It might be more accurate to imagine that people's formative years have large, persistent impacts on their beliefs. A study by Andy Gelman showed how.
In the Gelman model, high presidential approval during a (White) birth cohort's teen years leads them to favor that president's party for the rest of their lives. Whatever the reason, it's as if they're acting to bring back the 'good old days' of their cognizant childhood. To get an idea of how this looks, look at Eisenhower Republicans:
The Eisenhower Republicans were those who missed most of the FDR years and were socialized in ten straight years of Republicans, of which the Eisenhower years had positive spin. As a result, that cohort became very pro-Republican, but then the very pro-Democrat Kennedy and Johnson years moderated them back to being a bit less pro-Republican.
The 1960s Liberals were born a bit later than the Eisenhower Republicans and they got to experience the pro-Kennedy and Johnson years in their formative years, but the next 25 years of strongly pro-Republican sentiment brought them to near-neutrality.
One of the most well-known political generations is the Reagan Conservatives. This generation got to experience strong pro-Republican sentiment and they ushered in the real Reagan Revolution: a cohort with strong pro-Republican leanings and little moderation due to the balance of sentiment between Clinton and Bush II, and Obama's nearly neutral sentiment.
Other cohorts like the New Deal Democrats and Millennials have their own biases that follow from the same dynamics, and if you plot them all together, you get a clear picture of the sentiment of the White electorate:
Now do note, I said Whites. This model works slightly better for non-Southern than for Southern Whites, and compared to those two groups, it works less than half as well for non-White minorities.
In any case, this model based on formative year impacts can explain roughly 90% of the variance in vote choices in the electorate. If you want to get people's votes, get them early in life, and you might be able to hold them through waves of less popular candidates from your own party.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1827799368038219999.html
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Top NASA engineers advocate for DEI and praise their white co-workers for staying quiet and listening.
🔗 TENET Media
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
🔸 Mission commander: Jared Isaacman
🔸 Mission pilot: Kidd Poteet
🔸 Mission specialist: Sarah Gillis
🔸 Mission specialist and medical officer: Anna Menon
SpaceX might be the only company capable of putting humanity back on the Moon again and take it to Mars.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
🔸 Complicity for illegal transactions by organized crime groups
🔸 Refusal to provide the authorities with information or documents necessary for criminal investigations
🔸 Complicity - Dissemination of porn featuring minors
🔸 Complicity - Making it possible for organized groups to share porn featuring minors
🔸 Complicity - Acquisition, transport, possession and sale of narcotics
🔸 Complicity - Providing tools for cyber attacks
🔸 Complicity - Organized fraud
🔸 Association of criminals with the intent to commit a crime punishable by 5 years
🔸 Money laundering
🔸 Providing cryptology services aiming to ensure confidentiality without certified declaration
🔸 Providing a cryptology tool not solely ensuring authentication or integrity monitoring without prior declaration
🔸 Importing a cryptology tool ensuring authentication or integrity monitoring without prior declaration
Durov is to remain in detention until August 28th.
@CIG_telegram
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
This report appeared in the June 30, 1969, issue of The Nation.
The Rev. David Eaton, pastor of Washington, D.C.’s largest inner-city Unitarian church, spoke as follows to a white suburban audience filled with space and electronic experts: “The $23 billion we’ve spent going to the moon has stolen money the black man needs for job retraining and schools.”
This black view of space is becoming more apparent. During the Apollo 10 moon orbit, a civil rights group picketed the Manned Spacecraft Center in Houston, demanding that money be switched from bases on the moon to housing on the earth. The Afro-American continues its wry comments about a country that can send men to the moon but cannot find jobs at home for its black population.
Even white political leaders are picking up the theme. Sen. Edward Kennedy has urged in several campus speeches that space money be diverted to pressing domestic problems. Rep. William F. Ryan form New York City’s 20th District, put it more strongly: “For years we’ve been blindly rubber-stamping space programs and it’s hurt the poor man two ways. First of all it’s taken money away he’s needed for better schools, housing, things like that. Worse yet, it hasn’t given him anything in tertian in the way of a better job.”
Those concerned with the unemployment and under-employment of Negroes are disillusioned with more than NASA. They are upset that the entire system spends millions on designs by white engineers, drawn up in buildings built by white contractors, where the offices are full of white secretaries. They say the problem of discrimination goes all the way from the electrical unions that install wiring for the computers to paper companies that supply everything from printout forms to towels in the rest-room.
Of more concern to the Negro community, however, is the lack of black personnel in middle management and technical jobs. “Space was a wide open field when it started,” William Beck, science teacher in a well-kept, suburban Negro community, points out. “Nobody knew anything. And look at the kinds of jobs that were created—communications, electronics, many of them not even for college graduates. Black kids could have learned just as white kids… but where are they?”
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
The Nation
Space Is Not Black
Days before the Apollo 11 launch in 1969, The Nation lamented a government that spent freely on white astronauts, engineers, and contractors, but could not find jobs at home for its black population.
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
2006: 1
2007: 1
2008: 2
2009: 1
2010: 2
2011: 0
2012: 2
2013: 3
2014: 6
2015: 7
2016: 9
2017: 18
2018: 21
2019: 13
2020: 27
2021: 33
2022: 61
2023: 98
2024: 82 as of August 26
Elon Musk: SpaceX is doing a major launch every ~3 days now.
Next year, a launch every ~2 days.
We will probably deliver close to 90% of payload mass to Earth orbit and beyond this year.
🔗 Elon Musk
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Monday the federal government will reduce the number of temporary foreign workers in Canada after a historic surge that some experts say has fuelled unemployment among immigrants and young people.
The government loosened restrictions during a severe post-COVID labour shortage — a decision that led, in particular, to a spike in the number of low-wage temporary workers.
Trudeau said employers in high unemployment areas — places where the unemployment rate is six per cent or higher — will not be able to hire low-wage temporary foreign workers (TFWs), with limited exceptions for "food security sectors" like agriculture and food and fish processing as well as construction and health care where acute staffing shortages still exist.
In another reversal, the government said employers will no longer be allowed to hire more than 10 per cent of their total workforce through the TFW program.
As well, low-wage TFWs will also be limited to one-year contracts, down from the current two.
📝 Maxime Bernier: Trudeau finally stops listening to his corporate sponsors that demand cheap labour and begins imposing minor restrictions on immigration. All it took was a massive replacement of the White Canadian population and the unemployment graph to rise to an unacceptable figure to do it. Trudeau and the fake conservative, Poilievre who smeared people for speaking out against immigration, will always choose their interests and those of their sponsors and back down when the problem becomes impossible to ignore.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
CBC
Trudeau announces reduction in temporary foreign workers, suggests more immigration changes to come | CBC News
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Monday the federal government will reduce the number of temporary foreign workers in Canada after a historic surge that some experts say has fuelled unemployment among immigrants and young people.
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES (½ Dead)
Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
— 🇵🇸/🇮🇱 NEW: Al-Qassam Brigades ambush Israeli forces by targeting them with TBG shells and detonating explosives in a tunnel entrance.
@Middle_East_Spectator
@Middle_East_Spectator
Forwarded from Middle East Spectator — MES
— 🇮🇷/🇸🇾 NEW: The Islamic Republic of Iran is pouring millions of dollars into the construction and reconstruction of schools, hospitals and other infrastructure in Syria
Abdul Rahman al-Dakhil school in Aleppo was completely destroyed after being used as a hideout by terrorist fighters in 2013-2014, but it has now been completely restored, with Iranian funding in cooperation with Syrian civil engineers and construction workers. Above, you can see the before & after pictures.
@Middle_East_Spectator
Abdul Rahman al-Dakhil school in Aleppo was completely destroyed after being used as a hideout by terrorist fighters in 2013-2014, but it has now been completely restored, with Iranian funding in cooperation with Syrian civil engineers and construction workers. Above, you can see the before & after pictures.
@Middle_East_Spectator
🇳🇪 🇧🇯 🛢 🇨🇳 — Niger Republic resumes export of crude oil to Benin ports through Chinese-funded pipeline
➡️ An agent with the West African Gas Pipeline Company (Wapco), which operates the pipeline, told Reuters that the Aura M, a Liberian-flagged crude oil tanker, had loaded around one million barrels of oil from Niger at the Benin port on Tuesday.
➡️ The ship bound for China, where it was due to arrive on Oct. 10, the data showed. It was last spotted on Tuesday in the Gulf of Guinea, just off the West African coast.
➡️ Niger's disputed ban on Benin related to political disagreements within the West African regional bloc known as ECOWAS that led it to impose sanctions on Niger last year.
➡️ ECOWAS later lifted sanctions on Niger, after junta-led governments in the region coordinated to leave the bloc.
🔗 Link
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from Africa Intel
🇲🇱 Mali suspends French news channel LCI for two months
Mali's military-led government has suspended broadcasting by French private news channel LCI on its territory for two months, alleging "false accusations" were made on air against the army and its Russian allies.
"The services of LCI television are withdrawn from the bundles of all distributors of radio or television broadcasting services authorised in Mali for a period of two months" from 23 August, Mali's media regulator (HAC) said in a statement on Saturday.
HAC objected to comments made by military specialist Colonel Michel Goya in a programme broadcast on LCI noscriptd "Wagner Decimated in Mali: the Hand of Kyiv".
The communications authority said the programme, broadcast on 27 July, contained "disparaging remarks, gratuitous assertions and false accusations of exactions against the Malian armed forces and their Russian partners".
#Mali
@africaintel
Mali's military-led government has suspended broadcasting by French private news channel LCI on its territory for two months, alleging "false accusations" were made on air against the army and its Russian allies.
"The services of LCI television are withdrawn from the bundles of all distributors of radio or television broadcasting services authorised in Mali for a period of two months" from 23 August, Mali's media regulator (HAC) said in a statement on Saturday.
HAC objected to comments made by military specialist Colonel Michel Goya in a programme broadcast on LCI noscriptd "Wagner Decimated in Mali: the Hand of Kyiv".
The communications authority said the programme, broadcast on 27 July, contained "disparaging remarks, gratuitous assertions and false accusations of exactions against the Malian armed forces and their Russian partners".
#Mali
@africaintel
Forwarded from Africa Intel
🇸🇩 A dam collapses in eastern Sudan after heavy rainfall and local media report dozens missing
A dam collapsed in Sudan’s eastern Red Sea state, sending water flooding over nearby homes, the country’s health ministry said. Local media said dozens of people are missing.
In a statement late Sunday, the ministry said that the Arbaat dam had collapsed and that resources had been deployed to the area to help the people who had been stranded.
The statement said at least four people had died in the floodwaters but did not give an estimate of how many were missing. However, a local official told the Sudanese news site Al-Tagheer that he believed there to be at least 60 dead. Amr Eissa Taher, the head water resources official for the Red Sea state, said the damage was extensive.
#Sudan
@africaintel
A dam collapsed in Sudan’s eastern Red Sea state, sending water flooding over nearby homes, the country’s health ministry said. Local media said dozens of people are missing.
In a statement late Sunday, the ministry said that the Arbaat dam had collapsed and that resources had been deployed to the area to help the people who had been stranded.
The statement said at least four people had died in the floodwaters but did not give an estimate of how many were missing. However, a local official told the Sudanese news site Al-Tagheer that he believed there to be at least 60 dead. Amr Eissa Taher, the head water resources official for the Red Sea state, said the damage was extensive.
#Sudan
@africaintel
Forwarded from AZMEDIA1
India: Moneycontrol media : India is also investigating Telegram and, depending on the results, may even ban it.
Join 👉 https://news.1rj.ru/str/azmedia01
Join 👉 https://news.1rj.ru/str/azmedia01
Forwarded from Middle East OSINT
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
📹 Israel Defense Forces spokesperson published an illustration of the pre-emptive airstrikes against Hezbollah.
According to the IDF, over 100 warplanes struck targets in South Lebanon sector on both banks of the Litani River and in the Beqaa sector.
According to the IDF, over 100 warplanes struck targets in South Lebanon sector on both banks of the Litani River and in the Beqaa sector.
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
The bloodshed in Solingen is causing a new dispute over the right asylum policy. CDU head Merz provided concrete deportation plans. Now SPD general secretary Kühnert counters with reference to the Basic Law.
"He has made many proposals, they do not go legally," now countered SPD general secretary Kevin Kühnert in the ARD "Morgenmagazin" – and rejected Merz’s plans for a tightened asylum policy. He referred to the individual right to asylum. Merz's plans did not go, "because the constitution, our basic order, is contrary".
"The answer cannot be that we, among other things, are people who flee Islamists themselves, (...) now slammed the door at their noses," Kühnert argued. Rather, the radicalisation of young men must be countered. "We need to look at hate preachers in the net, we have to look at how radicalisation is taking place," said Kühnert.
Kühnert assured that the government is working on solutions when it comes to deportation of intensive criminals. In the case of Solingen's suspect, he could have been deported to Bulgaria, said the SPD politician. Bulgaria was "please all we read," to take back the man. The state government in North Rhine-Westphalia must now "lay on the table" why the return did not work.
According to information from SPIEGEL, the suspect came to Germany at the end of 2022 and applied for asylum. He has not been known to the security authorities as an Islamic extremist. The suspect's asylum application was rejected. It should therefore be deported to Bulgaria last year. The attempt failed in June 2023. He entered the European Union via the country.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Spiegel
Kühnert erteilt Merz’ Asylplänen eine Absage
Die Bluttat von Solingen sorgt für neuen Streit über die richtige Asylpolitik. CDU-Chef Merz lieferte konkrete Abschiebepläne. Nun kontert SPD-Generalsekretär Kühnert mit Verweis auf das Grundgesetz.