Do NOT FOMO here.

Prices going higher than expected but buying here is a mistake imo.

$BTC

Blow-off top?

The calm before the storm.

Have a good Sunday!

GM

Market update:

Bitcoin continues to show remarkable strength since June 22nd (Middle East ceasefire). Some alts are catching up, but most remain in clear downtrends and forming lower highs. Traditional markets are showing signs of weakness and a potential top formation.

Euphoria around BTC is evident, and a reversal remains just a matter of time in my opinion.

Currently, all my short positions are in a loss. Luckily, I use very low leverage, so to the disappointment of many, I'm not liquidated yet. And even if I were, these positions are far from representing my entire net worth. They're strategic positions supporting my thesis and hedging against a potential black swan event, which remains likely even if the idea sounds crazy right now.


Staying calm despite adversity. Not everything plays out immediately. Have a good week!

$BNB

Price is at range high resistance.

Mid-range support at $350-400.

To clarify some things:

- Am I wrong since the June 22, 2025 local bottom?

Yes, no doubt. I expected a DCB. Instead BTC printed a new ATH and alts squeezed. Happens.


- Am I liquidated?

No, low leverage. Also remember I didn't sell all my altcoins while taking profits in May, just 50% [https://news.1rj.ru/str/CryptoCapoTG/1242]. Then I shorted more alts and went net short.
I’m now selling more spot alts to add margin.


- Is the idea invalidated?

Not yet. Capitulation event / black swan is still likely, even if right now it might sound crazy. Timing bad ≠ thesis dead.


- Am I worried?

Not really.

I’ve been right in public (recently, March/April local bottom; May local top. In the past: 2017 bull run, 2018 bear market, 2019 local top, 2020 covid crash, 2021 bull market, 2022 bear market including LUNA and FTX collapses...) and wrong in public (2020 after covid crash and 2023 bull market when I was bearish, part of 2024, now...).

That’s part of trading. Adapt and manage size.


– What actually worries me?

People copy trades me or any other analyst without context, no risk plan, high leverage. I manage leverage carefully (small size, margin adds, invalidation before liquidation). That doesn’t mean you should use leverage. I keep saying: avoid leverage if you don’t fully understand the risks.



Stay safe.

High probability local top is in.

Enjoy the weekend.

$SOL update

Retesting the same old $170-200 resistance zone.

Main target remains $60-80.

If you feel like you're missing out, don't worry.

As I always say, there will always be opportunities, even much better ones.

I've been bearish since May, and yes, the market bounced hard recently. But I still believe a big drop is coming very soon. After that, I expect a massive recovery into October–November.
That’s where I see the real opportunity to make life-changing money.

I have a clear and detailed plan for this year, and I'm very confident about it.

Just be patient. Don’t FOMO now.

On the other hand, trading is my job and passion, but I also invest long-term. I accumulate assets I truly believe in, including gold, silver, and a few high-potential crypto projects that I’ll share soon.

$BTC gives the first bearish confirmation below $115k.

$ENA update

One of the few altcoins I didn't sell, as you can see on the quoted post.

It has now reached the mid range at $0.50-0.55. If the bearish scenario plays out, we could still see a last leg down towards the range low at $0.20 (ATL).

If that happens, I’ll be buying more. Same plan as before.

Starting to get the first bearish confirmations on LTF for many altcoins. Signs of trend reversal.

If you're wondering why your alts aren't really going up, it's because the altseason hasn't started yet, and it's likely we'll see another big shakeout before it does.

GM!

Interest rate decision today. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged.

Even if there's a rate cut, I don't see it as a bullish event. Mostly because it's already priced in. And historically, every time there's been a rate cut after a long period of high interest rates, it's been a sign of recession (until rates reach a very low level, which is the bullish sign). More on this post I wrote in 2024: https://news.1rj.ru/str/CryptoCapoTG/404

In short: the idea remains the same. Staying aware of macro events is important, but price action speaks first. And the charts keep showing warning signs.

Reversal confirmed. Some of my short positions are back in profits.

We should see new lows this month.

There’s a time for everything.

There will be a time to get very bullish.
There will be a time when altcoins pump hard for weeks.
That time will come.

But this isn’t it. This is a time to be bearish.

Plan for the future. Act in the present.

Interesting how, despite all the bearish signals, people keep buying the dip.

The risk of a black swan event is still high. If it happens, we could see $BTC drop to $60k–$70k and alts crashing 50–80%.

Big week ahead. Time to stay focused, volatility is coming.

I hope you had a great weekend!

This looks like redistribution before lower.

$110k should be next. Clean break below it, and bearish acceleration starts.