Not that speculation on losses matters. We will probably never truly know the real figures.

One of my sources from the Donbas sent me some clarifications on the third image based on their analysis of the situation.

They believe that all of the vehicles in that image belong to the Ukrainian military, rather than just the one that is circled.

Additionally, there is a tobacco shop there, which are always filled with soldiers in cities close to the frontline, but unfortunately, there are also lots of civilians there too for other reasons, meaning that it isn't 100% a military location.

Additionally, the claims of ammunition detonation are unverified, as rescue teams were able to access the arrival site, which they can't do when there's ammunition detonations.

The bomb used was most likely small, probably 250kg with a jet engine. It also hit a nearby clothing store. These clothing stores are around 50-75% military clothes, making it very popular among soldiers, but also among civilians, which would explain why there were quite a few civilian casualties reported.

~20 minutes until they reach the first launch lines in Engels district of Saratov Oblast.

Additionally, the total number of Tu-95s airborne has been updated to 4.

I still haven't gotten around to recreating my missile tracking map on my new computer, so for now I have a simplified map which I will use if there are missiles today.

The example on the map is a Kh-59 missile.

If the information on the position of the Tu-95s is true, then it would appear that they did not launch at the Engels launch lines, and are continuing their course towards the Caspian, via Volgograd Oblast.

Now to answer the age-old question of whether or not I think there will be a missile strike today. There were redeployments being carried out at the time of take-off from Olenya Air Base, which for some reason often means that there won't be a missile strike.

However, they didn't conduct a launch maneuver at Engels district, which is indicative of an impending real maneuver at Volgograd or the Caspian. However, because they didn't launch at Engels, they will almost certainly conduct a launch maneuver at some point, meaning that if they wanted to conduct a simulated launch maneuver, it would have to be at Volgograd or the Caspian to make it look real to the Ukrainians.

We can also rule out the possibility of it being training, as this never occurs when strategic comms are active beforehand.

Taking this, plus more, into account and the significance of each of these factors that come into play, I will put the probability of a missile attack occurring at 40%, but let's wait and see.

REMEMBER: Launch maneuvers do NOT necessarily mean missiles were launched, especially in today's case when there was nothing at Engels, which is the most common place for a simulated launch maneuver.

A launch maneuver was carried out from Volgograd Oblast.

If they were indeed launched, the estimated time for the missiles to reach Sumy Oblast of Ukraine from Volgograd Oblast is 70 minutes.

Upping the probability to 45% due to the location of the maneuver.

There are still ~20 Geran-2 drones in the airspace of Ukraine, significantly more than usual for this time of day.

Raising the probability to 50%

Due to the possibility of an imminent missile attack on Ukraine, all notifications on this channel will temporarily silenced so not to spam people with updates (they will come through quite quickly). If you are interested in the updates, make sure to keep an eye on the channel as you wont be notified otherwise.

The 4 Tu-95s continue their path towards the Caspian Sea, where the last launch lines are.

Geran-2 drones are currently targeting Vasylkiv city, in Kyiv Oblast, in which there is an air base. Its possible that this will be one of the targets for any potential missiles.

~ 20 minutes until the missiles are expected to reach Sumy Oblast (if they were launched).

Morale is low

Unconfirmed reports of missiles in Chernihiv Oblast

Confirmed

1st group of Kh-101s are flying west between Nizhyn and Chernihiv city

2 groups, 4 missiles in group 1, 3-4 in group 2.

Group two flies slightly further south, towards Kyiv.

Correction: 3 missiles in each group.