In 2025, the Fed cut rates three times and gold made New All-time Highs. Most people saw this and immediately jumped to one conclusion: Recession Is Coming
That’s the wrong read.
Gold going up doesn’t automatically mean the economy is about to crash. Gold also moves because of geopolitics, inflation hedging, and uncertainty.. we’ll get to that later. For now, focus on the Rate Cuts.
Here’s the key thing most people miss: Not all rate cuts are the same.
There are preventive rate cuts and Reactive (or emergency) rate cuts.
Reactive rate cuts happen when something is already broken.
Think 2008.. banks collapsing.
Or 2020 COVID panic. The Fed slashes rates to zero to save the system. That’s Reactive or Emergency cuts.
But 2025 looks nothing like that.
Stocks were at All-time Highs, unemployment was around 4.3%, and GDP numbers are great and Inflation is under control. That’s not a crisis environment.
Powell is doing maintenance, not emergency repairs.
Another big difference is the speed of slashing rates.
In real crises, the Fed cuts aggressively.. 75 to 100 bps at once, again and again to near zero.
In 2025, cuts were slow and controlled (25 bps) easing gently from around 4.5% to 3.5-3.75%.
That’s trimming, not slashing. We’ve seen this before.
In 1995, Greenspan did similar preventive cuts. The result? Markets rallied nearly 200% over the next five years.
The Fed saw unemployment slowly rising from 3.5% to 4.3% and stepped in early before things got ugly.
When policy shifts from tightening to careful easing without stress in the system, it usually supports asset prices rather than destroys them.
This isn’t the Fed reacting to a recession. It’s the Fed trying to make sure one never shows up.
That’s the wrong read.
Gold going up doesn’t automatically mean the economy is about to crash. Gold also moves because of geopolitics, inflation hedging, and uncertainty.. we’ll get to that later. For now, focus on the Rate Cuts.
Here’s the key thing most people miss: Not all rate cuts are the same.
There are preventive rate cuts and Reactive (or emergency) rate cuts.
Reactive rate cuts happen when something is already broken.
Think 2008.. banks collapsing.
Or 2020 COVID panic. The Fed slashes rates to zero to save the system. That’s Reactive or Emergency cuts.
But 2025 looks nothing like that.
Stocks were at All-time Highs, unemployment was around 4.3%, and GDP numbers are great and Inflation is under control. That’s not a crisis environment.
Powell is doing maintenance, not emergency repairs.
Another big difference is the speed of slashing rates.
In real crises, the Fed cuts aggressively.. 75 to 100 bps at once, again and again to near zero.
In 2025, cuts were slow and controlled (25 bps) easing gently from around 4.5% to 3.5-3.75%.
That’s trimming, not slashing. We’ve seen this before.
In 1995, Greenspan did similar preventive cuts. The result? Markets rallied nearly 200% over the next five years.
The Fed saw unemployment slowly rising from 3.5% to 4.3% and stepped in early before things got ugly.
When policy shifts from tightening to careful easing without stress in the system, it usually supports asset prices rather than destroys them.
This isn’t the Fed reacting to a recession. It’s the Fed trying to make sure one never shows up.
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Meme Coins: Signs of a Comeback?
Since the meme coin frenzy ended in Nov 2024, meme coins slowly faded out of the market. By Dec 2025, their share within the altcoin market dropped to a historical low. Basically, nobody cared anymore.
In the past, whenever meme coins reached this level of irrelevance, a new meme season eventually followed.
In Nov 2024, meme coins were at peak, made up ~11% of the altcoin market cap, by Dec 2025, it fell to ~3%
Over the last few days, as major meme coins started pumping, this ratio has begun to move up again.
This doesn’t mean “meme season is confirmed.” It simply means the conditions that usually appear before meme rallies are forming again.
Since the meme coin frenzy ended in Nov 2024, meme coins slowly faded out of the market. By Dec 2025, their share within the altcoin market dropped to a historical low. Basically, nobody cared anymore.
In the past, whenever meme coins reached this level of irrelevance, a new meme season eventually followed.
In Nov 2024, meme coins were at peak, made up ~11% of the altcoin market cap, by Dec 2025, it fell to ~3%
Over the last few days, as major meme coins started pumping, this ratio has begun to move up again.
This doesn’t mean “meme season is confirmed.” It simply means the conditions that usually appear before meme rallies are forming again.
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I’ve been tracking LINK closely and while the chart structure looks healthy, the real signal is coming from what’s happening under the surface making LINK more attractive in the long term.
Recently, two major developments have significantly strengthened Chainlink’s fundamentals and are quietly attracting smart money.
First:
In December 2025, Grayscale launched a US-based LINK ETF. Since launch, there hasn’t been a single day of net negative outflows. That’s not a small detail especially in this kind of market.
Second and much bigger:
In October 2025, SWIFT integrated Chainlink’s CCIP.
This integration allows SWIFT to connect with 70+ blockchains.
FYI, SWIFT is the global banking messaging network used by Banks worldwide to move Trillions of dollars every single day.
Most of the market expected a Ripple–SWIFT connection. Instead, institutions chose Chainlink as the interoperability layer, not XRP. LoL
Recently, two major developments have significantly strengthened Chainlink’s fundamentals and are quietly attracting smart money.
First:
In December 2025, Grayscale launched a US-based LINK ETF. Since launch, there hasn’t been a single day of net negative outflows. That’s not a small detail especially in this kind of market.
Second and much bigger:
In October 2025, SWIFT integrated Chainlink’s CCIP.
This integration allows SWIFT to connect with 70+ blockchains.
FYI, SWIFT is the global banking messaging network used by Banks worldwide to move Trillions of dollars every single day.
Most of the market expected a Ripple–SWIFT connection. Instead, institutions chose Chainlink as the interoperability layer, not XRP. LoL
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Coinbase premium: first green bean sprout in 20 days, hitting a positive delta at 94K.
Good to see sentiment holding back again. After many weeks, the Fear and Greed Index has moved from Extreme Fear to Neutral.
The market is healing. Now please don’t drop any 10/10 level bomb, and Mr. President, please don’t start any new war again.
Let us crypto peeps have our time.
Good to see sentiment holding back again. After many weeks, the Fear and Greed Index has moved from Extreme Fear to Neutral.
The market is healing. Now please don’t drop any 10/10 level bomb, and Mr. President, please don’t start any new war again.
Let us crypto peeps have our time.
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Sharp Drop in Ethereum Validator Exit Queue 👀
For the first time since July, Ethereum’s validator exit queue has almost vanished, sitting at just 32 ETH.
This means very few validators want to leave the network right now.
Meanwhile staking demand is picking up. More ETH is being locked in, fewer validators are cashing out.
Net result, confidence in Ethereum is improving, and long term conviction looks stronger than it has in months.
For the first time since July, Ethereum’s validator exit queue has almost vanished, sitting at just 32 ETH.
This means very few validators want to leave the network right now.
Meanwhile staking demand is picking up. More ETH is being locked in, fewer validators are cashing out.
Net result, confidence in Ethereum is improving, and long term conviction looks stronger than it has in months.
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Just as crypto shows signs of healing.
The World:
🇺🇸: U.S. may impose 500% tariffs on countries buying oil from Russia, including India, China, and Brazil
🇨🇳: CHINA ISSUES A STARK WARNING TO THE UNITED STATES “If you want war, war will come. If you seek to destroy China, you will be destroyed.”
🇷🇺: Russia has deployed a submarine and naval assets to escort the oil tanker Marinera (formerly Bella 1) across the North Atlantic
🇩🇰: Denmark warns it will defend its territory if the US targets Greenland. Tensions in the Arctic are heating up.
War, trade war, oil, geo political tensions all at once.
The World:
🇺🇸: U.S. may impose 500% tariffs on countries buying oil from Russia, including India, China, and Brazil
🇨🇳: CHINA ISSUES A STARK WARNING TO THE UNITED STATES “If you want war, war will come. If you seek to destroy China, you will be destroyed.”
🇷🇺: Russia has deployed a submarine and naval assets to escort the oil tanker Marinera (formerly Bella 1) across the North Atlantic
🇩🇰: Denmark warns it will defend its territory if the US targets Greenland. Tensions in the Arctic are heating up.
War, trade war, oil, geo political tensions all at once.
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Retail is still missing
Bitcoin’s 30 day retail demand is negative, meaning small investors haven’t jumped in yet. No FOMO, no crowd chasing the move.
From long term perspective, this is usually the phase where whales and smart money builds position. Retail comes later, when prices already feel safe.
Bitcoin’s 30 day retail demand is negative, meaning small investors haven’t jumped in yet. No FOMO, no crowd chasing the move.
From long term perspective, this is usually the phase where whales and smart money builds position. Retail comes later, when prices already feel safe.
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If you DCA $100 per week into Bitcoin starting now, you can stack 0.1 BTC in ~2.5 years.
If you wait 2 years and then start the same DCA, it will take 5 years to reach 0.1 BTC (~2032)
If you wait 5 years, the same goal will take 12 years (~2043)
Same strategy, same amount.
Only difference is when you start.
Bitcoin is not an investment, it's a store of value. The sooner this is realized, the clearer it becomes that Bitcoin is never overvalued.
If you wait 2 years and then start the same DCA, it will take 5 years to reach 0.1 BTC (~2032)
If you wait 5 years, the same goal will take 12 years (~2043)
Same strategy, same amount.
Only difference is when you start.
Bitcoin is not an investment, it's a store of value. The sooner this is realized, the clearer it becomes that Bitcoin is never overvalued.
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