⬛️ The West may have hoped to end the war on terrorism. But the terrorists are still at war.
🔶️ These days the West has largely turned away from the long “war on terror”, having expended much blood and treasure to destroy the main jihadist groups. But extremists are on the march again. They have re-emerged in havens old and new, and are thriving in cyberspace. Furthermore, Israel’s war in Gaza is all but certain to radicalise a new generation.
🔶️ In the Sahel, meanwhile, coups have forced French forces to leave Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. un peacekeepers have also withdrawn from Mali; American troops are likely to leave Niger and perhaps Chad, too. In their place Russia’s Wagner mercenary outfit is being hired to protect the putschists. Whether they can beat back jihadists is doubtful. A recent un report warns that regional branches of al-Qaeda are gaining ground, threatening west African coastal states, and may establish a “terrorist sanctuary”. Spooks fret that, in both regions, jihadists could turn to attacking the West. A similar worry applies to al-Qaeda’s powerful ally in Somalia, the Shabaab, and its branch in Yemen, aqap, which have histories of cross-border terrorism.
🔶️ As jihadists regroup, however, the more organised sort of attack may return to the fore. In Europe France is most vulnerable, in part because of the clash between French state secularism and Muslim public religiosity. Britain and, increasingly, Germany, may be next on the hit-list. They have often been targets in the past (see chart 2). Sweden and Denmark have drawn ire because of their Koran-burning protests. Russia is prominent, adds Mr Nesser, given its intervention in Syria in 2015 and its alliance with Iran.
https://www.economist.com/international/2024/04/29/beware-global-jihadists-are-back-on-the-march
https://archive.ph/T0F2g
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The Economist
Beware, global jihadists are back on the march
They are using the war in Gaza to radicalise a new generation
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🇹🇩 🏴☠️ Noticed hundreds of new Toyotas entering N’Djamena these last 2 days.
📎 Mahamat M Adam Bechir
📎 Mahamat M Adam Bechir
🇨🇲 🇹🇩 🇸🇩 Cameroonian authorities are also looking into the shipment of 600 Toyotas through Chad destined for the RSF in Sudan. By my count, RSF is confirmed shipping in weapons with UAE help via Chad Kenya CAR Uganda Libya with Ethiopia suspected.
📎 Cameron Hudson
📎 Cameron Hudson
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
🇨🇲 🇹🇩 🇸🇩 Cameroonian authorities are also looking into the shipment of 600 Toyotas through Chad destined for the RSF in Sudan. By my count, RSF is confirmed shipping in weapons with UAE help via Chad Kenya CAR Uganda Libya with Ethiopia suspected. 📎 Cameron…
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☕️ 🇺🇸 💸 Starbucks has fallen...
1. Company wide same store sales fell 4% and traffic fell 6% this quarter
2. In China, same store sales plunged 11% with an 8% decline in the average order
3. International same store sales FELL 6% while a 1.4% GAIN was expected
4. Management lowered revenue growth guidance from 7% to low-single digits
5. "Most loyal customers are looking for discounts"
What happened to Starbucks?
Even the company's most loyal customers are looking for discounts.
Consumers are cutting back on spending and expensive coffee is a luxury.
All while international sales have completely fallen off a cliff.
📎 Kobeissi Letter
1. Company wide same store sales fell 4% and traffic fell 6% this quarter
2. In China, same store sales plunged 11% with an 8% decline in the average order
3. International same store sales FELL 6% while a 1.4% GAIN was expected
4. Management lowered revenue growth guidance from 7% to low-single digits
5. "Most loyal customers are looking for discounts"
What happened to Starbucks?
Even the company's most loyal customers are looking for discounts.
Consumers are cutting back on spending and expensive coffee is a luxury.
All while international sales have completely fallen off a cliff.
📎 Kobeissi Letter
Forwarded from Dissident Thoughts (Conks)
Big Changes
President Trump has long made clear his preference for low interest rates, and reports indicate he may further his trade wars by also devaluing the dollar.
The most straightforward implementation of these two goals would be to set ceilings on short and longer dated rates below market levels – in effect a return to 1940s style yield curve control. This would also completely resolve the many stability concerns of the Treasury market.
Lower rates and a weaker dollar would be a significant positive for all assets, from equities to fixed income. This has also historically led to higher inflation, stagnant economic growth, and the eventual deployment of deflationary policies by popular demand. But that is process that plays out over a period of years. At the moment it looks like there is roughly 50% chance of significant upside risk in coming year.
In any case, there is clear change in the political discourse that is biased towards inflationary policies.
4/4
President Trump has long made clear his preference for low interest rates, and reports indicate he may further his trade wars by also devaluing the dollar.
The most straightforward implementation of these two goals would be to set ceilings on short and longer dated rates below market levels – in effect a return to 1940s style yield curve control. This would also completely resolve the many stability concerns of the Treasury market.
Lower rates and a weaker dollar would be a significant positive for all assets, from equities to fixed income. This has also historically led to higher inflation, stagnant economic growth, and the eventual deployment of deflationary policies by popular demand. But that is process that plays out over a period of years. At the moment it looks like there is roughly 50% chance of significant upside risk in coming year.
In any case, there is clear change in the political discourse that is biased towards inflationary policies.
4/4
Forwarded from Dissident Thoughts (Conks)
Interest Rate Policy
The Fed has held control over interest rate policy in recent decades, but that was not always the case.
In the 1940s interest rates were set in consultation with the Treasury, who insisted that the Fed peg rates at low levels. The Fed obliged and operated a yield curve control framework where short term interest rates were set at a bit below 0.5% and longer-term interest rates were subject to a ceiling of 2.5%. While this began under the emergency of World War II, it continued after the war until the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord. At that time there was a heated public disagreement where the Fed sought to raise rates due to concerns of inflation and Treasury preferred the status quo. The disagreement was settled by the Accord, which granted the Fed independence in rate setting that we still see today.
A rethink of the Treasury-Fed Accord would not be unreasonable as interest rate policy is increasingly becoming fiscal policy (the reality is one of fiscal dominance).
Federal interest expenses are expected to exceed a record $1t in the coming year due to both the growing stock of debt and higher interest rates. The growing fiscal impact of interest rates warrants greater accountability from the elected government. Note that this was the same concern raised at the time of the Accord, when the stock of public debt had exploded higher due to World War II.
President Truman sided with Treasury and insisted the Fed maintain low interest rates in part due to the impact rising interest expenditures had on the fiscal deficit. Similar to some MMT proponents today, he believed higher rates in that context was inflationary.
2/4
The Fed has held control over interest rate policy in recent decades, but that was not always the case.
In the 1940s interest rates were set in consultation with the Treasury, who insisted that the Fed peg rates at low levels. The Fed obliged and operated a yield curve control framework where short term interest rates were set at a bit below 0.5% and longer-term interest rates were subject to a ceiling of 2.5%. While this began under the emergency of World War II, it continued after the war until the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord. At that time there was a heated public disagreement where the Fed sought to raise rates due to concerns of inflation and Treasury preferred the status quo. The disagreement was settled by the Accord, which granted the Fed independence in rate setting that we still see today.
A rethink of the Treasury-Fed Accord would not be unreasonable as interest rate policy is increasingly becoming fiscal policy (the reality is one of fiscal dominance).
Federal interest expenses are expected to exceed a record $1t in the coming year due to both the growing stock of debt and higher interest rates. The growing fiscal impact of interest rates warrants greater accountability from the elected government. Note that this was the same concern raised at the time of the Accord, when the stock of public debt had exploded higher due to World War II.
President Truman sided with Treasury and insisted the Fed maintain low interest rates in part due to the impact rising interest expenditures had on the fiscal deficit. Similar to some MMT proponents today, he believed higher rates in that context was inflationary.
2/4
🇨🇳 🇺🇸 🌍China pursuing a secure geoeconomic sphere:
🔶️ "China’s pursuit of an alternative trade system is primarily motivated by geopolitical factors, notably in response to U.S. initiatives aimed at excluding China from global supply chains."
🔶️ "Additionally, the U.S.-China trade war and efforts to “decouple” from China, along with initiatives to address excess capacity and unfair trade practices, underscore the necessity for China to construct alternative avenues. In other words, China needs to find more stable source of supply of raw materials and explore new markets for its manufacturing products."
🔶️ "Traditionally, the Global South primarily exported raw materials to the West, and then used the foreign exchanges they earn this way to import manufactured goods from the West. However, the BRI aims to shift this dynamic, thus enabling Chinese firms to obtain raw materials, tap into new markets, and absorb surplus manufacturing capacities."
🔶️ "This envisioned a hub-and-spoke system with China as its center hub and the Global South countries as spokes leading to China."
🔶️ "A China-led alternative trade system would significantly realign supply chains away from the West, centralizing them around China. This shift would make China the primary destination of exports and source of imports for the Global South."
🔶️ "Moreover, it could erode U.S. dominance, enticing more countries to pivot toward China. This is confirmed by recently released studies by the Singapore-based Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, which shows Southeast Asian countries favoring China over the U.S. as the partner for the first time."
🔶️ "Additionally, such a system could signal a transition from the Washington Consensus to the Beijing Consensus, prioritizing state-led economic models over laissez-faire approaches. In the long run, this could mark the end to the Western model based on free trade and free markets, and in turn reshapes the global geopolitical landscape."
https://thediplomat.com/2024/04/chinas-alternative-global-trade-system
🔶️ "China’s pursuit of an alternative trade system is primarily motivated by geopolitical factors, notably in response to U.S. initiatives aimed at excluding China from global supply chains."
🔶️ "Additionally, the U.S.-China trade war and efforts to “decouple” from China, along with initiatives to address excess capacity and unfair trade practices, underscore the necessity for China to construct alternative avenues. In other words, China needs to find more stable source of supply of raw materials and explore new markets for its manufacturing products."
🔶️ "Traditionally, the Global South primarily exported raw materials to the West, and then used the foreign exchanges they earn this way to import manufactured goods from the West. However, the BRI aims to shift this dynamic, thus enabling Chinese firms to obtain raw materials, tap into new markets, and absorb surplus manufacturing capacities."
🔶️ "This envisioned a hub-and-spoke system with China as its center hub and the Global South countries as spokes leading to China."
🔶️ "A China-led alternative trade system would significantly realign supply chains away from the West, centralizing them around China. This shift would make China the primary destination of exports and source of imports for the Global South."
🔶️ "Moreover, it could erode U.S. dominance, enticing more countries to pivot toward China. This is confirmed by recently released studies by the Singapore-based Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, which shows Southeast Asian countries favoring China over the U.S. as the partner for the first time."
🔶️ "Additionally, such a system could signal a transition from the Washington Consensus to the Beijing Consensus, prioritizing state-led economic models over laissez-faire approaches. In the long run, this could mark the end to the Western model based on free trade and free markets, and in turn reshapes the global geopolitical landscape."
https://thediplomat.com/2024/04/chinas-alternative-global-trade-system
Thediplomat
China’s Alternative Global Trade System
Insights from Henry Gao.
Forwarded from Nicholas J. Fuentes
📢 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 Netanyahu tells Blinken he will not agree to end war on Hamas as part of hostage deal
🔶️ Netanyahu told Blinken during their meeting today he won't accept a deal that will include ending the war. He said if Hamas doesn't drop this demand there will be no deal and Israel will invade Rafah, per Israeli and U.S. officials
🔶️ Blinken told Netanyahu the U.S. still opposes an IDF operation in Rafah without a credible plan for protecting civilians and thinks there are a better options to deal with the Hamas battalions in the city other than a full scale military operation, per U.S. official
📢 “The Rafah operation does not depend on anything,” said the PMO. “Prime Minister Netanyahu made this clear to Secretary Blinken.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-israel-blinken-blames-hamas-for-hostage-deal-holdup-gaza-humanitarian-crisis/
🔶️ Netanyahu told Blinken during their meeting today he won't accept a deal that will include ending the war. He said if Hamas doesn't drop this demand there will be no deal and Israel will invade Rafah, per Israeli and U.S. officials
🔶️ Blinken told Netanyahu the U.S. still opposes an IDF operation in Rafah without a credible plan for protecting civilians and thinks there are a better options to deal with the Hamas battalions in the city other than a full scale military operation, per U.S. official
📢 “The Rafah operation does not depend on anything,” said the PMO. “Prime Minister Netanyahu made this clear to Secretary Blinken.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-israel-blinken-blames-hamas-for-hostage-deal-holdup-gaza-humanitarian-crisis/
The Times of Israel
Netanyahu tells Blinken he will not agree to end war on Hamas as part of hostage deal
PM tells visiting US secretary that potential truce won't forestall Rafah operation; Blinken reiterates US opposition to incursion, says Hamas 'standing in the way of a ceasefire'
🏹 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 Israel retires Patriot air defenses as native air defense systems step up
🔶️ After 40 years in use to defend the nation, the Israel Defense Forces will soon say goodbye to their American-made Patriot air defense systems, the IDF announced Tuesday.
🔶️ The move comes as Israel’s indigenous defenses, notably the Iron Dome, Arrow and David’s Sling systems, increasingly take on the role of home defender. It also comes days after Israel’s systems and aircraft, along with help from American, French, British and Jordanian militaries, managed to stymie an Iranian broadside of drones and missiles.
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/05/israel-retires-patriot-air-defenses-as-native-air-defense-systems-step-up/
🔶️ After 40 years in use to defend the nation, the Israel Defense Forces will soon say goodbye to their American-made Patriot air defense systems, the IDF announced Tuesday.
🔶️ The move comes as Israel’s indigenous defenses, notably the Iron Dome, Arrow and David’s Sling systems, increasingly take on the role of home defender. It also comes days after Israel’s systems and aircraft, along with help from American, French, British and Jordanian militaries, managed to stymie an Iranian broadside of drones and missiles.
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/05/israel-retires-patriot-air-defenses-as-native-air-defense-systems-step-up/
Breaking Defense
Israel retires Patriot air defenses as native air defense systems step up
The decision comes amid Ukrainian clamoring for the system, though analysts doubted Israeli batteries would make their way north due to Russian sensitivities.
🇺🇸 😕 🇮🇱 Struck by the stonefaced looks and even scowls of ALL the US participants.
🔶️ The expanded meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, at the Prime Minister's Office in Jerusalem, has concluded.
📎 Shalom Lipner
🔶️ The expanded meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, at the Prime Minister's Office in Jerusalem, has concluded.
📎 Shalom Lipner
🇮🇱 ❌️ 🇵🇸 Israeli warned the Biden administration that if the International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants against Israeli leaders, it will take retaliatory steps against the Palestinian Authority that could lead to its collapse.
🔶️ "One possible action could be to freeze the transfer of tax revenues Israel collects for the Palestinian Authority. Without these funds, the Palestinian Authority would be bankrupt."
🔶️ Intentionally collapsing the PA would mean that Israel would need to take responsibility for everything from basic services to policing of the entirety of the West Bank and would officially close down the chance - albeit slim - of the PA returning to Gaza
https://www.axios.com/2024/05/01/us-israel-palestinian-authority-icc-arrest-warrant
🔶️ "One possible action could be to freeze the transfer of tax revenues Israel collects for the Palestinian Authority. Without these funds, the Palestinian Authority would be bankrupt."
🔶️ Intentionally collapsing the PA would mean that Israel would need to take responsibility for everything from basic services to policing of the entirety of the West Bank and would officially close down the chance - albeit slim - of the PA returning to Gaza
https://www.axios.com/2024/05/01/us-israel-palestinian-authority-icc-arrest-warrant
Axios
Israel tells U.S. it will retaliate against Palestinian Authority if ICC issues arrest warrants
U.S. and Israeli officials say those actions could lead to the PA's collapse.
📢 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 IDF chief tours Lebanese border, says military preparing for an offensive
🔶️ IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi met with troops on the Lebanon border earlier today, the military says.
🔶️ The IDF says Halevi held an assessment with the head of the Northern Command, Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, the commander of the 146th Division, Brig. Gen. Yisrael Shomer and other officers.
🔶️ “You are doing an excellent job of operational defense in the north, and we are preparing for an offensive in the north,” Halevi adds.
🔶️ The visit comes amid repeated Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel amid the war in Gaza.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-chief-tours-lebanese-border-says-military-preparing-for-an-offensive/
🔶️ IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi met with troops on the Lebanon border earlier today, the military says.
🔶️ The IDF says Halevi held an assessment with the head of the Northern Command, Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, the commander of the 146th Division, Brig. Gen. Yisrael Shomer and other officers.
🔶️ “You are doing an excellent job of operational defense in the north, and we are preparing for an offensive in the north,” Halevi adds.
🔶️ The visit comes amid repeated Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel amid the war in Gaza.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-chief-tours-lebanese-border-says-military-preparing-for-an-offensive/
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The Times of Israel
IDF chief tours Lebanese border, says military preparing for an offensive
* * *
Forwarded from Patriot Front
@PatriotFrontUpdates » Activists gathered in Montana to hold a memorial ceremony at the site of George Armstrong Custer's last stand at the Battle of Little Bighorn, where American cavalrymen sacrificed themselves for the completion of Manifest Destiny. 🇺🇸
Afterwards, activists assembled in protest of a obscene and degenerate "drag" show being peddled to children in the town of Livingston. Members were positively received by other protesters. Other forms of action such as training, and flyer placements also took place across the state.🥊
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Afterwards, activists assembled in protest of a obscene and degenerate "drag" show being peddled to children in the town of Livingston. Members were positively received by other protesters. Other forms of action such as training, and flyer placements also took place across the state.
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