The fact that big businesses, who have the richest data about the real economy, overestimated demand does not bode well for growth at all. We are looking at a major surprise in the coming months.

https://twitter.com/sina_bitguide/status/1534197010521284608

ECB hiking into a recession

The ECB plans to halt QE and raise rates by 25 bps in July, just as they forecast more rapid economic contraction.

The ECB cannot dig more oil out of the ground or increase factory outputs to deal with supply chain disruptions. Thus, resorting to demand destruction when the economy needs investments to increase production.

One of implications of political money is that even when there is no economic rationale for gaming the money, political centers are forced to do something.

This move will accelerate credit contraction and increase financial constraints on the economic growth: read policy error, recession, and lay offs.

No recession this year guys

https://twitter.com/sina_bitguide/status/1535080383561146368

Inflation surprises again with another record

1.0% MoM > Exp. 0.7%
8.6% YoY > Exp. 8.3%


In the parallel universe, the Fed is being restructured and centralized economic planning is tossed away.

Confirming the strong economic pivot, Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to 50.2, a record low as far as the data goes back

The index has been a great predictor of recessions

DCA Reminder

This article is now more important than ever. DCA saves you when all models are broken. It’s the cure for volatile markets and high time-preference price guessing behavior. No one knows where the bottom is but #DCA ensures you will pick it up.

https://www.bitguide.io/post/dollar-cost-averaging-a-time-less-bitcoin-investment-strategy

@Bitguide

Three hours ago Binance paused all Bitcoin withdrawals due to “stuck transactions” which “should be fixed in ~30 minutes”. Go figure…

@Bitguide

Yield curve (2-10s) nearly inverted again. What else do we need to convince the Fed? a sharp CPI down turn will do

Coinbase cutting 18% of jobs or 1100 employees.

The layoff tide has hit criptoe shores hard

https://blog.coinbase.com/a-message-from-coinbase-ceo-and-cofounder-brian-armstrong-578d76eedb12