5. Trump winning the election and Europe supplying Ukraine alone won't work. NATO is nothing without the US. Have you seen the state of the militaries in Europe? Ever since WW2 and the Cold war, much of Europe has been slowly de-militarising. This is due to the belief that Russia is no longer a threat, and they couldn't have been more wrong. This means that it will take time for Europe to re-militarise and the only countries really taking it seriously are Germany and especially Poland. This means that Europe alone cannot supply Ukraine if/when trump wins. Heck, not even the US is supplying Ukraine properly.
This also comes back to the age-old issue of manpower in Ukraine. No amount of military aid will keep Ukraine afloat forever when the population isn't willing to fight, and Ukraine is running out of people. Who will operate the new artillery systems and tanks? It makes no sense to argue that military equipment will save Ukraine.

Overall, in my opinion the only thing that can allow Ukraine to win this war is direct NATO intervention. Boots on the ground. But that is something that is simply impossible due to the fact that the US doesn't care enough about Ukraine. If they truly cared, they would be sending dozens of Patriot systems and batteries. Hundreds of Abrams. Thousands of AFVs. But they don't, and that's just the sad reality.

Here's the post I replied to.

An unknown number of Tu-95's took off from Olenya airfield. We might see another major missile strike today.

Air raid alerts were declared in a number of communities near the Gaza Strip.

It was only one Tu-95 and its heading for the Barents Sea. Most likely training.

Reconnaissance UAV over Odesa Oblast. We might see an Iskander strike here soon.

MiG-31K airborne. The MiG-31K can carry a Kinzhal Hypersonic missile. Air raid alerts were declared in all regions of Ukraine.

A second MiG-31K took off.

Loud explosions in Kramatorsk. (unrelated to MiG)

They are travelling the direction of Ukraine's international borders. Ukrainian TG channels report that the threat of launches is small.

They are reportedly training. Waiting on more sources to confirm this.

Explosions in Slovyansk.

A third MiG-31K took off from the same airfield.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have made significant progress in and around Krasnohorivka.

Firstly, Russian forces appear to have forced Ukraine out of the large pocket created by the Bradley counterattack in May. This would have been done by a series of attacks on the eastern outskirts of Krasnohorivka. Ukrainian infantry likely withdrew to the hospital complex, the last remaining Ukrainian stronghold in the city. However, due to the fall of the high-rise residential quarter known as "the citadel," the hospital complex is now encircled on three sides.

Russian infantry, possibly utilising motorbikes also broke through Ukrainian defences in the north of the city, advancing for around 1.17 km in a westerly direction.

Meanwhile in the west of the city, Russian forces made a small advance in the residential area of ~265m.

The first MiG-31K is returning to the Savasleika airbase. It is likely that there wont be any strikes.

More explosions in Kramatorsk.

More explosions in Slovyansk. Something is being targeted over and over again.

All MiGs returned to the Savasleika airbase.

A Tu-95 took off from Engels airfield. If it does launch missiles, I won't be able to track them as I won't be at home.

It's probably redeploying to Olenya airfield, but it may launch missiles on the way. I'll keep you all updated for the time being.

Explosions in Occupied Mariupol near the airport.