Alpha updates. 🪓 – Telegram
Alpha updates. 🪓
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Welcome to the Alpha Updates Telegram! 🌟

Here, you'll receive the latest scoop on upcoming IDOs, airdrops, altcoins, including lowcap gems, narrative-driven coins, meme coins etc

My twitter: https://twitter.com/axel_bitblaze69
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Nearly 150,000 BTC has been flushed out at a loss under $100K, pure panic selling.
But remember: weak hands leaving the market is how strong bottoms are built
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With U.S. jobless claims data rise to 232,000 higher than expected, the probability of a Fed rate cut has climbed back above 50%.

Next is inflation data, if it stays under control or moves further down toward the 2-2.5% range, the chances of a rate cut could increase significantly potentially reaching 70-80% or even higher.
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Market Watch

Crypto market sentiment has stayed in “extreme fear” for 7 straight days, with the index remaining below 20 for an entire week.

Meanwhile, whales are aggressively buying the dip, while short-term holders continue panic selling.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to rebound when traders’ realized-loss margin drops below -12%.
Right now, it’s at -16%.

TOP HEADLINES

• Mt. Gox transferred 10,423 $BTC ($936M) to Fresh Wallet

• New Hampshire Launches First Bitcoin-Backed Municipal Bond

Altcoin Update

• Ethereum unveils Ethereum Interop Layer, EIL
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Accumulation at historic levels.
Whales just scooped 375K BTC in just 30 days.

Wallets that never sell are loading up while the market is stuck in fear.
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Market Watch

Nvidia shattered expectations with a massive $57B Q3, triggering a strong risk-on rally across global markets.
AI-linked tokens reacted instantly ALCH (+40%) and STRK (+22%) led the surge.

Now, Bitcoin must break and close above the critical $93K resistance to maintain upward momentum and confirm a bullish continuation.


TOP HEADLINES

• The U.S. Treasury has less than 20 days left to submit its Bitcoin reserve plan

• INDIA TO LAUNCH RUPEE-PEGGED Stablecoin “ARC” IN Q1 2026


Altcoin Update

• Ondo secured FMA approval to offer tokenized US stocks and ETFs across 30 European countries.

• Two Bullish catalyst for Eth: 

- BlackRock files iShares Staked   Ethereum Trust  
- Fusaka upgrade drops Dec 3
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As per the 4-year cycle, Bitcoin has 3 bull years and the 4th year is the bear. All the people calling for the 4-year cycle to end… please show me where the 3rd green year is in this cycle?
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🚨 JPMorgan Issues Major Warning on MicroStrategy.

Global index provider MSCI is considering a new rule that would exclude companies whose crypto assets make up more than 50% of their total assets and this directly targets MicroStrategy.

If MSTR gets removed from MSCI indices, passive funds will be *forced to sell*, triggering an estimated $2.8B outflow.
If other index providers follow the same rule, total outflows could jump to $11.6B.

MSTR has dropped 40%+ in the past month, falling even more than Bitcoin.
Its market cap is around $51B, while its BTC holdings are worth $56B, and this gap may widen if index removal kills institutional demand.

MSCI’s final decision is expected before January 15, 2026.👀
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Friday brainstorming session for next week's 'ORGANIC' market movements 🌚
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The Bitcoin capitulation indicator has spiked to a new All-time high.

The last time it capitulated this hard, the price surged around 50%.However, this momentum shift does not occur overnight, a sustained market recovery typically takes several weeks to unfold.
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Bitcoin long/short ratio on Binance is at its highest level this cycle.

Longs continue to buy the dip with leverage, and continue to get liquidated. Watch for traders to capitulate, which could set the stage for a stronger recovery.

Yesterday there were 4 long bets for every short. After the flush, the long/short ratio has dropped to 2.3  but the imbalance is still massive.
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Alpha updates. 🪓
With U.S. jobless claims data rise to 232,000 higher than expected, the probability of a Fed rate cut has climbed back above 50%. Next is inflation data, if it stays under control or moves further down toward the 2-2.5% range, the chances of a rate cut could…
Rate-cut momentum is back on the table.

New York Fed President Williams, one of Powell’s key allies says there is room for a rate cut ‘in the near term.’

December rate cut probability jumps  to 71%.
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Despite the market conditions, miners aren’t showing any real selling pressure even though they’re currently “Extremely Underpaid.”

The U.S. alone holds ~40% of global hashrate, with a mining cost of ~$102K per BTC. The global average sits around ~$91K.

Miners holding is good for the market… but this situation may not last long if Bitcoin keeps sliding.
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Bottom confirmed at Alien Abduction Zone
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Compared to previous years, spot volumes have almost vanished as the chart shows. The orange area represents futures trading, while the purple reflects spot

Decrease in trading volumes in the futures market is something to be worried
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0 out of 30 indicators for a bull market peak... and not a single one has worked! And BTC is down ~35% from its ATH.

Imagine every so-called “Foolproof Model” getting destroyed as if the market is laughing at them in broad daylight...

Does this mean the model has changed? Or we haven’t even hit the ATH yet?

Or that all the indicators were just empty talks… created only to mislead retailers?

One signal is clear from the market so far: Crypto doesn’t move according to models… but according to the madness of liquidity and demand.
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