Update from Kursk Oblast:

Ukrainian forces likely continue to make significant progress in Kursk Oblast, advancing as far as 11km into Russian territory. The main axis of attack is in the direction of the town of Korenevo, where - according to Russian sources - Ukrainian forces have seized 10 villages. There are also reports that Ukraine entered the village of Lebedevka, but do not control it yet.

One of the reasons for the quick Ukrainian advance is the fact that they are advancing downhill from their high-ground positions in Sumy Oblast. This is also why most, if not all of their attack vectors are heading north/northwest/northeast. There are significant heights further north, so I expect the Ukrainian advance will slow significantly in the coming days.

Another reason is likely the lack of Russian air support here. Ukrainian forces reportedly brought in lots of air defence with them, which prevents Russian aircraft from flying close to them, or forces them to fly too low for them to be very useful.

Meanwhile on the Sudzha axis, Ukrainian forces reportedly encircled Russians in the village of Oleshnyi, with no escape routes out of the village. Ukraine is also advancing along the highway to the western suburbs of Sudzha. As for Sudzha itself, the town is reportedly being prepared for battle.

Russian sources are reporting that a counterattack is being prepared.

Overall, this incursion appears to be larger than anyone - including me - expected it to be.

Colours for the map:
Blue = Confirmed Ukrainian control.
Green = Likely Ukrainian control.

A Ukrainian source reported that Russian forces are sending reinforcements over the Siversky Donets canal and are accumulating in the basements of houses.

Situation in Syria - Deir Ezzor:

Under the cover of artillery and mortar shells, Syrian government forces and their militias, supported by Iranian-backed groups launched a series of attacks over the Euphrates River. Violent clashed erupted in Theban and Diban on the eastern bank of the river, and Syrian government forces reportedly seized a number of positions.

The SDF (Syrian democratic forces) who are defending against the attacks imposed a complete curfew in the towns of Granij, Al-Kashkiya and Abu Hamam in Deir Ezzor countryside, coinciding with the launch of a large-scale combing campaign in search of local gunmen. It is reported that 2 civilians were killed as a result. These bombings indicates that Syrian government forces likely exercise a level of control over these towns.

Map from @Suriyak_maps

NAFOs are posting maps for the first time ever and getting tens of thousands of views. I wonder why...

Sumy Oblast has been under an air raid alert for over 25 hours.

Iranian Media: "Due to the large military maneuver; airlines are advised to avoid our airspace in the coming hours."

The Israeli air-force is on full alert.

I still doubt the strike will come tonight. Based on Iranian Media reports, it appears that these are joint military exercises between the Iranian armed forces and the Islamic revolutionary guard, although this could just be a mask for an attack on Israel.

I'd give it a 20% chance of occurring tonight.

Either way, I will keep you all updated.

#Urgent #Special

In response to the bombing of the Qasd militia with the support and cover of the American occupation forces of civilian residential areas in the towns of Al-Zubairi and Sa'lu on the other bank of the Euphrates River.

Arab tribal forces are shelling Qasd militia positions on the mountain of the city of Al-Basira in the northeastern countryside of Deir Ezzor with rocket launchers, and violent explosions are heard in the area.

#Voice_of_the_East

Syrian civil war heating up was not on my bingo card for August...

Meanwhile in Ukraine, Odesa Oblast is currently under an attack from Shaheds from multiple directions. If I have time, I will make a map of it later today.

Explosions were also reported in Odesa around 30 mins ago.

Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces continued to advance northwards in Kursk Oblast and captured the villages of Nizhnii Klin, Zeleni Shliyakh, Novoivanovka, Leonidovo and Aleksandriya.

Two Ukrainian columns panned out from this new control zone, one from Novoivanovka and one from Aleksandriya. The one that came from Novoivanovka was obviously trying to gain a foothold on the tactical heights. This indicates that Ukraine is/was planning to go much deeper into Kursk Oblast than originally expected, as many likely thought that they would stop at the hills.

Either way, footage shows the convoy being shelled, and Russian sources reported that it was destroyed and that the soldiers were scattered amongst the fields. The status of the second convoy is currently unknown.

Colours for the map:
Dark blue: Confirmed Ukrainian control
Light blue: Confirmed Ukrainian advances
Green: Likely Ukrainian advances

What's next for Kursk?

I expect the Ukrainian advance on the Koronevo axis will stop very soon as they approach the tactical heights. It is possible that - considering the Ukrainian desire to advance deep into Kursk Oblast - Ukraine will try to bypass these heights from the west using the forests in the low-lying ground.

As for Sudzha, they may attempt to attack the town from the north but would likely face Russian counterattacks from the ridgelines. This is a much more unlikely option for the AFU.

The most likely scenario will be a series of Russian counterattacks from the heights, pushing the AFU back across the border in the coming weeks.

Suriyak's new map shows Sudzha as under Ukrainian control. This is unlikely in my opinion as most sources are reporting that fighting has not even reached the town yet.

If this is true, it would be a major loss for Russia and a humiliating defeat, even if they can recover the town.

Pro-Russian source "Sofa general staff" posted a new map showing that Ukrainian forces opened up a new front in Kursk Oblast, and captured the villages of Gornal, Guevo, Kurilovka, Melovoi and Oleshnya.

Ukraine is likely trying to reach Sudzha from the south following their failed attempt to reach the town via the highway and the Sudzha checkpoint.

Russian forces reportedly launched their first counterattack in Kursk Oblast and apparently recaptured the village of Novoivanovka. This comes as Ukraine launched a mechanised assault north of the settlement which was reported to have been repelled.

The status of this village is unknown, but I will leave it as Ukrainian controlled until visual confirmation surfaces of the contrary.

I've seen some sources claiming that Ukrainian reconnaissance has reached the town of Koronevo (in the blue circle). I personally believe that this is a bit of a stretch. The frontline is fluid, but not that fluid.

While Koronevo is likely one of the primary objectives for this incursion/offensive, to reach it you would have to go over a line of tactical heights. If I had to guess, there is a Ukrainian presence around the green circle, and no further than that, but let's wait and see.

Update from Zhelanne: (Pokrovsk direction)

Multiple reliable sources are now reporting that Russian forces advanced deep into the settlement, and now control the majority of the low-rise residential area in the west. Russian forces likely attacked from three directions following Zhelanne being taken into a salient.

The agricultural buildings in the northeast are also likely under Russian control. This will make assaults on the town centre much easier for Russia as they now have a relatively solid staging ground. I expect the attacks on the centre will come from the west and the northeast, meeting up at the small pond in the middle.

Considering the rapidly deteriorating situation for the AFU in Zhelanne, expect the town to fall in the coming days.

MiG-31K airborne. The MiG-31K can carry the Kinzhal hypersonic missile. Air raid alerts were declared in all regions of Ukraine.