Alpha updates. 🪓
U.S. PPI & Core PPI data drops in 1 hour. Expected (YoY): Core PPI: 2.7% If the data comes in hotter than expected, rate-cut odds drop. If it comes in as expected or cooler, the soft-landing narrative holds and rate-cut odds go up.
Everyone’s pricing in a 25 bps rate cut…
But what if the Fed surprises with a 50 bps cut?
Last year, September 2024, the same thing happened, markets expected 25 bps…
Fed delivered 50 bps, and the next quarter Bitcoin rallied to a new ATH at $108K by mid-December.
Of course, last year’s rally had extra fuel, Trump’s election win and buzz around a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. But still, If we get 50 bps, the upside will be worth watching..
But what if the Fed surprises with a 50 bps cut?
Last year, September 2024, the same thing happened, markets expected 25 bps…
Fed delivered 50 bps, and the next quarter Bitcoin rallied to a new ATH at $108K by mid-December.
Of course, last year’s rally had extra fuel, Trump’s election win and buzz around a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. But still, If we get 50 bps, the upside will be worth watching..
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Gn everyone. 💋
tomorrow is the FED meeting… all eyes on the rate cut and whatever Powell decides to say after.
markets are pricing an 86% chance of a 25 bps cut, $ETH and $BTC are already moving
and it would be nice if this momentum just continued for once. please 🙏
ETH outperforming BTC usually ends with some random bad news ruining the vibe… hoping this time it doesn’t.
just let it breathe a bit. please!
there’s also that small chance of a surprise.
so yeah, expecting the usual 25 bps. hoping for calm… and praying there isn’t that one headline that flips everything red again.
goodnight anyway.
tomorrow is the FED meeting… all eyes on the rate cut and whatever Powell decides to say after.
markets are pricing an 86% chance of a 25 bps cut, $ETH and $BTC are already moving
and it would be nice if this momentum just continued for once. please 🙏
ETH outperforming BTC usually ends with some random bad news ruining the vibe… hoping this time it doesn’t.
just let it breathe a bit. please!
there’s also that small chance of a surprise.
so yeah, expecting the usual 25 bps. hoping for calm… and praying there isn’t that one headline that flips everything red again.
goodnight anyway.
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The best thing about this pump is the market structure looks Healthy
Compare the spot trading volume at the April bottom vs the November 2025 bottom, it’s clear that spot volume in November has increased compared to that in April.
Even more interesting, in November Overall Spot volume grew far more than futures volume, signaling real value-driven buying rather than short-term speculative leverage.
Compare the spot trading volume at the April bottom vs the November 2025 bottom, it’s clear that spot volume in November has increased compared to that in April.
Even more interesting, in November Overall Spot volume grew far more than futures volume, signaling real value-driven buying rather than short-term speculative leverage.
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had an amazing experience at the F1 race last week shared it in the tweet below big thanks to Gate for giving me the pass
they’re also giving away a few passes and i’ve explained in the tweet how you can enter if you want to try your luck
https://x.com/axel_bitblaze69/status/1998699600589521037
they’re also giving away a few passes and i’ve explained in the tweet how you can enter if you want to try your luck
https://x.com/axel_bitblaze69/status/1998699600589521037
X (formerly Twitter)
Axel Bitblaze 🪓 (@Axel_bitblaze69) on X
I was in Dubai last weekend for F1 as @Gate invited me to experience the Paddock Club and man that was something else.
i’ve watched F1 for years but seeing it from that close was an amazing experience
standing right above the garages, watching the teams…
i’ve watched F1 for years but seeing it from that close was an amazing experience
standing right above the garages, watching the teams…
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65 days have passed since the All-time High.
After yesterday’s bounce, Bitcoin still needs 36% to break into new ATH territory again.
So the big question is, do we see a new peak soon… or is it a next-cycle story?
The market is quiet. Sentiment is mixed. Everyone’s waiting for that one spark that sets things off.
But if there’s one thing we’ve learned over the years… Bitcoin loves to surprise in both directions.
After yesterday’s bounce, Bitcoin still needs 36% to break into new ATH territory again.
So the big question is, do we see a new peak soon… or is it a next-cycle story?
The market is quiet. Sentiment is mixed. Everyone’s waiting for that one spark that sets things off.
But if there’s one thing we’ve learned over the years… Bitcoin loves to surprise in both directions.
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The FOMC did exactly what the market expected, a 25 bps cut.
But the real headline is something bigger: the Fed will buy $40B in Treasury bills over the next 30 days, starting December 12. These are “reserve management purchases,” meant to keep liquidity stable and bank reserves in the “ample” zone.
Some people are calling this QE because the balance sheet will expand but this is not real QE. True QE is when the Fed pumps hundreds of billions every month.
The bigger picture is the U.S. has to refinance nearly $9T in 2026. A rollover of that size can only be managed through some combo of rate cuts, QE, or money printing.
During COVID, rates were near 0%. Today they’re still above 3.5%. If the Fed doesn’t bring rates lower and later start QE, U.S. interest costs could cross $1 trillion per year by FY2026, bigger than the entire defense budget.
That’s why, in my opinion, QE will definitely start sometime between Q1–Q2 2026, and before that window, we’ll likely see more rate cuts before real QE kicks in.
But the real headline is something bigger: the Fed will buy $40B in Treasury bills over the next 30 days, starting December 12. These are “reserve management purchases,” meant to keep liquidity stable and bank reserves in the “ample” zone.
Some people are calling this QE because the balance sheet will expand but this is not real QE. True QE is when the Fed pumps hundreds of billions every month.
The bigger picture is the U.S. has to refinance nearly $9T in 2026. A rollover of that size can only be managed through some combo of rate cuts, QE, or money printing.
During COVID, rates were near 0%. Today they’re still above 3.5%. If the Fed doesn’t bring rates lower and later start QE, U.S. interest costs could cross $1 trillion per year by FY2026, bigger than the entire defense budget.
That’s why, in my opinion, QE will definitely start sometime between Q1–Q2 2026, and before that window, we’ll likely see more rate cuts before real QE kicks in.
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The IFP indicator is in red territory, means liquidity flow between exchanges is slowing down.
When IFP is healthy, liquidity is strong & order books are thick, helps price reacts smoothly.
But when IFP drops, even small trades can move price sharply.
At the same time, exchange balances are already at historic lows. Low supply may support price short term, but it also means thin order books. Once price starts moving, slippage increases fast and volatility spikes.
Low IFP + low exchange balances making Bitcoin vulnerable to sudden volatility risks.
When IFP is healthy, liquidity is strong & order books are thick, helps price reacts smoothly.
But when IFP drops, even small trades can move price sharply.
At the same time, exchange balances are already at historic lows. Low supply may support price short term, but it also means thin order books. Once price starts moving, slippage increases fast and volatility spikes.
Low IFP + low exchange balances making Bitcoin vulnerable to sudden volatility risks.
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Yesterday, BitMine acquired 102,259 ETH.
Yesterday, Strategy added 10,645 BTC.
Today, Bitcoin drops to $86K.
GM
Yesterday, Strategy added 10,645 BTC.
Today, Bitcoin drops to $86K.
GM
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🚨 $HYPE Supply Update
Hyper Foundation has proposed a validator vote to officially recognize the Assistance Fund $HYPE as burned 🔥
The address holds 37 million HYPE. If approved, these tokens will be treated as burned, reducing circulating supply by ~11%.
The final decision will be made through stake-weighted consensus, with voting concluding on Dec 24.
Hyper Foundation has proposed a validator vote to officially recognize the Assistance Fund $HYPE as burned 🔥
The address holds 37 million HYPE. If approved, these tokens will be treated as burned, reducing circulating supply by ~11%.
The final decision will be made through stake-weighted consensus, with voting concluding on Dec 24.
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Ethereum whales currently have almost no unrealized profit, meaning their average buying price is very close to the current ETH price.
Even after the recent price drop, they haven’t been selling instead, they have continued accumulating more ETH.
This behavior suggests they don’t see the cycle as over; if they did, they would be taking profits, not buying more. From the whales’ point of view, the current price range looks like a good accumulation zone, close to local lows
Even after the recent price drop, they haven’t been selling instead, they have continued accumulating more ETH.
This behavior suggests they don’t see the cycle as over; if they did, they would be taking profits, not buying more. From the whales’ point of view, the current price range looks like a good accumulation zone, close to local lows
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Long-term Bitcoin holders have sold close to 1 million BTC in the last 30 days, which is the highest level ever. In past cycles, this kind of selling usually shows up when the market is already deep into a bull run, and early buyers start booking profits instead of adding more risk.
At the same time, Bitcoin sharks have bought 269,822 BTC during the same period, the biggest accumulation seen in 13 years. This tells us that while older holders are taking money off the table, new large players are stepping in confidently and buying at these price levels.
When both things happen together, it usually means the market is changing hands, not breaking down. Bitcoin appears to be in a late-bull transition phase, where volatility picks up, leadership rotates from early holders to new strong hands, and price action becomes slower and more selective. This kind of phase usually comes with sharp moves in both directions, but it doesn’t mean the market has topped or a straight-line crash.
At the same time, Bitcoin sharks have bought 269,822 BTC during the same period, the biggest accumulation seen in 13 years. This tells us that while older holders are taking money off the table, new large players are stepping in confidently and buying at these price levels.
When both things happen together, it usually means the market is changing hands, not breaking down. Bitcoin appears to be in a late-bull transition phase, where volatility picks up, leadership rotates from early holders to new strong hands, and price action becomes slower and more selective. This kind of phase usually comes with sharp moves in both directions, but it doesn’t mean the market has topped or a straight-line crash.
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