🇺🇸 🇲🇽 President Biden's road to a dramatic executive order to stem illegal border crossings — now expected within weeks — has dragged out for months as he prepares for legal challenges, political backlash and enforcement shortages.
🔶️ Trump's executive actions on immigration faced constant litigation. When he leveraged 212(f) to block illegal border crossings, a federal judge ultimately blocked the Department of Homeland Security from enforcing it.
https://www.axios.com/2024/04/15/behind-biden-delay-border-executive-order
🔶️ Trump's executive actions on immigration faced constant litigation. When he leveraged 212(f) to block illegal border crossings, a federal judge ultimately blocked the Department of Homeland Security from enforcing it.
https://www.axios.com/2024/04/15/behind-biden-delay-border-executive-order
🇺🇸 🇷🇺 "Biden is walking back sanctions on Russia in order to lower energy costs. This tells you A) the war is almost over and B) his polls are in the gutter."
🔶️ Treasury department authorizes transactions with Russian banks for payments “for energy,” including for oil, gas and timber.
📎 Carolina Lion
🔶️ Treasury department authorizes transactions with Russian banks for payments “for energy,” including for oil, gas and timber.
📎 Carolina Lion
🗳 🇺🇸 📊 Biden CNN POLL:
— President Trump leads Biden 49% to 43% in a two-way race.
— President Trump leads Biden 42% to 33% including third party candidates.
— 55% say the Trump presidency was a success. 39% say the Biden presidency is a success.
📎 RNC Research
📉 Biden Gallup Poll
🔶️ According to a new Gallup poll, Biden is "in a weaker position than any prior incumbent" including President George H.W. Bush.
🔶️ Biden's 13th quarter approval rating is the lowest in modern history at 38.7%.
🔶️ For comparison, at this same point in their presidencies, Trump was at 46.8%, Obama was at 45.9% and H.W. Bush was at 41.8%.
📎 Collin Rugg
— President Trump leads Biden 49% to 43% in a two-way race.
— President Trump leads Biden 42% to 33% including third party candidates.
— 55% say the Trump presidency was a success. 39% say the Biden presidency is a success.
📎 RNC Research
🔶️ According to a new Gallup poll, Biden is "in a weaker position than any prior incumbent" including President George H.W. Bush.
🔶️ Biden's 13th quarter approval rating is the lowest in modern history at 38.7%.
🔶️ For comparison, at this same point in their presidencies, Trump was at 46.8%, Obama was at 45.9% and H.W. Bush was at 41.8%.
📎 Collin Rugg
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⬛️ The West may have hoped to end the war on terrorism. But the terrorists are still at war.
🔶️ These days the West has largely turned away from the long “war on terror”, having expended much blood and treasure to destroy the main jihadist groups. But extremists are on the march again. They have re-emerged in havens old and new, and are thriving in cyberspace. Furthermore, Israel’s war in Gaza is all but certain to radicalise a new generation.
🔶️ In the Sahel, meanwhile, coups have forced French forces to leave Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. un peacekeepers have also withdrawn from Mali; American troops are likely to leave Niger and perhaps Chad, too. In their place Russia’s Wagner mercenary outfit is being hired to protect the putschists. Whether they can beat back jihadists is doubtful. A recent un report warns that regional branches of al-Qaeda are gaining ground, threatening west African coastal states, and may establish a “terrorist sanctuary”. Spooks fret that, in both regions, jihadists could turn to attacking the West. A similar worry applies to al-Qaeda’s powerful ally in Somalia, the Shabaab, and its branch in Yemen, aqap, which have histories of cross-border terrorism.
🔶️ As jihadists regroup, however, the more organised sort of attack may return to the fore. In Europe France is most vulnerable, in part because of the clash between French state secularism and Muslim public religiosity. Britain and, increasingly, Germany, may be next on the hit-list. They have often been targets in the past (see chart 2). Sweden and Denmark have drawn ire because of their Koran-burning protests. Russia is prominent, adds Mr Nesser, given its intervention in Syria in 2015 and its alliance with Iran.
https://www.economist.com/international/2024/04/29/beware-global-jihadists-are-back-on-the-march
https://archive.ph/T0F2g
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The Economist
Beware, global jihadists are back on the march
They are using the war in Gaza to radicalise a new generation
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🇹🇩 🏴☠️ Noticed hundreds of new Toyotas entering N’Djamena these last 2 days.
📎 Mahamat M Adam Bechir
📎 Mahamat M Adam Bechir
🇨🇲 🇹🇩 🇸🇩 Cameroonian authorities are also looking into the shipment of 600 Toyotas through Chad destined for the RSF in Sudan. By my count, RSF is confirmed shipping in weapons with UAE help via Chad Kenya CAR Uganda Libya with Ethiopia suspected.
📎 Cameron Hudson
📎 Cameron Hudson
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
🇨🇲 🇹🇩 🇸🇩 Cameroonian authorities are also looking into the shipment of 600 Toyotas through Chad destined for the RSF in Sudan. By my count, RSF is confirmed shipping in weapons with UAE help via Chad Kenya CAR Uganda Libya with Ethiopia suspected. 📎 Cameron…
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☕️ 🇺🇸 💸 Starbucks has fallen...
1. Company wide same store sales fell 4% and traffic fell 6% this quarter
2. In China, same store sales plunged 11% with an 8% decline in the average order
3. International same store sales FELL 6% while a 1.4% GAIN was expected
4. Management lowered revenue growth guidance from 7% to low-single digits
5. "Most loyal customers are looking for discounts"
What happened to Starbucks?
Even the company's most loyal customers are looking for discounts.
Consumers are cutting back on spending and expensive coffee is a luxury.
All while international sales have completely fallen off a cliff.
📎 Kobeissi Letter
1. Company wide same store sales fell 4% and traffic fell 6% this quarter
2. In China, same store sales plunged 11% with an 8% decline in the average order
3. International same store sales FELL 6% while a 1.4% GAIN was expected
4. Management lowered revenue growth guidance from 7% to low-single digits
5. "Most loyal customers are looking for discounts"
What happened to Starbucks?
Even the company's most loyal customers are looking for discounts.
Consumers are cutting back on spending and expensive coffee is a luxury.
All while international sales have completely fallen off a cliff.
📎 Kobeissi Letter
Forwarded from Dissident Thoughts (Conks)
Big Changes
President Trump has long made clear his preference for low interest rates, and reports indicate he may further his trade wars by also devaluing the dollar.
The most straightforward implementation of these two goals would be to set ceilings on short and longer dated rates below market levels – in effect a return to 1940s style yield curve control. This would also completely resolve the many stability concerns of the Treasury market.
Lower rates and a weaker dollar would be a significant positive for all assets, from equities to fixed income. This has also historically led to higher inflation, stagnant economic growth, and the eventual deployment of deflationary policies by popular demand. But that is process that plays out over a period of years. At the moment it looks like there is roughly 50% chance of significant upside risk in coming year.
In any case, there is clear change in the political discourse that is biased towards inflationary policies.
4/4
President Trump has long made clear his preference for low interest rates, and reports indicate he may further his trade wars by also devaluing the dollar.
The most straightforward implementation of these two goals would be to set ceilings on short and longer dated rates below market levels – in effect a return to 1940s style yield curve control. This would also completely resolve the many stability concerns of the Treasury market.
Lower rates and a weaker dollar would be a significant positive for all assets, from equities to fixed income. This has also historically led to higher inflation, stagnant economic growth, and the eventual deployment of deflationary policies by popular demand. But that is process that plays out over a period of years. At the moment it looks like there is roughly 50% chance of significant upside risk in coming year.
In any case, there is clear change in the political discourse that is biased towards inflationary policies.
4/4
Forwarded from Dissident Thoughts (Conks)
Interest Rate Policy
The Fed has held control over interest rate policy in recent decades, but that was not always the case.
In the 1940s interest rates were set in consultation with the Treasury, who insisted that the Fed peg rates at low levels. The Fed obliged and operated a yield curve control framework where short term interest rates were set at a bit below 0.5% and longer-term interest rates were subject to a ceiling of 2.5%. While this began under the emergency of World War II, it continued after the war until the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord. At that time there was a heated public disagreement where the Fed sought to raise rates due to concerns of inflation and Treasury preferred the status quo. The disagreement was settled by the Accord, which granted the Fed independence in rate setting that we still see today.
A rethink of the Treasury-Fed Accord would not be unreasonable as interest rate policy is increasingly becoming fiscal policy (the reality is one of fiscal dominance).
Federal interest expenses are expected to exceed a record $1t in the coming year due to both the growing stock of debt and higher interest rates. The growing fiscal impact of interest rates warrants greater accountability from the elected government. Note that this was the same concern raised at the time of the Accord, when the stock of public debt had exploded higher due to World War II.
President Truman sided with Treasury and insisted the Fed maintain low interest rates in part due to the impact rising interest expenditures had on the fiscal deficit. Similar to some MMT proponents today, he believed higher rates in that context was inflationary.
2/4
The Fed has held control over interest rate policy in recent decades, but that was not always the case.
In the 1940s interest rates were set in consultation with the Treasury, who insisted that the Fed peg rates at low levels. The Fed obliged and operated a yield curve control framework where short term interest rates were set at a bit below 0.5% and longer-term interest rates were subject to a ceiling of 2.5%. While this began under the emergency of World War II, it continued after the war until the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord. At that time there was a heated public disagreement where the Fed sought to raise rates due to concerns of inflation and Treasury preferred the status quo. The disagreement was settled by the Accord, which granted the Fed independence in rate setting that we still see today.
A rethink of the Treasury-Fed Accord would not be unreasonable as interest rate policy is increasingly becoming fiscal policy (the reality is one of fiscal dominance).
Federal interest expenses are expected to exceed a record $1t in the coming year due to both the growing stock of debt and higher interest rates. The growing fiscal impact of interest rates warrants greater accountability from the elected government. Note that this was the same concern raised at the time of the Accord, when the stock of public debt had exploded higher due to World War II.
President Truman sided with Treasury and insisted the Fed maintain low interest rates in part due to the impact rising interest expenditures had on the fiscal deficit. Similar to some MMT proponents today, he believed higher rates in that context was inflationary.
2/4
🇨🇳 🇺🇸 🌍China pursuing a secure geoeconomic sphere:
🔶️ "China’s pursuit of an alternative trade system is primarily motivated by geopolitical factors, notably in response to U.S. initiatives aimed at excluding China from global supply chains."
🔶️ "Additionally, the U.S.-China trade war and efforts to “decouple” from China, along with initiatives to address excess capacity and unfair trade practices, underscore the necessity for China to construct alternative avenues. In other words, China needs to find more stable source of supply of raw materials and explore new markets for its manufacturing products."
🔶️ "Traditionally, the Global South primarily exported raw materials to the West, and then used the foreign exchanges they earn this way to import manufactured goods from the West. However, the BRI aims to shift this dynamic, thus enabling Chinese firms to obtain raw materials, tap into new markets, and absorb surplus manufacturing capacities."
🔶️ "This envisioned a hub-and-spoke system with China as its center hub and the Global South countries as spokes leading to China."
🔶️ "A China-led alternative trade system would significantly realign supply chains away from the West, centralizing them around China. This shift would make China the primary destination of exports and source of imports for the Global South."
🔶️ "Moreover, it could erode U.S. dominance, enticing more countries to pivot toward China. This is confirmed by recently released studies by the Singapore-based Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, which shows Southeast Asian countries favoring China over the U.S. as the partner for the first time."
🔶️ "Additionally, such a system could signal a transition from the Washington Consensus to the Beijing Consensus, prioritizing state-led economic models over laissez-faire approaches. In the long run, this could mark the end to the Western model based on free trade and free markets, and in turn reshapes the global geopolitical landscape."
https://thediplomat.com/2024/04/chinas-alternative-global-trade-system
🔶️ "China’s pursuit of an alternative trade system is primarily motivated by geopolitical factors, notably in response to U.S. initiatives aimed at excluding China from global supply chains."
🔶️ "Additionally, the U.S.-China trade war and efforts to “decouple” from China, along with initiatives to address excess capacity and unfair trade practices, underscore the necessity for China to construct alternative avenues. In other words, China needs to find more stable source of supply of raw materials and explore new markets for its manufacturing products."
🔶️ "Traditionally, the Global South primarily exported raw materials to the West, and then used the foreign exchanges they earn this way to import manufactured goods from the West. However, the BRI aims to shift this dynamic, thus enabling Chinese firms to obtain raw materials, tap into new markets, and absorb surplus manufacturing capacities."
🔶️ "This envisioned a hub-and-spoke system with China as its center hub and the Global South countries as spokes leading to China."
🔶️ "A China-led alternative trade system would significantly realign supply chains away from the West, centralizing them around China. This shift would make China the primary destination of exports and source of imports for the Global South."
🔶️ "Moreover, it could erode U.S. dominance, enticing more countries to pivot toward China. This is confirmed by recently released studies by the Singapore-based Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, which shows Southeast Asian countries favoring China over the U.S. as the partner for the first time."
🔶️ "Additionally, such a system could signal a transition from the Washington Consensus to the Beijing Consensus, prioritizing state-led economic models over laissez-faire approaches. In the long run, this could mark the end to the Western model based on free trade and free markets, and in turn reshapes the global geopolitical landscape."
https://thediplomat.com/2024/04/chinas-alternative-global-trade-system
Thediplomat
China’s Alternative Global Trade System
Insights from Henry Gao.
Forwarded from Nicholas J. Fuentes
📢 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 Netanyahu tells Blinken he will not agree to end war on Hamas as part of hostage deal
🔶️ Netanyahu told Blinken during their meeting today he won't accept a deal that will include ending the war. He said if Hamas doesn't drop this demand there will be no deal and Israel will invade Rafah, per Israeli and U.S. officials
🔶️ Blinken told Netanyahu the U.S. still opposes an IDF operation in Rafah without a credible plan for protecting civilians and thinks there are a better options to deal with the Hamas battalions in the city other than a full scale military operation, per U.S. official
📢 “The Rafah operation does not depend on anything,” said the PMO. “Prime Minister Netanyahu made this clear to Secretary Blinken.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-israel-blinken-blames-hamas-for-hostage-deal-holdup-gaza-humanitarian-crisis/
🔶️ Netanyahu told Blinken during their meeting today he won't accept a deal that will include ending the war. He said if Hamas doesn't drop this demand there will be no deal and Israel will invade Rafah, per Israeli and U.S. officials
🔶️ Blinken told Netanyahu the U.S. still opposes an IDF operation in Rafah without a credible plan for protecting civilians and thinks there are a better options to deal with the Hamas battalions in the city other than a full scale military operation, per U.S. official
📢 “The Rafah operation does not depend on anything,” said the PMO. “Prime Minister Netanyahu made this clear to Secretary Blinken.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-israel-blinken-blames-hamas-for-hostage-deal-holdup-gaza-humanitarian-crisis/
The Times of Israel
Netanyahu tells Blinken he will not agree to end war on Hamas as part of hostage deal
PM tells visiting US secretary that potential truce won't forestall Rafah operation; Blinken reiterates US opposition to incursion, says Hamas 'standing in the way of a ceasefire'