Just as crypto shows signs of healing.

The World:

🇺🇸: U.S. may impose 500% tariffs on countries buying oil from Russia, including India, China, and Brazil

🇨🇳: CHINA ISSUES A STARK WARNING TO THE UNITED STATES “If you want war, war will come. If you seek to destroy China, you will be destroyed.”

🇷🇺: Russia has deployed a submarine and naval assets to escort the oil tanker Marinera (formerly Bella 1) across the North Atlantic

🇩🇰: Denmark warns it will defend its territory if the US targets Greenland. Tensions in the Arctic are heating up.

War, trade war, oil, geo political tensions all at once.

Markets Right Now 🌚

Retail is still missing

Bitcoin’s 30 day retail demand is negative, meaning small investors haven’t jumped in yet. No FOMO, no crowd chasing the move.

From  long term perspective, this is usually the phase where whales and smart money builds position. Retail comes later, when prices already feel safe.

If you DCA $100 per week into Bitcoin starting now, you can stack 0.1 BTC in ~2.5 years.

If you wait 2 years and then start the same DCA, it will take 5 years to reach 0.1 BTC (~2032)

If you wait 5 years, the same goal will take 12 years (~2043)

Same strategy, same amount.
Only difference is when you start.

Bitcoin is not an investment, it's a store of value. The sooner this is realized, the clearer it becomes that Bitcoin is never overvalued.

CZ just posted "Super Cycle incoming." Do you trust him?

Gm

Quick update on Bitcoin's move.

Right now, Bitcoin isn’t moving because of strong buying or selling. Price is being pushed around mainly due to leverage liquidations.

Both longs and shorts are getting wiped out. That’s why we are seeing sharp wicks up and down.

Funding rates are flipping quickly between positive and negative. This shows confusion, the phase is less about trend and more about clearing leveraged positions.

At the current liquidation levels, longs are clearly more crowded than shorts.

long liquidation heat concentrated at $85k - $89k, creating a heavy downside magnet.

Funding is still positive, but the problem is there isn’t much upside liquidity left. That usually means the market looks for an easier move.

If this continues, a flush to clear over exposed longs wouldn’t be surprising.

BOJ interest rate to be announced on 23 January and there is 97% chance of no rate hike.

Markets are already pricing in status quo. Liquidity expectations stay unchanged, yen pressure remains and risk assets won’t get a shock unless BOJ surprises with a 'Hawkish tone.'

Bloomberg report says the 10/10 collapse event shook confidence so badly that most investors either exited the market completely or limited themselves to just Bitcoin and Ethereum.

That capital never really rotated back into alts.

This explains why even after strong development and fundamentals, most altcoins are still sitting near their lows. Clearly not a tech problem, it’s a capital trust problem.

Also, the altcoin rally window has shrunk to just 20 days.

Solana trolled Starknet for having just 8 daily active users.

Still, Starknet somehow managed to hit 'All Time Highs' in TVL and app revenue.

The 8 Starknet users be like:

Since the October drop, Ethereum has failed to reclaim and stabilize above the 200 EMA, a critical resistance line capping upside momentum.

This is now ETH’s third attempt to reclaim it.

The altseason breakout season only starts when Ethereum sustain above this zone and takes the lead. Failure here could stretch the consolidation or trigger more downside.

A new CME gap has formed around $3,325, and it is still unfilled.

At the same time, the previous CME gap near $3,000 remains open as well

Unfilled CME gaps often act as price magnets. As long as these gaps stay open, they remain important downside levels to watch

Trade war tensions are back.

The US just announced a 10% tariff on Europe starting Feb 1 over the Greenland standoff, triggering sell off in Crypto and Stocks while Gold pushed to a new All Time High ~$4,700.

If no deal is reached, tariffs will escalate to 25%, which could trigger an even bigger sell off.

Uncertainty is back, Watch out for the headlines.The market’s next move will come from right here.