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ECB hiking into a recession

The ECB plans to halt QE and raise rates by 25 bps in July, just as they forecast more rapid economic contraction.

The ECB cannot dig more oil out of the ground or increase factory outputs to deal with supply chain disruptions. Thus, resorting to demand destruction when the economy needs investments to increase production.

One of implications of political money is that even when there is no economic rationale for gaming the money, political centers are forced to do something.

This move will accelerate credit contraction and increase financial constraints on the economic growth: read policy error, recession, and lay offs.
Inflation surprises again with another record

1.0% MoM > Exp. 0.7%
8.6% YoY > Exp. 8.3%


In the parallel universe, the Fed is being restructured and centralized economic planning is tossed away.
Bitguide
Inflation surprises again with another record 1.0% MoM > Exp. 0.7% 8.6% YoY > Exp. 8.3% In the parallel universe, the Fed is being restructured and centralized economic planning is tossed away.
Confirming the strong economic pivot, Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to 50.2, a record low as far as the data goes back

The index has been a great predictor of recessions
How it started vs how it ended
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DCA Reminder

This article is now more important than ever. DCA saves you when all models are broken. It’s the cure for volatile markets and high time-preference price guessing behavior. No one knows where the bottom is but #DCA ensures you will pick it up.

https://www.bitguide.io/post/dollar-cost-averaging-a-time-less-bitcoin-investment-strategy

@Bitguide
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Three hours ago Binance paused all Bitcoin withdrawals due to “stuck transactions” which “should be fixed in ~30 minutes”. Go figure…

@Bitguide
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Yield curve (2-10s) nearly inverted again. What else do we need to convince the Fed? a sharp CPI down turn will do
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Will MicroStrategy get liquidated?

MicroStrategy has 115,109 bitcoin worth ~$2.5B
They have borrowed only $205M against it (and need to maintain a collaterial of $410M)
That is an 8% LTV
If bitcoin prices falls to $3,562, they will be called and then they can tap into other company assets as collateral
They have been very prudent with leverage

The speculation around Microstrategy margin calls are misinformed noise and reflect the highly emotional state of the market right now

@Bitguide
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Monthly mortgage payments in the panic zone

Noteworthy:
- what is the human cost of the FED’s rate manipulation?
- what is the economic fall out of such major fundamental shocks?

@Bitguide
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Home builders slamming the emergency break. Multi family starts down 26.8%.

Nice economic shock, Powell. Maximum employment and stable prices secured.

@Bitguide
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