about public disapproval of the war (to an extent obviously, there is always the risk of revolution or coups). The west on the other hand does need to worry about that. They are a democracy. The people vote in who they want. And as the far right is on the rise in Europe, the US and Canada, nationalism is surging and war fatigue is growing, the public opinion will begin to sway away from supporting Ukraine. People will begin to vote in nationalistic and right-wing governments, many of which won't support Ukraine, (Argentina is an exception of this).
Secondly, even if the west maintains its current policies on Ukraine, you have to realise that they are using Ukraine. Using them for their own benefit - to buy time to prop up Europe's defence industry if they ever need to face Russia directly. Ukraine is the perfect tool for them to use to keep Russia occupied and distracted while much of the west transitions to a war economy. Think about all the other times when the west has abandoned their allies when it suddenly wasn't worth it for them anymore. Afghanistan, South Vietnam, Syrian rebels, Eastern Europe after WW2. They are selfish and only do things for their own benefit. That's one of the reasons why I support Ukraine. They have to deal with Russian aggression and Western selfishness.
4. Firstly, Russia only having North Korea and Iran as allies doesn't matter as much even if it was true. Russia produces so much military equipment on their own and has so many resources that North Korea and Iran are only a bonus for them. Think about their massive increases in artillery production, manpower recruitment, tank and IFV production, missile production, etc.
Secondly, as a result of the west being not very popular in places such as Africa due to their colonial past, Russian influence is growing in these regions. Take a look at Burkina Faso where Russia has just sent in a lot of weapons and resources to help them fight ISIS and other Jihadist groups. And Niger, where the coup forced the US and France to mostly leave the country, and where pro-Putin rallies were held. In Mali and Guinea there have also been coups. Russia will likely extend their influence there too. And the amount of untouched natural resources that Africa has is astounding, resources that Russia would be very happy to exploit. China and Russia are essentially free to extend their influence across large parts of Africa due to the anti-western sentiment dating back to their colonial past.
1. Russian losses are big, yes, but they are replaceable. UK MOD intelligence indicates that Russia is producing 1,200 new tanks per year, and NATO intelligence states that 30k new Russian troops are being sent to the frontline each month.
2. Ukrainian production is growing but that won't be forever. Ukraine has two weaknesses here: the size of their country and their long-range strike capabilities. Firstly, Ukraine is much, much smaller than Russia. Russia can easily reach all of Ukraine with their missiles, hence the strikes near Lviv. This means that Russia can and will destroy Ukraine's limited production capabilities with missiles. Ukraine on the other hand can't. Russia is too big for Ukraine to reach all of it, and they only have drones that can reach large areas - drones that can easily be shot down unlike missiles.
Even if Ukraine did have long-range missiles like the Russians, Russia's air defence capabilities are much, much stronger than Ukraine's.
3. The west won't support Ukraine forever for two main reasons. They are a democracy, whereas Russia and their allies are dictatorships. This means that Russia doesn't have to worry much about public disapproval of the war (to an extent obviously, there is always the risk of revolution or coups). The west on the other hand does need to worry about that. They are a democracy. The people vote in who they want. And as the far right is on the rise in Europe, the US and Canada, nationalism is surging and war fatigue is growing, the public opinion will begin to sway away from supporting Ukraine. People will begin to vote in nationalistic and right-wing governments, many of which won't support Ukraine, (Argentina is an exception of this).
Secondly, even if the west maintains its current policies on Ukraine, you have to realise that they are using Ukraine. Using them for their own benefit - to buy time to prop up Europe's defence industry if they ever need to face Russia directly. Ukraine is the perfect tool for them to use to keep Russia occupied and distracted while much of the west transitions to a war economy. Think about all the other times when the west has abandoned their allies when it suddenly wasn't worth it for them anymore. Afghanistan, South Vietnam, Syrian rebels, Eastern Europe after WW2. They are selfish and only do things for their own benefit. That's one of the reasons why I support Ukraine. They have to deal with Russian aggression and Western selfishness.
4. Firstly, Russia only having North Korea and Iran as allies doesn't matter as much even if it was true. Russia produces so much military equipment on their own and has so many resources that North Korea and Iran are only a bonus for them. Think about their massive increases in artillery production, manpower recruitment, tank and IFV production, missile production, etc.
Secondly, as a result of the west being not very popular in places such as Africa due to their colonial past, Russian influence is growing in these regions. Take a look at Burkina Faso where Russia has just sent in a lot of weapons and resources to help them fight ISIS and other Jihadist groups. And Niger, where the coup forced the US and France to mostly leave the country, and where pro-Putin rallies were held. In Mali and Guinea there have also been coups. Russia will likely extend their influence there too. And the amount of untouched natural resources that Africa has is astounding, resources that Russia would be very happy to exploit. China and Russia are essentially free to extend their influence across large parts of Africa due to the anti-western sentiment dating back to their colonial past.
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5. Trump winning the election and Europe supplying Ukraine alone won't work. NATO is nothing without the US. Have you seen the state of the militaries in Europe? Ever since WW2 and the Cold war, much of Europe has been slowly de-militarising. This is due to the belief that Russia is no longer a threat, and they couldn't have been more wrong. This means that it will take time for Europe to re-militarise and the only countries really taking it seriously are Germany and especially Poland. This means that Europe alone cannot supply Ukraine if/when trump wins. Heck, not even the US is supplying Ukraine properly.
This also comes back to the age-old issue of manpower in Ukraine. No amount of military aid will keep Ukraine afloat forever when the population isn't willing to fight, and Ukraine is running out of people. Who will operate the new artillery systems and tanks? It makes no sense to argue that military equipment will save Ukraine.
Overall, in my opinion the only thing that can allow Ukraine to win this war is direct NATO intervention. Boots on the ground. But that is something that is simply impossible due to the fact that the US doesn't care enough about Ukraine. If they truly cared, they would be sending dozens of Patriot systems and batteries. Hundreds of Abrams. Thousands of AFVs. But they don't, and that's just the sad reality.
This also comes back to the age-old issue of manpower in Ukraine. No amount of military aid will keep Ukraine afloat forever when the population isn't willing to fight, and Ukraine is running out of people. Who will operate the new artillery systems and tanks? It makes no sense to argue that military equipment will save Ukraine.
Overall, in my opinion the only thing that can allow Ukraine to win this war is direct NATO intervention. Boots on the ground. But that is something that is simply impossible due to the fact that the US doesn't care enough about Ukraine. If they truly cared, they would be sending dozens of Patriot systems and batteries. Hundreds of Abrams. Thousands of AFVs. But they don't, and that's just the sad reality.
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An unknown number of Tu-95's took off from Olenya airfield. We might see another major missile strike today.
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AMK Mapping
An unknown number of Tu-95's took off from Olenya airfield. We might see another major missile strike today.
It was only one Tu-95 and its heading for the Barents Sea. Most likely training.
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Reconnaissance UAV over Odesa Oblast. We might see an Iskander strike here soon.
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MiG-31K airborne. The MiG-31K can carry a Kinzhal Hypersonic missile. Air raid alerts were declared in all regions of Ukraine.
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AMK Mapping
A second MiG-31K took off.
They are travelling the direction of Ukraine's international borders. Ukrainian TG channels report that the threat of launches is small.
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AMK Mapping
They are travelling the direction of Ukraine's international borders. Ukrainian TG channels report that the threat of launches is small.
They are reportedly training. Waiting on more sources to confirm this.
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Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have made significant progress in and around Krasnohorivka.
Firstly, Russian forces appear to have forced Ukraine out of the large pocket created by the Bradley counterattack in May. This would have been done by a series of attacks on the eastern outskirts of Krasnohorivka. Ukrainian infantry likely withdrew to the hospital complex, the last remaining Ukrainian stronghold in the city. However, due to the fall of the high-rise residential quarter known as "the citadel," the hospital complex is now encircled on three sides.
Russian infantry, possibly utilising motorbikes also broke through Ukrainian defences in the north of the city, advancing for around 1.17 km in a westerly direction.
Meanwhile in the west of the city, Russian forces made a small advance in the residential area of ~265m.
Firstly, Russian forces appear to have forced Ukraine out of the large pocket created by the Bradley counterattack in May. This would have been done by a series of attacks on the eastern outskirts of Krasnohorivka. Ukrainian infantry likely withdrew to the hospital complex, the last remaining Ukrainian stronghold in the city. However, due to the fall of the high-rise residential quarter known as "the citadel," the hospital complex is now encircled on three sides.
Russian infantry, possibly utilising motorbikes also broke through Ukrainian defences in the north of the city, advancing for around 1.17 km in a westerly direction.
Meanwhile in the west of the city, Russian forces made a small advance in the residential area of ~265m.
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AMK Mapping
A third MiG-31K took off from the same airfield.
The first MiG-31K is returning to the Savasleika airbase. It is likely that there wont be any strikes.
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