What a crazy spike in BTC whale accumulation in December.
Nothing like this has ever happened in Bitcoin’s entire history.
Big wallets were buying heavily while price was under pressure. Real supply got absorbed there.
Now let’s see if this accumulation spike actually shows up on the price as well.
Nothing like this has ever happened in Bitcoin’s entire history.
Big wallets were buying heavily while price was under pressure. Real supply got absorbed there.
Now let’s see if this accumulation spike actually shows up on the price as well.
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Alpha updates. 🪓
What a crazy spike in BTC whale accumulation in December. Nothing like this has ever happened in Bitcoin’s entire history. Big wallets were buying heavily while price was under pressure. Real supply got absorbed there. Now let’s see if this accumulation…
Correction on the December “Whale Accumulation” Spike.
The spike looked historic, but the data was misleading due to a massive internal movement by Coinbase, not fresh buying.
Nearly 800,000 BTC was moved by Coinbase during that period. These weren’t market buys. Coinbase consolidated its UTXOs, which distorted multiple on chain cohort metrics.
What actually happened:
Coinbase destroyed smaller UTXOs and created larger consolidated ones.
Here’s what actually changed under the hood:
• 10-100 BTC: −259,000 BTC
• 100-1,000 BTC: −417,000 BTC
• 1,000-10,000 BTC: +687,000 BTC
This created the illusion of aggressive whale accumulation.
The spike looked historic, but the data was misleading due to a massive internal movement by Coinbase, not fresh buying.
Nearly 800,000 BTC was moved by Coinbase during that period. These weren’t market buys. Coinbase consolidated its UTXOs, which distorted multiple on chain cohort metrics.
What actually happened:
Coinbase destroyed smaller UTXOs and created larger consolidated ones.
Here’s what actually changed under the hood:
• 10-100 BTC: −259,000 BTC
• 100-1,000 BTC: −417,000 BTC
• 1,000-10,000 BTC: +687,000 BTC
This created the illusion of aggressive whale accumulation.
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Whale balance topped out around August 2025. Since then, it’s been steady distribution.
Roughly 450-500k BTC has been sold so far and almost 200k BTC of that dumped just in December. That’s not light selling. Key detail people missing is this wasn’t old whales exiting. The bulk of the supply came from new whales fresh big players distributing hard.
And yet… price didn’t break. December held up surprisingly well. Every dip kept getting bought, mainly by Sharks (100-1k BTC) stepping in and absorbing supply.
Roughly 450-500k BTC has been sold so far and almost 200k BTC of that dumped just in December. That’s not light selling. Key detail people missing is this wasn’t old whales exiting. The bulk of the supply came from new whales fresh big players distributing hard.
And yet… price didn’t break. December held up surprisingly well. Every dip kept getting bought, mainly by Sharks (100-1k BTC) stepping in and absorbing supply.
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4-Year Cycle Is Over. Crypto Has Entered a New Phase
The “4 year crypto cycle” didn’t come from halving even though most people think it did. The real reason behind past cycles was global liquidity, which started after the 2008 financial crisis.
Every major bull run ‘2013, 2017, 2021’ happened when central banks were easing, meaning liquidity was being injected into the system.
And every brutal bear market ‘2014, 2018, 2022’ came right after tightening, when liquidity was pulled out.
Halving helped, no doubt..but liquidity was always the main driver.
The 4-year cycle stayed perfectly aligned… until COVID.
The aggressive money printing after COVID completely broke the System.
In this cycle, 2023 and 2024 were years of tight liquidity, yet Bitcoin still performed insanely well.That’s because most of the move didn’t come from money printing, it came from institutions, not liquidity easing.
In 2023, BTC rallied on Spot ETF speculation.
In Jan 2024, ETFs got approved and suddenly the wealthiest generation ‘Boomers’ got regulated access to Bitcoin.
That’s when, for the first time in history, Bitcoin made a new ATH before halving.
This wasn’t retail hype. This was BlackRock, Fidelity, and structured ETF flows demand that never existed in previous cycles.Price went up without financial easing.
Now look at liquidity timing.
The easing conditions that powered the '2013, 2017, and 2021' bull runs are not in 2023-2025.
Those conditions are instead aligning toward 2026, with QT ending in December and QE expected to resume later this year.
Historically, meaningful risk-asset expansions have occurred after liquidity turns accommodative, not before.
What we are seeing now doesn’t fit a traditional 4 year framework.
This cycle is being shaped by institutional flow first, liquidity second, resulting in a structurally extended market cycle.
The 4 year cycle didn’t end because crypto fundamentals weakened.
It ended because the global liquidity regime shifted.
The “4 year crypto cycle” didn’t come from halving even though most people think it did. The real reason behind past cycles was global liquidity, which started after the 2008 financial crisis.
Every major bull run ‘2013, 2017, 2021’ happened when central banks were easing, meaning liquidity was being injected into the system.
And every brutal bear market ‘2014, 2018, 2022’ came right after tightening, when liquidity was pulled out.
Halving helped, no doubt..but liquidity was always the main driver.
The 4-year cycle stayed perfectly aligned… until COVID.
The aggressive money printing after COVID completely broke the System.
In this cycle, 2023 and 2024 were years of tight liquidity, yet Bitcoin still performed insanely well.That’s because most of the move didn’t come from money printing, it came from institutions, not liquidity easing.
In 2023, BTC rallied on Spot ETF speculation.
In Jan 2024, ETFs got approved and suddenly the wealthiest generation ‘Boomers’ got regulated access to Bitcoin.
That’s when, for the first time in history, Bitcoin made a new ATH before halving.
This wasn’t retail hype. This was BlackRock, Fidelity, and structured ETF flows demand that never existed in previous cycles.Price went up without financial easing.
Now look at liquidity timing.
The easing conditions that powered the '2013, 2017, and 2021' bull runs are not in 2023-2025.
Those conditions are instead aligning toward 2026, with QT ending in December and QE expected to resume later this year.
Historically, meaningful risk-asset expansions have occurred after liquidity turns accommodative, not before.
What we are seeing now doesn’t fit a traditional 4 year framework.
This cycle is being shaped by institutional flow first, liquidity second, resulting in a structurally extended market cycle.
The 4 year cycle didn’t end because crypto fundamentals weakened.
It ended because the global liquidity regime shifted.
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In 2025, the Fed cut rates three times and gold made New All-time Highs. Most people saw this and immediately jumped to one conclusion: Recession Is Coming
That’s the wrong read.
Gold going up doesn’t automatically mean the economy is about to crash. Gold also moves because of geopolitics, inflation hedging, and uncertainty.. we’ll get to that later. For now, focus on the Rate Cuts.
Here’s the key thing most people miss: Not all rate cuts are the same.
There are preventive rate cuts and Reactive (or emergency) rate cuts.
Reactive rate cuts happen when something is already broken.
Think 2008.. banks collapsing.
Or 2020 COVID panic. The Fed slashes rates to zero to save the system. That’s Reactive or Emergency cuts.
But 2025 looks nothing like that.
Stocks were at All-time Highs, unemployment was around 4.3%, and GDP numbers are great and Inflation is under control. That’s not a crisis environment.
Powell is doing maintenance, not emergency repairs.
Another big difference is the speed of slashing rates.
In real crises, the Fed cuts aggressively.. 75 to 100 bps at once, again and again to near zero.
In 2025, cuts were slow and controlled (25 bps) easing gently from around 4.5% to 3.5-3.75%.
That’s trimming, not slashing. We’ve seen this before.
In 1995, Greenspan did similar preventive cuts. The result? Markets rallied nearly 200% over the next five years.
The Fed saw unemployment slowly rising from 3.5% to 4.3% and stepped in early before things got ugly.
When policy shifts from tightening to careful easing without stress in the system, it usually supports asset prices rather than destroys them.
This isn’t the Fed reacting to a recession. It’s the Fed trying to make sure one never shows up.
That’s the wrong read.
Gold going up doesn’t automatically mean the economy is about to crash. Gold also moves because of geopolitics, inflation hedging, and uncertainty.. we’ll get to that later. For now, focus on the Rate Cuts.
Here’s the key thing most people miss: Not all rate cuts are the same.
There are preventive rate cuts and Reactive (or emergency) rate cuts.
Reactive rate cuts happen when something is already broken.
Think 2008.. banks collapsing.
Or 2020 COVID panic. The Fed slashes rates to zero to save the system. That’s Reactive or Emergency cuts.
But 2025 looks nothing like that.
Stocks were at All-time Highs, unemployment was around 4.3%, and GDP numbers are great and Inflation is under control. That’s not a crisis environment.
Powell is doing maintenance, not emergency repairs.
Another big difference is the speed of slashing rates.
In real crises, the Fed cuts aggressively.. 75 to 100 bps at once, again and again to near zero.
In 2025, cuts were slow and controlled (25 bps) easing gently from around 4.5% to 3.5-3.75%.
That’s trimming, not slashing. We’ve seen this before.
In 1995, Greenspan did similar preventive cuts. The result? Markets rallied nearly 200% over the next five years.
The Fed saw unemployment slowly rising from 3.5% to 4.3% and stepped in early before things got ugly.
When policy shifts from tightening to careful easing without stress in the system, it usually supports asset prices rather than destroys them.
This isn’t the Fed reacting to a recession. It’s the Fed trying to make sure one never shows up.
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Meme Coins: Signs of a Comeback?
Since the meme coin frenzy ended in Nov 2024, meme coins slowly faded out of the market. By Dec 2025, their share within the altcoin market dropped to a historical low. Basically, nobody cared anymore.
In the past, whenever meme coins reached this level of irrelevance, a new meme season eventually followed.
In Nov 2024, meme coins were at peak, made up ~11% of the altcoin market cap, by Dec 2025, it fell to ~3%
Over the last few days, as major meme coins started pumping, this ratio has begun to move up again.
This doesn’t mean “meme season is confirmed.” It simply means the conditions that usually appear before meme rallies are forming again.
Since the meme coin frenzy ended in Nov 2024, meme coins slowly faded out of the market. By Dec 2025, their share within the altcoin market dropped to a historical low. Basically, nobody cared anymore.
In the past, whenever meme coins reached this level of irrelevance, a new meme season eventually followed.
In Nov 2024, meme coins were at peak, made up ~11% of the altcoin market cap, by Dec 2025, it fell to ~3%
Over the last few days, as major meme coins started pumping, this ratio has begun to move up again.
This doesn’t mean “meme season is confirmed.” It simply means the conditions that usually appear before meme rallies are forming again.
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I’ve been tracking LINK closely and while the chart structure looks healthy, the real signal is coming from what’s happening under the surface making LINK more attractive in the long term.
Recently, two major developments have significantly strengthened Chainlink’s fundamentals and are quietly attracting smart money.
First:
In December 2025, Grayscale launched a US-based LINK ETF. Since launch, there hasn’t been a single day of net negative outflows. That’s not a small detail especially in this kind of market.
Second and much bigger:
In October 2025, SWIFT integrated Chainlink’s CCIP.
This integration allows SWIFT to connect with 70+ blockchains.
FYI, SWIFT is the global banking messaging network used by Banks worldwide to move Trillions of dollars every single day.
Most of the market expected a Ripple–SWIFT connection. Instead, institutions chose Chainlink as the interoperability layer, not XRP. LoL
Recently, two major developments have significantly strengthened Chainlink’s fundamentals and are quietly attracting smart money.
First:
In December 2025, Grayscale launched a US-based LINK ETF. Since launch, there hasn’t been a single day of net negative outflows. That’s not a small detail especially in this kind of market.
Second and much bigger:
In October 2025, SWIFT integrated Chainlink’s CCIP.
This integration allows SWIFT to connect with 70+ blockchains.
FYI, SWIFT is the global banking messaging network used by Banks worldwide to move Trillions of dollars every single day.
Most of the market expected a Ripple–SWIFT connection. Instead, institutions chose Chainlink as the interoperability layer, not XRP. LoL
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Coinbase premium: first green bean sprout in 20 days, hitting a positive delta at 94K.
Good to see sentiment holding back again. After many weeks, the Fear and Greed Index has moved from Extreme Fear to Neutral.
The market is healing. Now please don’t drop any 10/10 level bomb, and Mr. President, please don’t start any new war again.
Let us crypto peeps have our time.
Good to see sentiment holding back again. After many weeks, the Fear and Greed Index has moved from Extreme Fear to Neutral.
The market is healing. Now please don’t drop any 10/10 level bomb, and Mr. President, please don’t start any new war again.
Let us crypto peeps have our time.
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Sharp Drop in Ethereum Validator Exit Queue 👀
For the first time since July, Ethereum’s validator exit queue has almost vanished, sitting at just 32 ETH.
This means very few validators want to leave the network right now.
Meanwhile staking demand is picking up. More ETH is being locked in, fewer validators are cashing out.
Net result, confidence in Ethereum is improving, and long term conviction looks stronger than it has in months.
For the first time since July, Ethereum’s validator exit queue has almost vanished, sitting at just 32 ETH.
This means very few validators want to leave the network right now.
Meanwhile staking demand is picking up. More ETH is being locked in, fewer validators are cashing out.
Net result, confidence in Ethereum is improving, and long term conviction looks stronger than it has in months.
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Just as crypto shows signs of healing.
The World:
🇺🇸: U.S. may impose 500% tariffs on countries buying oil from Russia, including India, China, and Brazil
🇨🇳: CHINA ISSUES A STARK WARNING TO THE UNITED STATES “If you want war, war will come. If you seek to destroy China, you will be destroyed.”
🇷🇺: Russia has deployed a submarine and naval assets to escort the oil tanker Marinera (formerly Bella 1) across the North Atlantic
🇩🇰: Denmark warns it will defend its territory if the US targets Greenland. Tensions in the Arctic are heating up.
War, trade war, oil, geo political tensions all at once.
The World:
🇺🇸: U.S. may impose 500% tariffs on countries buying oil from Russia, including India, China, and Brazil
🇨🇳: CHINA ISSUES A STARK WARNING TO THE UNITED STATES “If you want war, war will come. If you seek to destroy China, you will be destroyed.”
🇷🇺: Russia has deployed a submarine and naval assets to escort the oil tanker Marinera (formerly Bella 1) across the North Atlantic
🇩🇰: Denmark warns it will defend its territory if the US targets Greenland. Tensions in the Arctic are heating up.
War, trade war, oil, geo political tensions all at once.
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Retail is still missing
Bitcoin’s 30 day retail demand is negative, meaning small investors haven’t jumped in yet. No FOMO, no crowd chasing the move.
From long term perspective, this is usually the phase where whales and smart money builds position. Retail comes later, when prices already feel safe.
Bitcoin’s 30 day retail demand is negative, meaning small investors haven’t jumped in yet. No FOMO, no crowd chasing the move.
From long term perspective, this is usually the phase where whales and smart money builds position. Retail comes later, when prices already feel safe.
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If you DCA $100 per week into Bitcoin starting now, you can stack 0.1 BTC in ~2.5 years.
If you wait 2 years and then start the same DCA, it will take 5 years to reach 0.1 BTC (~2032)
If you wait 5 years, the same goal will take 12 years (~2043)
Same strategy, same amount.
Only difference is when you start.
Bitcoin is not an investment, it's a store of value. The sooner this is realized, the clearer it becomes that Bitcoin is never overvalued.
If you wait 2 years and then start the same DCA, it will take 5 years to reach 0.1 BTC (~2032)
If you wait 5 years, the same goal will take 12 years (~2043)
Same strategy, same amount.
Only difference is when you start.
Bitcoin is not an investment, it's a store of value. The sooner this is realized, the clearer it becomes that Bitcoin is never overvalued.
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