BTC - Monthly

Zooming out more, we can see how BTC is hitting monthly resistance.

The other day's move does not change the nature of the entire rally from the lows. A bear market rally caused mostly by liquidity gaps + manipulation. There is no doubt that it's going higher than expected and taking very long, but the main idea remains basically the same. The key is to be sure of what you do and have patience.

I try to apply common sense and not get carried away by sentiments and meaningless news or narratives. The reality is that macro looks bad. A recession is around the corner, sadly we have two major active wars, and for cryptos specifically, more regulations are coming that would have a negative impact at first (due to the push of the CBDCs agenda) and it’s very likely that Binance will have more problems that could shake the market strongly and especially BNB, which is why it remains my largest short position.

Stocks look weak. The rise they have had this year has been losing strength and it’s beginning to turn around, confirming the bear market rally. This is reflected very well in the SPX. Also the dollar is showing a lot of strength.

With this said, BTC has to reverse the bullish trend it has formed from the lows. A good first step would be to get below 31k to confirm the deviation, and ideally below 30k which also acts as a psychological level.

Let's see what happens these next few days.

BTC

Bearish divergences have been formed on most timeframes. Ltf looks like a distribution pattern, but once again, we need confirmations. First one would be a clean break below $33,500. That would take the price to 30k-31k at least. There we would have to see the price reaction in order to know if the entire move up from 30k to 35k is a deviation (fakeout) or a real breakout.

Have a good weekend everyone!

Much more confirmations are needed, but there's a good chance that the local top is in.

You can call me crazy, permabear, stubborn or whatever, but in my opinion the bearish scenario is still likely. Every single day I check the hundreds of charts for hours and hours and see the exact same thing.

Sentiment right now is extremely bullish. Fundings, F&G index and other indicators confirm this, but you can just check Twitter or any TG channel and you will notice the same. This sentiment and and the PA don't correspond to the current macro state (forming a divergence) and most charts look over extended and with declining volume. They are prolonging this run as much as possible, but the longer the artificial run...

Stay safe.

It's important to know how to close losing positions in time to avoid further losses. The shorts I closed 2-3 weeks ago (AAVE, SOL, CRO and TRX) are going up much more and the losses would be much worse now.

Overall I think BTC is forming a local top. Some altcoins could run more in the meantime, but everything is very over extended as explained in the previous post.

Not opening any new positions yet until clear confirmations.

BNB update

Bounced from the range low once again. It has a strong resistance level right above. Interaction with this level is going to be important for the short-term:

-A clean rejection from that level + break of the current mid tf bullish trend = good for bearish continuation. A clean close below $220 would be a good bearish confirmation.

-S/R flip of that level would be a short-term invalidation of the main bearish scenario for BNB and I would cut my short with profits to re-enter later, doesn't matter if higher or lower (avg. entry is still $301)

The entire range keeps looking as a massive distribution range of almost over 1000 days already, with lots of reasons to think that it will eventually break down.

Some altcoins are starting to give bearish confirmations.