Is Inflation Heating Up Again? And Why Is the Fed Still Comfortable Cutting Rates?
September’s data sent mixed signals, Headline - PCE climbed to 2.8%, its highest in almost a year. While core PCE, the one the Fed actually focuses on slipped to 2.8% instead of rising to 2.9%.
So on the surface, inflation looks hotter… but underneath, it’s still cooling.
That’s exactly why the Fed can continue with rate cuts. They don’t judge policy on one month of noise, they look at the broader direction. And right now, the direction shows core inflation steadily moving lower and economic momentum slowing just enough to reduce price pressures.
Inflation expectations are still stable which gives the Fed even more confidence to shift its focus toward supporting growth rather than tightening further.
September’s data sent mixed signals, Headline - PCE climbed to 2.8%, its highest in almost a year. While core PCE, the one the Fed actually focuses on slipped to 2.8% instead of rising to 2.9%.
So on the surface, inflation looks hotter… but underneath, it’s still cooling.
That’s exactly why the Fed can continue with rate cuts. They don’t judge policy on one month of noise, they look at the broader direction. And right now, the direction shows core inflation steadily moving lower and economic momentum slowing just enough to reduce price pressures.
Inflation expectations are still stable which gives the Fed even more confidence to shift its focus toward supporting growth rather than tightening further.
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ETHEREUM JUST FLIPPED VISA + MASTERCARD
Ethereum is on pace to settle nearly $6 TRILLION in stablecoin volume this quarter alone and Q4 isn’t even over.
Market Caps:
• Visa: $640B
• Mastercard: $498B
• Ethereum: $365B
Think long term.. the network with a smaller market cap is already doing more heavy lifting than the financial giants. And don't forget Ethereum isn’t just payments.
Ethereum is on pace to settle nearly $6 TRILLION in stablecoin volume this quarter alone and Q4 isn’t even over.
Market Caps:
• Visa: $640B
• Mastercard: $498B
• Ethereum: $365B
Think long term.. the network with a smaller market cap is already doing more heavy lifting than the financial giants. And don't forget Ethereum isn’t just payments.
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GM to the most important economic week… let’s get to what’s coming.
Tuesday: JOLTS data will give a clearer picture of how strong or weak the labor market really is.
Wednesday: All eyes on the Fed decision, followed by Powell’s press conference, which could shift market direction within minutes. With an 86% chance of a 25 bps cut, Wednesday is shaping up to be the most critical day
Thursday: Jobless claims will either support or challenge the current slowdown narrative.
Tuesday: JOLTS data will give a clearer picture of how strong or weak the labor market really is.
Wednesday: All eyes on the Fed decision, followed by Powell’s press conference, which could shift market direction within minutes. With an 86% chance of a 25 bps cut, Wednesday is shaping up to be the most critical day
Thursday: Jobless claims will either support or challenge the current slowdown narrative.
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Alpha updates. 🪓
U.S. PPI & Core PPI data drops in 1 hour. Expected (YoY): Core PPI: 2.7% If the data comes in hotter than expected, rate-cut odds drop. If it comes in as expected or cooler, the soft-landing narrative holds and rate-cut odds go up.
Everyone’s pricing in a 25 bps rate cut…
But what if the Fed surprises with a 50 bps cut?
Last year, September 2024, the same thing happened, markets expected 25 bps…
Fed delivered 50 bps, and the next quarter Bitcoin rallied to a new ATH at $108K by mid-December.
Of course, last year’s rally had extra fuel, Trump’s election win and buzz around a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. But still, If we get 50 bps, the upside will be worth watching..
But what if the Fed surprises with a 50 bps cut?
Last year, September 2024, the same thing happened, markets expected 25 bps…
Fed delivered 50 bps, and the next quarter Bitcoin rallied to a new ATH at $108K by mid-December.
Of course, last year’s rally had extra fuel, Trump’s election win and buzz around a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. But still, If we get 50 bps, the upside will be worth watching..
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Gn everyone. 💋
tomorrow is the FED meeting… all eyes on the rate cut and whatever Powell decides to say after.
markets are pricing an 86% chance of a 25 bps cut, $ETH and $BTC are already moving
and it would be nice if this momentum just continued for once. please 🙏
ETH outperforming BTC usually ends with some random bad news ruining the vibe… hoping this time it doesn’t.
just let it breathe a bit. please!
there’s also that small chance of a surprise.
so yeah, expecting the usual 25 bps. hoping for calm… and praying there isn’t that one headline that flips everything red again.
goodnight anyway.
tomorrow is the FED meeting… all eyes on the rate cut and whatever Powell decides to say after.
markets are pricing an 86% chance of a 25 bps cut, $ETH and $BTC are already moving
and it would be nice if this momentum just continued for once. please 🙏
ETH outperforming BTC usually ends with some random bad news ruining the vibe… hoping this time it doesn’t.
just let it breathe a bit. please!
there’s also that small chance of a surprise.
so yeah, expecting the usual 25 bps. hoping for calm… and praying there isn’t that one headline that flips everything red again.
goodnight anyway.
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The best thing about this pump is the market structure looks Healthy
Compare the spot trading volume at the April bottom vs the November 2025 bottom, it’s clear that spot volume in November has increased compared to that in April.
Even more interesting, in November Overall Spot volume grew far more than futures volume, signaling real value-driven buying rather than short-term speculative leverage.
Compare the spot trading volume at the April bottom vs the November 2025 bottom, it’s clear that spot volume in November has increased compared to that in April.
Even more interesting, in November Overall Spot volume grew far more than futures volume, signaling real value-driven buying rather than short-term speculative leverage.
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had an amazing experience at the F1 race last week shared it in the tweet below big thanks to Gate for giving me the pass
they’re also giving away a few passes and i’ve explained in the tweet how you can enter if you want to try your luck
https://x.com/axel_bitblaze69/status/1998699600589521037
they’re also giving away a few passes and i’ve explained in the tweet how you can enter if you want to try your luck
https://x.com/axel_bitblaze69/status/1998699600589521037
X (formerly Twitter)
Axel Bitblaze 🪓 (@Axel_bitblaze69) on X
I was in Dubai last weekend for F1 as @Gate invited me to experience the Paddock Club and man that was something else.
i’ve watched F1 for years but seeing it from that close was an amazing experience
standing right above the garages, watching the teams…
i’ve watched F1 for years but seeing it from that close was an amazing experience
standing right above the garages, watching the teams…
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65 days have passed since the All-time High.
After yesterday’s bounce, Bitcoin still needs 36% to break into new ATH territory again.
So the big question is, do we see a new peak soon… or is it a next-cycle story?
The market is quiet. Sentiment is mixed. Everyone’s waiting for that one spark that sets things off.
But if there’s one thing we’ve learned over the years… Bitcoin loves to surprise in both directions.
After yesterday’s bounce, Bitcoin still needs 36% to break into new ATH territory again.
So the big question is, do we see a new peak soon… or is it a next-cycle story?
The market is quiet. Sentiment is mixed. Everyone’s waiting for that one spark that sets things off.
But if there’s one thing we’ve learned over the years… Bitcoin loves to surprise in both directions.
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The FOMC did exactly what the market expected, a 25 bps cut.
But the real headline is something bigger: the Fed will buy $40B in Treasury bills over the next 30 days, starting December 12. These are “reserve management purchases,” meant to keep liquidity stable and bank reserves in the “ample” zone.
Some people are calling this QE because the balance sheet will expand but this is not real QE. True QE is when the Fed pumps hundreds of billions every month.
The bigger picture is the U.S. has to refinance nearly $9T in 2026. A rollover of that size can only be managed through some combo of rate cuts, QE, or money printing.
During COVID, rates were near 0%. Today they’re still above 3.5%. If the Fed doesn’t bring rates lower and later start QE, U.S. interest costs could cross $1 trillion per year by FY2026, bigger than the entire defense budget.
That’s why, in my opinion, QE will definitely start sometime between Q1–Q2 2026, and before that window, we’ll likely see more rate cuts before real QE kicks in.
But the real headline is something bigger: the Fed will buy $40B in Treasury bills over the next 30 days, starting December 12. These are “reserve management purchases,” meant to keep liquidity stable and bank reserves in the “ample” zone.
Some people are calling this QE because the balance sheet will expand but this is not real QE. True QE is when the Fed pumps hundreds of billions every month.
The bigger picture is the U.S. has to refinance nearly $9T in 2026. A rollover of that size can only be managed through some combo of rate cuts, QE, or money printing.
During COVID, rates were near 0%. Today they’re still above 3.5%. If the Fed doesn’t bring rates lower and later start QE, U.S. interest costs could cross $1 trillion per year by FY2026, bigger than the entire defense budget.
That’s why, in my opinion, QE will definitely start sometime between Q1–Q2 2026, and before that window, we’ll likely see more rate cuts before real QE kicks in.
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