Many altcoins have already retraced most of the dead cat bounce. Much lower prices are likely.
Stay safe.
Stay safe.
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Hope you all had a good weekend!
This week I'm going to be more active and share some interesting ideas.
This week I'm going to be more active and share some interesting ideas.
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GM!
As you know, I’ve been bearish since May 9th [https://x.com/CryptoCapo_/status/1920812200735719459] and I’ve been building short positions since then. I'm now fully net short and still adding, especially on altcoins.
Most altcoins are 30%-50% down from the May local top, which was called perfectly. The only asset holding up well is $BTC, mainly due to the institutional strategic reserves being accumulated. This creates constant buying pressure.
However, all of this buying pressure and the price is still at 108k? Something feels off... There must be bigger whales distributing here. A few days ago, several Satoshi-era (2009-2011) wallets got activated after 14 years, for a total of 80,009 $BTC ($8.69B):
[https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1941152575514198214].
We still don’t know if that supply will be sold, but it gives you a hint about what big players might be doing above $100k. And it all points to distribution.
As I've said before, $100k is a key level. A clean break below it would take the price to the next support level which is $92k-93k. A clean break below that, and the main target of $60k-70k would be reached and altcoins would drop a further 50%-80% in a capitulation event.
What could trigger such a strong bearish move? Well, charts always speak first and then the news follows. But there are several narratives, and in my opinion, the most likely one is related to the China–Taiwan conflict:
The China–Taiwan situation has been quietly escalating for months, and it's now reaching a critical point, even if it’s not getting much mainstream attention.
A partial or temporary blockade of Taiwan would likely have severe consequences for global markets. Taiwan is the backbone of the global semiconductor supply chain, producing over 60% of all chips and more than 90% of the most advanced ones. Even a short disruption could trigger panic in tech, energy, and shipping sectors. Supply chains would collapse, shipping routes through the Taiwan Strait would be blocked, and inflation could spike again. Asian markets would take the biggest hit, but global equities would follow. Risk-off sentiment would dominate, and crypto wouldn’t be immune. If tensions escalate further, this could be the event that triggers the full bearish move.
Stay safe.
As you know, I’ve been bearish since May 9th [https://x.com/CryptoCapo_/status/1920812200735719459] and I’ve been building short positions since then. I'm now fully net short and still adding, especially on altcoins.
Most altcoins are 30%-50% down from the May local top, which was called perfectly. The only asset holding up well is $BTC, mainly due to the institutional strategic reserves being accumulated. This creates constant buying pressure.
However, all of this buying pressure and the price is still at 108k? Something feels off... There must be bigger whales distributing here. A few days ago, several Satoshi-era (2009-2011) wallets got activated after 14 years, for a total of 80,009 $BTC ($8.69B):
[https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1941152575514198214].
We still don’t know if that supply will be sold, but it gives you a hint about what big players might be doing above $100k. And it all points to distribution.
As I've said before, $100k is a key level. A clean break below it would take the price to the next support level which is $92k-93k. A clean break below that, and the main target of $60k-70k would be reached and altcoins would drop a further 50%-80% in a capitulation event.
What could trigger such a strong bearish move? Well, charts always speak first and then the news follows. But there are several narratives, and in my opinion, the most likely one is related to the China–Taiwan conflict:
The China–Taiwan situation has been quietly escalating for months, and it's now reaching a critical point, even if it’s not getting much mainstream attention.
A partial or temporary blockade of Taiwan would likely have severe consequences for global markets. Taiwan is the backbone of the global semiconductor supply chain, producing over 60% of all chips and more than 90% of the most advanced ones. Even a short disruption could trigger panic in tech, energy, and shipping sectors. Supply chains would collapse, shipping routes through the Taiwan Strait would be blocked, and inflation could spike again. Asian markets would take the biggest hit, but global equities would follow. Risk-off sentiment would dominate, and crypto wouldn’t be immune. If tensions escalate further, this could be the event that triggers the full bearish move.
Stay safe.
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Important Reminder
I do not have any Instagram or other social media accounts besides X and Telegram. Please be cautious and avoid falling for scams or impersonators.
You can find me only on:
X (Twitter): https://x.com/CryptoCapo_
Telegram: https://news.1rj.ru/str/CryptoCapoTG
Any other accounts claiming to be me are fake.
Also, Telegram may display ads due to their own policy. I don’t control them, and they are not related to my content.
Stay safe and always verify information carefully.
I do not have any Instagram or other social media accounts besides X and Telegram. Please be cautious and avoid falling for scams or impersonators.
You can find me only on:
X (Twitter): https://x.com/CryptoCapo_
Telegram: https://news.1rj.ru/str/CryptoCapoTG
Any other accounts claiming to be me are fake.
Also, Telegram may display ads due to their own policy. I don’t control them, and they are not related to my content.
Stay safe and always verify information carefully.
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More and more people on CT are now talking about patience. Just a few years ago, it was barely mentioned, even when its importance stood out the most. Seeing it gain attention now is a good sign.
But mentioning it isn’t enough.
Patience must be practiced. And to do that, you need more than just time and concepts.
You need emotional and mental balance, as Warren Buffett wisely said.
That balance only comes through inner work.
That’s where the real secret lies — the secret to happiness, health, wealth, meaningful relationships...
What does “inner work” mean?
It means working harder on yourself than on your job. It means silencing external noise so you can look inward and face your shadows. It means reconnecting with your essence, your spirit, and what cannot be seen with your physical eyes.
Through this, you find a sense of purpose. And when you truly have purpose, your whole perspective shifts.
You start enjoying the journey, even your mistakes, because you love what you do.
And from there, patience comes naturally.
But mentioning it isn’t enough.
Patience must be practiced. And to do that, you need more than just time and concepts.
You need emotional and mental balance, as Warren Buffett wisely said.
That balance only comes through inner work.
That’s where the real secret lies — the secret to happiness, health, wealth, meaningful relationships...
What does “inner work” mean?
It means working harder on yourself than on your job. It means silencing external noise so you can look inward and face your shadows. It means reconnecting with your essence, your spirit, and what cannot be seen with your physical eyes.
Through this, you find a sense of purpose. And when you truly have purpose, your whole perspective shifts.
You start enjoying the journey, even your mistakes, because you love what you do.
And from there, patience comes naturally.
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Prices going higher than expected but buying here is a mistake imo.
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GM
Market update:
Bitcoin continues to show remarkable strength since June 22nd (Middle East ceasefire). Some alts are catching up, but most remain in clear downtrends and forming lower highs. Traditional markets are showing signs of weakness and a potential top formation.
Euphoria around BTC is evident, and a reversal remains just a matter of time in my opinion.
Currently, all my short positions are in a loss. Luckily, I use very low leverage, so to the disappointment of many, I'm not liquidated yet. And even if I were, these positions are far from representing my entire net worth. They're strategic positions supporting my thesis and hedging against a potential black swan event, which remains likely even if the idea sounds crazy right now.
Staying calm despite adversity. Not everything plays out immediately. Have a good week!
Market update:
Bitcoin continues to show remarkable strength since June 22nd (Middle East ceasefire). Some alts are catching up, but most remain in clear downtrends and forming lower highs. Traditional markets are showing signs of weakness and a potential top formation.
Euphoria around BTC is evident, and a reversal remains just a matter of time in my opinion.
Currently, all my short positions are in a loss. Luckily, I use very low leverage, so to the disappointment of many, I'm not liquidated yet. And even if I were, these positions are far from representing my entire net worth. They're strategic positions supporting my thesis and hedging against a potential black swan event, which remains likely even if the idea sounds crazy right now.
Staying calm despite adversity. Not everything plays out immediately. Have a good week!
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To clarify some things:
- Am I wrong since the June 22, 2025 local bottom?
Yes, no doubt. I expected a DCB. Instead BTC printed a new ATH and alts squeezed. Happens.
- Am I liquidated?
No, low leverage. Also remember I didn't sell all my altcoins while taking profits in May, just 50% [https://news.1rj.ru/str/CryptoCapoTG/1242]. Then I shorted more alts and went net short.
I’m now selling more spot alts to add margin.
- Is the idea invalidated?
Not yet. Capitulation event / black swan is still likely, even if right now it might sound crazy. Timing bad ≠ thesis dead.
- Am I worried?
Not really.
I’ve been right in public (recently, March/April local bottom; May local top. In the past: 2017 bull run, 2018 bear market, 2019 local top, 2020 covid crash, 2021 bull market, 2022 bear market including LUNA and FTX collapses...) and wrong in public (2020 after covid crash and 2023 bull market when I was bearish, part of 2024, now...).
That’s part of trading. Adapt and manage size.
– What actually worries me?
People copy trades me or any other analyst without context, no risk plan, high leverage. I manage leverage carefully (small size, margin adds, invalidation before liquidation). That doesn’t mean you should use leverage. I keep saying: avoid leverage if you don’t fully understand the risks.
Stay safe.
- Am I wrong since the June 22, 2025 local bottom?
Yes, no doubt. I expected a DCB. Instead BTC printed a new ATH and alts squeezed. Happens.
- Am I liquidated?
No, low leverage. Also remember I didn't sell all my altcoins while taking profits in May, just 50% [https://news.1rj.ru/str/CryptoCapoTG/1242]. Then I shorted more alts and went net short.
I’m now selling more spot alts to add margin.
- Is the idea invalidated?
Not yet. Capitulation event / black swan is still likely, even if right now it might sound crazy. Timing bad ≠ thesis dead.
- Am I worried?
Not really.
I’ve been right in public (recently, March/April local bottom; May local top. In the past: 2017 bull run, 2018 bear market, 2019 local top, 2020 covid crash, 2021 bull market, 2022 bear market including LUNA and FTX collapses...) and wrong in public (2020 after covid crash and 2023 bull market when I was bearish, part of 2024, now...).
That’s part of trading. Adapt and manage size.
– What actually worries me?
People copy trades me or any other analyst without context, no risk plan, high leverage. I manage leverage carefully (small size, margin adds, invalidation before liquidation). That doesn’t mean you should use leverage. I keep saying: avoid leverage if you don’t fully understand the risks.
Stay safe.
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CryptoCapo TG
$SOL update $170-200 target was reached. Now bearish.
$SOL update
Retesting the same old $170-200 resistance zone.
Main target remains $60-80.
Retesting the same old $170-200 resistance zone.
Main target remains $60-80.
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If you feel like you're missing out, don't worry.
As I always say, there will always be opportunities, even much better ones.
I've been bearish since May, and yes, the market bounced hard recently. But I still believe a big drop is coming very soon. After that, I expect a massive recovery into October–November.
That’s where I see the real opportunity to make life-changing money.
I have a clear and detailed plan for this year, and I'm very confident about it.
Just be patient. Don’t FOMO now.
As I always say, there will always be opportunities, even much better ones.
I've been bearish since May, and yes, the market bounced hard recently. But I still believe a big drop is coming very soon. After that, I expect a massive recovery into October–November.
That’s where I see the real opportunity to make life-changing money.
I have a clear and detailed plan for this year, and I'm very confident about it.
Just be patient. Don’t FOMO now.
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On the other hand, trading is my job and passion, but I also invest long-term. I accumulate assets I truly believe in, including gold, silver, and a few high-potential crypto projects that I’ll share soon.
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