🚨 JPMorgan Issues Major Warning on MicroStrategy.
Global index provider MSCI is considering a new rule that would exclude companies whose crypto assets make up more than 50% of their total assets and this directly targets MicroStrategy.
If MSTR gets removed from MSCI indices, passive funds will be *forced to sell*, triggering an estimated $2.8B outflow.
If other index providers follow the same rule, total outflows could jump to $11.6B.
MSTR has dropped 40%+ in the past month, falling even more than Bitcoin.
Its market cap is around $51B, while its BTC holdings are worth $56B, and this gap may widen if index removal kills institutional demand.
MSCI’s final decision is expected before January 15, 2026.👀
Global index provider MSCI is considering a new rule that would exclude companies whose crypto assets make up more than 50% of their total assets and this directly targets MicroStrategy.
If MSTR gets removed from MSCI indices, passive funds will be *forced to sell*, triggering an estimated $2.8B outflow.
If other index providers follow the same rule, total outflows could jump to $11.6B.
MSTR has dropped 40%+ in the past month, falling even more than Bitcoin.
Its market cap is around $51B, while its BTC holdings are worth $56B, and this gap may widen if index removal kills institutional demand.
MSCI’s final decision is expected before January 15, 2026.👀
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Bitcoin long/short ratio on Binance is at its highest level this cycle.
Longs continue to buy the dip with leverage, and continue to get liquidated. Watch for traders to capitulate, which could set the stage for a stronger recovery.
Yesterday there were 4 long bets for every short. After the flush, the long/short ratio has dropped to 2.3 but the imbalance is still massive.
Longs continue to buy the dip with leverage, and continue to get liquidated. Watch for traders to capitulate, which could set the stage for a stronger recovery.
Yesterday there were 4 long bets for every short. After the flush, the long/short ratio has dropped to 2.3 but the imbalance is still massive.
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Alpha updates. 🪓
With U.S. jobless claims data rise to 232,000 higher than expected, the probability of a Fed rate cut has climbed back above 50%. Next is inflation data, if it stays under control or moves further down toward the 2-2.5% range, the chances of a rate cut could…
Rate-cut momentum is back on the table.
New York Fed President Williams, one of Powell’s key allies says there is room for a rate cut ‘in the near term.’
December rate cut probability jumps to 71%.
New York Fed President Williams, one of Powell’s key allies says there is room for a rate cut ‘in the near term.’
December rate cut probability jumps to 71%.
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Despite the market conditions, miners aren’t showing any real selling pressure even though they’re currently “Extremely Underpaid.”
The U.S. alone holds ~40% of global hashrate, with a mining cost of ~$102K per BTC. The global average sits around ~$91K.
Miners holding is good for the market… but this situation may not last long if Bitcoin keeps sliding.
The U.S. alone holds ~40% of global hashrate, with a mining cost of ~$102K per BTC. The global average sits around ~$91K.
Miners holding is good for the market… but this situation may not last long if Bitcoin keeps sliding.
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Bottom confirmed at Alien Abduction Zone
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0 out of 30 indicators for a bull market peak... and not a single one has worked! And BTC is down ~35% from its ATH.
Imagine every so-called “Foolproof Model” getting destroyed as if the market is laughing at them in broad daylight...
Does this mean the model has changed? Or we haven’t even hit the ATH yet?
Or that all the indicators were just empty talks… created only to mislead retailers?
One signal is clear from the market so far: Crypto doesn’t move according to models… but according to the madness of liquidity and demand.
Imagine every so-called “Foolproof Model” getting destroyed as if the market is laughing at them in broad daylight...
Does this mean the model has changed? Or we haven’t even hit the ATH yet?
Or that all the indicators were just empty talks… created only to mislead retailers?
One signal is clear from the market so far: Crypto doesn’t move according to models… but according to the madness of liquidity and demand.
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BTC Spot Trading Is Finally Waking Up
Bitcoin’s been bleeding since Oct 6, and over-leveraged traders just got wiped out, almost $5B OI vanished on Binance triggering massive liquidations.
But here’s the important part: spot trading volume is rising exactly as leverage gets wiped out.
This means money is rotating from leveraged bets to actual spot buying.
If this flow continues, any recovery from here will likely be stronger and more stable than the last few weeks.
Bitcoin’s been bleeding since Oct 6, and over-leveraged traders just got wiped out, almost $5B OI vanished on Binance triggering massive liquidations.
But here’s the important part: spot trading volume is rising exactly as leverage gets wiped out.
This means money is rotating from leveraged bets to actual spot buying.
If this flow continues, any recovery from here will likely be stronger and more stable than the last few weeks.
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Short-Term Investor SOPR: Re-entering the Panic Selling Zone
Earlier in April, we saw a similar pattern short-term entrants rushed in due to FOMO, then panic-sold at a loss… and right after that, the market snapped back with a strong technical rebound.
Currently, the short-term SOPR also hits the similar "panic selling phase" once again.👀
Earlier in April, we saw a similar pattern short-term entrants rushed in due to FOMO, then panic-sold at a loss… and right after that, the market snapped back with a strong technical rebound.
Currently, the short-term SOPR also hits the similar "panic selling phase" once again.👀
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Alpha updates. 🪓
Rate-cut momentum is back on the table. New York Fed President Williams, one of Powell’s key allies says there is room for a rate cut ‘in the near term.’ December rate cut probability jumps to 71%.
U.S. PPI & Core PPI data drops in 1 hour.
Expected (YoY): Core PPI: 2.7%
If the data comes in hotter than expected, rate-cut odds drop.
If it comes in as expected or cooler, the soft-landing narrative holds and rate-cut odds go up.
Expected (YoY): Core PPI: 2.7%
If the data comes in hotter than expected, rate-cut odds drop.
If it comes in as expected or cooler, the soft-landing narrative holds and rate-cut odds go up.
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Alpha updates. 🪓
U.S. PPI & Core PPI data drops in 1 hour. Expected (YoY): Core PPI: 2.7% If the data comes in hotter than expected, rate-cut odds drop. If it comes in as expected or cooler, the soft-landing narrative holds and rate-cut odds go up.
Is the Fed Giving In to Market Pressure? All Signals Now Point to an Imminent Cut
Just two weeks before the Fed’s final meeting of 2025, markets have seen a dramatic shift in rate-cut expectations, all within the month of November.
Despite no new inflation or jobs data, investors initially worried the Fed might pause its easing cycle to avoid triggering another wave of inflation. But that narrative flipped quickly.
The first catalyst was a 150-year historical study from the San Francisco Fed examining how tariffs impact inflation. The findings strengthened the argument for continuing rate cuts rather than delaying them.
Then came the bigger jolt:
New York Fed President John Williams said there is “room for more adjustment in the near term”, suggesting policy needs to move closer to neutral.
That single comment reshaped market sentiment almost instantly and the Rate-cut odds leaped from 30% → 71%
And now after yesterday’s cooler-than-expected PPI data, the Probability of a cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting surged to 85%.
At the same time, the 2-year Treasury yield, one of the clearest indicators of future Fed policy slid to 3.48%, perfectly aligning with the market’s belief that a rate cut is now on the table.
Just two weeks before the Fed’s final meeting of 2025, markets have seen a dramatic shift in rate-cut expectations, all within the month of November.
Despite no new inflation or jobs data, investors initially worried the Fed might pause its easing cycle to avoid triggering another wave of inflation. But that narrative flipped quickly.
The first catalyst was a 150-year historical study from the San Francisco Fed examining how tariffs impact inflation. The findings strengthened the argument for continuing rate cuts rather than delaying them.
Then came the bigger jolt:
New York Fed President John Williams said there is “room for more adjustment in the near term”, suggesting policy needs to move closer to neutral.
That single comment reshaped market sentiment almost instantly and the Rate-cut odds leaped from 30% → 71%
And now after yesterday’s cooler-than-expected PPI data, the Probability of a cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting surged to 85%.
At the same time, the 2-year Treasury yield, one of the clearest indicators of future Fed policy slid to 3.48%, perfectly aligning with the market’s belief that a rate cut is now on the table.
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Market Watch
For the first time since the drop, we’re finally seeing clear reversal candles, strong divergence, and a real slowdown in sellers’ momentum. Even ETF flows have turned net-positive for two straight days.
But the question remains: is this a real trend reversal or just another dead-cat bounce?
Right now, the entire market is being controlled by two key levels:
1- 98K, The Make-or-Break Zone
This is the most crucial level on the chart. If Bitcoin closes a weekly candle above 98K, the broader uptrend resumes. If not, then every bounce from here is simply another “attempt” inside a continuing downtrend.
2. 87K - Medium Support
This level offers decent rebounds, but it’s not strong enough to flip the overall trend. It can slow the fall, not reverse it.
TOP HEADLINES
• Upbit suffers $37 million hack on Solana assets, halts withdrawals.
• America’s fifth-largest bank US Bancorp tests stablecoin on Stellar.
Altcoin Update
• Solana Moves to Reduce SOL Inflation Again, New SIMD-0411 Proposal Filed
For the first time since the drop, we’re finally seeing clear reversal candles, strong divergence, and a real slowdown in sellers’ momentum. Even ETF flows have turned net-positive for two straight days.
But the question remains: is this a real trend reversal or just another dead-cat bounce?
Right now, the entire market is being controlled by two key levels:
1- 98K, The Make-or-Break Zone
This is the most crucial level on the chart. If Bitcoin closes a weekly candle above 98K, the broader uptrend resumes. If not, then every bounce from here is simply another “attempt” inside a continuing downtrend.
2. 87K - Medium Support
This level offers decent rebounds, but it’s not strong enough to flip the overall trend. It can slow the fall, not reverse it.
TOP HEADLINES
• Upbit suffers $37 million hack on Solana assets, halts withdrawals.
• America’s fifth-largest bank US Bancorp tests stablecoin on Stellar.
Altcoin Update
• Solana Moves to Reduce SOL Inflation Again, New SIMD-0411 Proposal Filed
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Market just witnessed the largest wave of Open Interest decline in this entire cycle.
This drop reflects how aggressively overleveraged positions were wiped out, triggering a massive round of liquidations.
Since Q2 2024, we’ve already seen three major liquidation flushes, first a 30% wipeout, then 35%, and now a massive ~40% flush, the biggest so far.
Interestingly, a clear pattern has emerged: every time OI sees a major decline, the following quarter sets new highs, and Bitcoin’s price has consistently followed that trajectory.
If this pattern repeats again, the next quarter could see both OI and Bitcoin price pushing into new high territory.
This drop reflects how aggressively overleveraged positions were wiped out, triggering a massive round of liquidations.
Since Q2 2024, we’ve already seen three major liquidation flushes, first a 30% wipeout, then 35%, and now a massive ~40% flush, the biggest so far.
Interestingly, a clear pattern has emerged: every time OI sees a major decline, the following quarter sets new highs, and Bitcoin’s price has consistently followed that trajectory.
If this pattern repeats again, the next quarter could see both OI and Bitcoin price pushing into new high territory.
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