As everyone is anxiously waiting for the Fed easing the monetary policy, this chart wonderfully establishes that rate cuts have not been historically a good sign for markets. Economy does not follow the Fed; rather Fed follows the economy.

1.5 M employees at Amazon produced more than 300M people in 70 countries

Everyone focuses on the horrendous soft landing prediction here

But also noteworthy: the fed was worried about inflation up late 2007 and was unable to see the massive deflation in front of their eyes

Get some in case it catches on

Inflation rate at 6.4% for the last 12 months and is consistently decreasing.
Last 6 months (annualized) only 2% & last 3 months (annualized) only 1.6%.
Inflation fight is long over. Now the Fed must focus on avoiding a recession which seems increasingly difficult.

Argentina inflation reached 98.8%

The natural outcome of central banking at the hand of corrupt governments

The case for CBDCs

Lebanese protesters, furious at not having access to their own savings, set fire to banks in Beirut. The country's financial crisis has slashed the value of the Lebanese pound by more than 98% since 2019

While the Fed is focused on the lagged and smoothed labor reports that indicate a tight labor market, actual companies are announcing mass layoffs and as early as Q4 2022 have indicated no labor shortage

Goldman Sachs analysts of Q4 earnings calls: “References to labor shortages in Russell 3000 earnings calls fell to the lowest level of the pandemic recovery, at 4.9% of Q4 earnings calls compared to 16.5% for 3Q21.
Our more detailed review of Dow Jones and large-cap consumer company trannoscripts was even more encouraging: Two thirds of references pointed to increased labor availability, and no companies cited labor shortages worsening.”

Durable goods orders crashed in Jan by the highest amount since COVID: -4.5%

But this is after +5% in Dec. Overall down the last 3 months

Transportation -13% incl. aircrafts -56%

Mixed signals have baffled analysts but note recessions typically come after a mixed-signal period

Shipping containers pile up and trucks form a kilometer-long queue in major Chinese port as overseas orders dwindle

‏The stock market has never seen a bear market bottom before the unemployment rate begins to rise