Update from the Myanmar civil war:

Reports are coming in that Arakhan army has captured Thandwe Prison after 3 days of intense fighting and now control the town. Government forces will now likely withdraw further south to the next town: Thabyuyaing. A reliable source reported that the government forces will likely put up strong resistance there.

Map by @MyanmarWarMap on Twitter.

Update from Krasnohorivka:

Geolocated footage shows that both Russian and Ukrainian forces have both made some small advances in the city, so let's go over them.

Firstly, Ukrainian forces (likely infantry) advanced from the fields and the railway line southwest of Krasnohorivka and re-entered the city via the southern windbreak of the railway line. They advanced for about 890 metres in an easterly direction, before consolidating control over their new positions. This advance in the residential area indicates that Ukrainian forces have also advanced in the fields just north of the reservoir and captured the agricultural buildings on the outskirts of the city.

Secondly, Russian forces continue to slowly grind through Ukrainian positions in the northwestern residential area of Krasnohorivka, this time advancing by ~340 metres in a northerly direction along Parkhomenka, Horkhoho, Suvorova, Chkalova and Chekhova streets. They are now just ~910 metres from the Lozova river.

Explosion in Voznesensk district. An Iskander-M was launched at the city.

Approximate paths of today's Russian Shahed drones. Based on preliminary reports, Russia launched 14 Shahed drones at Ukraine over the past 24 hours. The following information is based on reports by Ukrainian monitor and radar telegram channels, as well as Local telegram channels.

Russian drones entered Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Dnipro, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv and Kyiv Oblasts. At least 13 out of 14 were shot down based on explosion reports from local channels. It is possible that one impacted Myrhorod, but it is also possible that it was shot down and that the explosion reports was air defence.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have made major gains in the south Donetsk front. This advance is likely a chain of incremental advances that occurred over the past month.

They started off as a series of assaults on the flanks of the Volodymyrivka mines, threatening an encirclement of the Ukrainian garrison holding out there. This forced a Ukrainian withdrawal which sparked a chain of advances leading to the Russians getting very close to the O0532 Vuhledar-Kostyantynivka Road in a BMP assault which was repelled by Ukrainian artillery.

However, the damage has been done and this road is now no longer usable for the AFU. They will need to rely solely on dirt roads further west to supply the key stronghold of Vuhledar, meaning that it will be very difficult to supply it during rainy or muddy seasons. The Russians now also control a significant portion of the tactical heights, which will have a detrimental effect to the overall Ukrainian defensive operations in the area.

"1,000 men lost in 9 months isn't that bad"

What about 1,000 marines?

This community is getting worse and worse. Don't stick your head in the sand and pretend what happened in Krynky and other areas wasn't a nightmare for the AFU.

I originally supported the Krynky bridgehead because I believed it forced the Russians to waste resources. But once the Russians stopped attacking, I realised that it has just been for PR points.

Only when I saw the death toll did I realise the cost paid for practically nothing. Those marines could have been used to hold other areas of the frontline. They could have stopped the Ocheretyne breakthrough. But no, the Ukrainian command decides to waste it on a stupid PR bridgehead, and people actually support this.

The AFU needs to reconsider its decision-making and commit fully to defensive operations.

Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian positions in the Siversk direction and occupied two and a half new villages.

Firstly, Russian forces seized control over the remainder of Rozdolivka, however this likely occurred a couple of weeks ago when the reports of its capture were first coming in. The Sukha Plotva river is now in the way of future Russian advances, and they will need to cross it in order to reach the next villages in the way of the eventual goal of capturing Siversk.

The maximum advance of Russian forces was ~1.42km

However, the main advance occurred near the village of Ivano-Darivka. Before advancing on this settlement, the Russians first needed to clear the rest of Spirne. This was likely completed around 2 weeks ago. The Russians then consolidated control over their new positions in the ruins of Spirne, before launching simultaneous assaults from the south and the east, breaking through Ukrainian positions in the fields and reaching Ivano-Darivka. The Ukrainians were then knocked out of their positions in the eastern half of the village.

The maximum advance of Russian forces was ~3.42km.

This makes the reasoning behind the original offensive southeast of Vyimka obvious. The goal was to flank Ukrainian positions in Spirne.

Russian forces have advanced into Prohres on the Pokrovsk front.

Big if true. It would put Russia 12km from Novohrodivka and just 7km from Hrodivka. Prohres is likely a major Ukrainian stronghold on the tactical heights.
It's impossible to know the situation there with defensive positions due to the complete lack of footage from the area, however it may fall sooner than you'd expect.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces have made significant progress in two large sections of the Pokrovsk direction. Let's go over it in detail.

Firstly, over the past couple of weeks, Russian infantry have made slow but steady progress in the direction Prohres. These assaults took place along the railway line where infantry likely used the windbreaks on either side of the tracks for cover from Ukrainian FPV drones and artillery. Due to this being a very new frontline area, the trees are largely intact and provide excellent cover for the advancing Russians. This tactic would be much harder to pull off in, for example, Krasnohorivka.

These assaults were also supported by mechanised attacks from the north by Russian AFVs. Russia has been implementing the usage of BMPs a lot recently due to their agility and speed. The BMP-3 which has been used most here, has a maximum speed of 70km/hr making it the perfect choice for small-scale but high-speed assaults. The firing rate isn't very good however, at only 10 rounds per minute, so when travelling at high speeds it is difficult for them to destroy adjacent Ukrainian positions in the tree lines. This indicates that the positions in the treelines to the north of the railway line were likely empty in the first place and in the contested grey zone.

This also meant that Ukraine was focusing a lot on using FPV drones and artillery here, which resulted in heavy Russian losses, but the trade-off (in my opinion) was well worth it for Russia as these supporting assaults along with the main vector of attack plus flanking assaults from Yevhenivka created perfect conditions for the Russians to push Ukrainian forces from the tactical heights and out of Prohres.

The town itself is now likely contested, but it is possible that Russian forces have established full control over it, considering that they were geolocated in the centre of the settlement.

A side goal for the Russians was also to capture the rest of Yevhenivka. Yevhenivka is split into two parts: an eastern section and a western section. After days of intense fighting, the Russians managed to seize the eastern section. They then had to cross over 300 metres of terrain before reaching the western sector. To combat this, the Russians deployed motorcycles to speed across the open area as fast as possible. However Ukrainian FPV drones attacked the motorcycles repelling at least one small-scale assault.

Eventually it became obvious that Russian forces managed to cross the open area. It is unknown what they used to do this. It's possible that they implemented night attacks as not all Ukrainian drones have the new cheaper night-vision technology. All we know is that eventually, the Russian established a foothold in the eastern part of Yevhenivka and began conducting attacks on the northern flank threatening to encircle the remaining Ukrainian formations still in the village. Eventually, the AFU was forced to withdraw and the Russians seized full control over the settlement.

There was also a second but much smaller Russian advance in and around Novoselivka Persha. Leveraging their control over the northern agricultural buildings, they managed to make a quick advance into the centre of the village and successfully occupied almost everything north of the river.

They were also able to advance southwest of Novoselivka Persha, capturing positions in a treeline, further flattening out the front line.

I am getting very sick of Zelensky's forced mobilisation for a lost cause.

Approximate paths of today's Russian Shahed drones. Based on preliminary reports, Russia launched 16 Shahed drones at Ukraine over the past 24 hours. The following information is based on reports by Ukrainian monitor and radar telegram channels, as well as Local telegram channels.

Russian drones entered Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava and Kharkiv Oblasts. Of the 16 launched, as many as 6 may have hit their targets, however the Ukrainian general staff claims that only 3 were successful.

Konotop (Sumy Oblast) and especially Myrhorod (Poltava Oblast) were rocked by Russian Shaheds. These are likely the places that the drones struck the most.

I haven't seen Myrhorod get hit this hard by shaheds in a decent amount of time. I wonder if the airfield was targeted at all.

What village did they lose this time...

The fact that we are still yet to see a Russian flag raise over Krynky indicates that Ukraine likely maintains their drone superiority over the area.

The Ocheretyne breakthrough will go down in history as one of the worse Ukrainian military failures ever. It has allowed for a massive expansion of Russian control and the flower will continue to "bloom".

I think it will happen in 4 directions. One along the railway line which runs along the tactical heights, 1 in the direction of Pokrovsk, 1 to cut to the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway and 1 to get behind Toretsk.

The vector of attack from Toretsk will likely be supported by another flanking assault vector from Klishchiivka while the vector of attack along the railway line will likely be supported by an assault from Netailove.

This whole entire Donetsk front is about to shift and the last remaining Ukrainian strongholds in the Donbas are going to become frontline cities...

IDF: Air raid sirens are sounding in Eliat, Israel.