"In the next 72 hours, Iran, Yemen, Hezbollah, pro-Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria will launch a large-scale attack on Israel."

- The Pentagon

Regarding the situation with the first F-16s being sent to Ukraine:

Yesterday, footage and photos surfaced from Lviv showing F-16s flying over the region. The videos and photos are very clear, and it is obvious that they are indeed F-16s.

Shortly after this, an article from The Times came out stating that Ukraine has received 6 F-16s from The Netherlands, making The Netherlands the first country to send Ukraine the aircraft. The Telegraph also reported that they have information that Ukraine has already conducted combat missions with the F-16s, but so far there has been no proof of this, and I personally doubt it. It's too soon, and the infrastructure for the aircraft likely isn't ready considering Russia's Kh-101 and Kinzhal missile strikes (which I will talk about briefly further down this post).

These F-16s that flew over Lviv Oblast, likely took off from an airbase in Romania or Poland, as I doubt Ukraine has made the final decision on which airfield will accommodate them.

A Zelensky-critical Ukrainian telegram channel responded to these videos and photos, stating that “Those who give orders to demonstratively fly them during the day over Ukraine are like fucking clowns who want to relieve social tension in this way. The boys in the trenches are waiting for results, not a show for civilians.”

While this one report doesn't indicate widespread discontent among the Ukrainian population, it does show that these underlying issues have not gone unnoticed, at least for some people, especially the more realistic ones.

Additionally - from what I've heard - Ukraine doesn’t have the pilots necessary to fly the 65 promised aircraft, with only 12 pilots reportedly being available. Ukrainian officials stated that Ukraine needs at least 128 F-16s to match the Russian air force in the skies, so I simply can't see how Ukraine's western "allies" will train this many pilots and possibly co-pilots. It is unknown whether Ukraine will be/has received two-seater F-16s, but if a large amount of them are two-seaters, then training of the pilots and co-pilots will take much longer.

Back in May 2023, the US Congress stated that it will take around 18 months to train Ukrainian pilots. Considering it is almost certain that Ukraine doesn't have 65+ pilots trained to fly the aircraft, the F-16s might be nearly useless in 1.5-2 years' time. The time it takes for new pilots to be trained will also depend on when training is started. This could take as long as 6 months, or even longer.

By that time, Ukraine might have entered negotiations, and the front probably would have collapsed westwards in the direction of the Dnipro River considering Ukraine's current critical manpower shortages.

And finally, there is also the obvious issue of Russian missile and drone strikes. Russia will most definitely target the airfields that accommodate the F-16s, and considering Ukraine's depleted air defence coverage, if Ukraine has them stationed in the country, they will likely lose a lot of them.

Overall, I doubt the deliveries of F-16s to Ukraine will have a significant effect on the frontline. They have been overly hyped-up by western and Ukrainian media, and their likely lack of successes will disappoint many other Pro-Ukrainians.

Even if they do have a somewhat significant effect on the frontline situation, they won't be a gamechanger, and Russia will continue pushing westwards in an attritional manner until something breaks among the Ukrainian military, which might be in the form of running out of defences, running out of weapons, or even just running out of manpower in a certain sector of the front line...

The situation in Lashio, Myanmar according to @TheBorysk's (on twitter) interpretation from geolocations.

Heavy battles continue to rage in the city, despite reduced Junta resistance.

Green = Rebel control
Red = Junta control
Blue = UWSA control

Israel's Channel 12 reports that dozens of jets and several warships are being prepared and mobilized for possible offensive and defensive operations and sorties.

An Israeli airstrike on southern Lebanon reportedly killed 5 people, including women and children.

Update from the Pokrovsk direction:

Geolocated footage and reliable reports indicate that Russian forces continue to exploit the localised breakthrough and are making significant progress in the direction of the Pokrovsk agglomeration.

Russian forces continue to advance along the railway line which runs along the tactical heights and have likely reached the outskirts of Zhelanne. Russian assault groups have also been geolocated in the central part of Vesele, while reliable reports indicate that the village fell to the Russians last night.

Vesele was the last village in the direction of Hrodivka, so we can expect direct assaults on the town in the near future.

Russian forces also likely captured the tiny village of Tymofiivka further north and are reportedly making progress further west of the settlement.

Overall, the situation remains critical for the AFU. Morale is likely at an all-time low as the Russians continue their steady advance westwards.

Deepstate's new map update suggests an even worse situation for the AFU than I originally thought. They reported that Russian forces advanced in 5 more areas of the Pokrovsk direction. This includes in Zhelanne, near Vovche, in and around Ivanivka, near Tymofiivka, and near Vesele.

In Zhelanne, they reported that Russian forces advanced further along the railway line and entered the western part of of the settlement, while approaching the southern outskirts of Serhiivka. As these new positions are on the high ground, we can expect Zhelanne to fall in the near future.

As for the situation near Vovche, Russian forces reportedly advanced south and southwest of the village, capturing new positions in 5 treelines. This is a significant advance as it puts the Russians one step closer to getting behind the Ukrainian fortifications on the western bank of the Vovcha river.

Meanwhile near Vesele, Russian forces reportedly captured a 2.5km long treeline putting them just 1.3km from the eastern houses of Serhiivka. Russian forces also reportedly captured some new positions north of Vesele too.

In Ivanivka, the Russians likely forced a Ukrainian withdrawal from the treeline near the railway line by attacking westwards along another treeline further north. Russian forces reportedly entered Ivanivka on the same day, taking up positions in the southeastern houses.

And finally, near Tymofiivka, Russian forces reportedly advanced west and southwest of the village following its likely capture a couple of days ago.

Ballistic missiles have been striking the south of Ukraine all day.

Confirmed strikes in

Kropyvnytskyi
Zaporozhye
Dnepropetrovsk
Krivoy Rog
Nikolaev

Other strike include Sumy and Poltava.

The UN in Somalia stated that they are concerned about the potential usage of drones as a weapon by the al-Shabaab militant group.

Drones as a weapon continue to spread to other conflicts, even low-level ones like the Somali civil war.

Situation in the Middle East:

The US sent additional combat aircraft to the Middle East to help Israel;

Cyprus stopped all flights in the sky from 17:00. British bases in Cyprus are on full alert;

Night flights at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport have been canceled and the airspace over Israel is empty;

US intelligence expects a larger-scale attack, including on American bases, than the first direct attack by missiles and drones from Iran on Israel on April 13-14 of this year.

Explosions have been reported across occupied Luhansk Oblast over the past few hours as a result of Ukrainian UAV attacks. UAVs are also targeting Rostov and Krasnodar Krai.

Odesa was hit by 2 ballistics around an hour ago. Not sure what the target was.

I’m not surprised that some of the UAVs got through. Based on the reports from be seen, dozens were launched in multiple directions.

Warehouses and fuel depots were reportedly hit.

Update from the Pokrovsk direction:

Geolocated footage and reliable reports indicate that Russian forces are continuing to steadily advance westwards.

Firstly, geolocated footage shows that Russian forces advanced from Vovche and captured a large Ukrainian stronghold near the Vovcha river. This is the first in a series of fortifications on the western bank of the Vovcha river that Russia is trying to capture by hitting them from the rear.

This advance also indicates that Ukrainian forces withdrew from the fields to the east of the Vovcha river. However, based on reports, this withdrawal likely occurred a while ago.

Secondly, reliable reports indicate that Russian forces likely continue to advance in Zhelanne, and have expanded their foothold in the settlement in two directions. Russian forces have also likely advanced in the southern part of Serhiivka, where assault operations are reportedly underway. As Serhiivka is a relatively small village, I expect it will fall within the next 2-3 days.

Colours for the map:
Red = Confirmed Russian controlled territory
Yellow = Confirmed Russian advances
Purple = Likely Russian advances

NASA FIRMS data shows a large fire at Morozovsk airfield in Rostov Oblast following a Ukrainian UAV attack. Based on where the fires are, it is definitely possible that some aircraft were hit.

Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces advanced west of Klishchiivka on the tactical heights and captured the "fish tail" stronghold. This stronghold has been contested for months and following successful assault operations in the forests to the south, it appears that Russian forces restarted attacks and seized these key positions.

The immediate goal for the Klishchiivka sector is likely still to capture all the territory east of the Siverskyi-Donets canal.

Update from the Southern Donetsk front:

Geolocated footage from the past week shows that Russian forces have made five new advances here, so let's go over them.

Moving North to south: firstly, Russian forces supported by BTRs and BMPs advanced down the O0532 highway near Pobieda and captured positions south of the settlement. They managed to advance by ~1.9km. Multiple vehicles were damaged/destroyed by Ukrainian FPV drones.

Secondly, Russian forces advanced through the treelines north of Novomykhailivka and captured new positions with the support of Several AFVs and tanks. 5 AFVs and 1 tank were destroyed/damaged in the assault, but they were able to advance by ~830m.

In Kostyantynivka, Russian infantry were confirmed to have entered the town and captured the first few houses in the southeast of the settlement. Assault operations are likely underway on the agricultural buildings in the south of the settlement. Here they managed to advance by ~580m.

Further south near the O0532 road is where is where the most important advance is. Here, geolocated footage shows a Russian flag planted on the highway, indicating a Russian spearhead advance through the treelines east of the road. This is significant as it now means that Ukraine can't resupply Vuhledar without using dirt roads.

And finally, Russian forces advanced along a treeline in the direction of the O0532 road, either with the goal of reaching the road in another direction, or just to try to flatten out the frontline more.