If they were indeed launched, the estimated time for the missiles to reach Sumy Oblast of Ukraine from Volgograd Oblast is 70 minutes.

Upping the probability to 45% due to the location of the maneuver.

There are still ~20 Geran-2 drones in the airspace of Ukraine, significantly more than usual for this time of day.

Raising the probability to 50%

Due to the possibility of an imminent missile attack on Ukraine, all notifications on this channel will temporarily silenced so not to spam people with updates (they will come through quite quickly). If you are interested in the updates, make sure to keep an eye on the channel as you wont be notified otherwise.

The 4 Tu-95s continue their path towards the Caspian Sea, where the last launch lines are.

Geran-2 drones are currently targeting Vasylkiv city, in Kyiv Oblast, in which there is an air base. Its possible that this will be one of the targets for any potential missiles.

~ 20 minutes until the missiles are expected to reach Sumy Oblast (if they were launched).

Morale is low

Unconfirmed reports of missiles in Chernihiv Oblast

Confirmed

1st group of Kh-101s are flying west between Nizhyn and Chernihiv city

2 groups, 4 missiles in group 1, 3-4 in group 2.

Group two flies slightly further south, towards Kyiv.

Correction: 3 missiles in each group.

Group 2 flies past Nizhyn, Chernihiv Oblast, towards Boryspil, Kyiv Oblast.

Group 1 flies to Kyiv, southwestern course.

Group 2 flies south in the general direction of Perelaslav.

7 missiles over Ukraine, 4 headed to Kyiv, 3 to Perelaslav (Kyiv Oblast).

1 missile (which will now be known as 2a) split off from group 2, and is flying towards Poltava Oblast / Pryluky, Chernihiv Oblast.

The other 3 missiles from group 2 follow missile 2a.

Updated information shows that there are 4 missiles in group 2 (not including missile 2a), all of which are flying into Poltava Oblast.

5 missiles are still in Kyiv Oblast
4 are in Poltava, flying to Lubny,
1 is in Poltava, flying to Lubny/Myrhorod.

Group 1 has reappeared. with all 5 missiles in northern Cherkasy Oblast, where they have been maneuvering. They are currently flying south towards Cherkasy city.

All missiles are flying towards Cherkasy. They might turn to Vasylkiv from here.