CryptoCapo TG
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BNB
In addition to those charts, we can see how the bounce from the low is clearly a dead cat bounce:
-Decreasing OI with increasing price
-Funding mostly positive
-Buying walls pulled when the move is over
-Corrective structure
This move is similar to all the previous bounces that formed lower highs and then made a new low. The bearish trend is strong and should continue soon.
In addition to those charts, we can see how the bounce from the low is clearly a dead cat bounce:
-Decreasing OI with increasing price
-Funding mostly positive
-Buying walls pulled when the move is over
-Corrective structure
This move is similar to all the previous bounces that formed lower highs and then made a new low. The bearish trend is strong and should continue soon.
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The other day's move does not change the nature of the entire rally from the lows. A bear market rally caused mostly by liquidity gaps + manipulation. There is no doubt that it's going higher than expected and taking very long, but the main idea remains basically the same. The key is to be sure of what you do and have patience.
I try to apply common sense and not get carried away by sentiments and meaningless news or narratives. The reality is that macro looks bad. A recession is around the corner, sadly we have two major active wars, and for cryptos specifically, more regulations are coming that would have a negative impact at first (due to the push of the CBDCs agenda) and it’s very likely that Binance will have more problems that could shake the market strongly and especially BNB, which is why it remains my largest short position.
Stocks look weak. The rise they have had this year has been losing strength and it’s beginning to turn around, confirming the bear market rally. This is reflected very well in the SPX. Also the dollar is showing a lot of strength.
With this said, BTC has to reverse the bullish trend it has formed from the lows. A good first step would be to get below 31k to confirm the deviation, and ideally below 30k which also acts as a psychological level.
Let's see what happens these next few days.
I try to apply common sense and not get carried away by sentiments and meaningless news or narratives. The reality is that macro looks bad. A recession is around the corner, sadly we have two major active wars, and for cryptos specifically, more regulations are coming that would have a negative impact at first (due to the push of the CBDCs agenda) and it’s very likely that Binance will have more problems that could shake the market strongly and especially BNB, which is why it remains my largest short position.
Stocks look weak. The rise they have had this year has been losing strength and it’s beginning to turn around, confirming the bear market rally. This is reflected very well in the SPX. Also the dollar is showing a lot of strength.
With this said, BTC has to reverse the bullish trend it has formed from the lows. A good first step would be to get below 31k to confirm the deviation, and ideally below 30k which also acts as a psychological level.
Let's see what happens these next few days.
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BTC
Bearish divergences have been formed on most timeframes. Ltf looks like a distribution pattern, but once again, we need confirmations. First one would be a clean break below $33,500. That would take the price to 30k-31k at least. There we would have to see the price reaction in order to know if the entire move up from 30k to 35k is a deviation (fakeout) or a real breakout.
Bearish divergences have been formed on most timeframes. Ltf looks like a distribution pattern, but once again, we need confirmations. First one would be a clean break below $33,500. That would take the price to 30k-31k at least. There we would have to see the price reaction in order to know if the entire move up from 30k to 35k is a deviation (fakeout) or a real breakout.
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BTC - Htf and ltf detailed
Htf: Big confluence of resistances (monthly resistance, major ascending channel, ascending TL from the lows, important support zone in Jan-Feb 2022...)
Ltf: range formed with deviation above the range high. Currently above mid-range with several tests to it. First bearish confirmation would be a clean break below $33,000-33,500
Judging by all the bearish divergences that have formed on the different timeframes, the bullish sentiment there is without really any news to back it up, and the nature of the entire movement from the bottom (corrective wave, bear market rally), I would say that we should at least see a move to 30k-31k, or lower. Confirmations are going to be key.
Wait and see mode. Trusting the plan.
Htf: Big confluence of resistances (monthly resistance, major ascending channel, ascending TL from the lows, important support zone in Jan-Feb 2022...)
Ltf: range formed with deviation above the range high. Currently above mid-range with several tests to it. First bearish confirmation would be a clean break below $33,000-33,500
Judging by all the bearish divergences that have formed on the different timeframes, the bullish sentiment there is without really any news to back it up, and the nature of the entire movement from the bottom (corrective wave, bear market rally), I would say that we should at least see a move to 30k-31k, or lower. Confirmations are going to be key.
Wait and see mode. Trusting the plan.
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Much more confirmations are needed, but there's a good chance that the local top is in.
You can call me crazy, permabear, stubborn or whatever, but in my opinion the bearish scenario is still likely. Every single day I check the hundreds of charts for hours and hours and see the exact same thing.
Sentiment right now is extremely bullish. Fundings, F&G index and other indicators confirm this, but you can just check Twitter or any TG channel and you will notice the same. This sentiment and and the PA don't correspond to the current macro state (forming a divergence) and most charts look over extended and with declining volume. They are prolonging this run as much as possible, but the longer the artificial run...
Stay safe.
You can call me crazy, permabear, stubborn or whatever, but in my opinion the bearish scenario is still likely. Every single day I check the hundreds of charts for hours and hours and see the exact same thing.
Sentiment right now is extremely bullish. Fundings, F&G index and other indicators confirm this, but you can just check Twitter or any TG channel and you will notice the same. This sentiment and and the PA don't correspond to the current macro state (forming a divergence) and most charts look over extended and with declining volume. They are prolonging this run as much as possible, but the longer the artificial run...
Stay safe.
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CryptoCapo TG
First of all, congratulations to all those who have been respectful and are profiting during this move. Recognition to those who have earned it. Secondly, for those who followed some of my altcoin analyses (even though they are not financial advice) that…
It's important to know how to close losing positions in time to avoid further losses. The shorts I closed 2-3 weeks ago (AAVE, SOL, CRO and TRX) are going up much more and the losses would be much worse now.
Overall I think BTC is forming a local top. Some altcoins could run more in the meantime, but everything is very over extended as explained in the previous post.
Not opening any new positions yet until clear confirmations.
Overall I think BTC is forming a local top. Some altcoins could run more in the meantime, but everything is very over extended as explained in the previous post.
Not opening any new positions yet until clear confirmations.
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BNB update
Bounced from the range low once again. It has a strong resistance level right above. Interaction with this level is going to be important for the short-term:
-A clean rejection from that level + break of the current mid tf bullish trend = good for bearish continuation. A clean close below $220 would be a good bearish confirmation.
-S/R flip of that level would be a short-term invalidation of the main bearish scenario for BNB and I would cut my short with profits to re-enter later, doesn't matter if higher or lower (avg. entry is still $301)
The entire range keeps looking as a massive distribution range of almost over 1000 days already, with lots of reasons to think that it will eventually break down.
Bounced from the range low once again. It has a strong resistance level right above. Interaction with this level is going to be important for the short-term:
-A clean rejection from that level + break of the current mid tf bullish trend = good for bearish continuation. A clean close below $220 would be a good bearish confirmation.
-S/R flip of that level would be a short-term invalidation of the main bearish scenario for BNB and I would cut my short with profits to re-enter later, doesn't matter if higher or lower (avg. entry is still $301)
The entire range keeps looking as a massive distribution range of almost over 1000 days already, with lots of reasons to think that it will eventually break down.
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Whether you like it or not, whether you want to look away or not, this is what has been happening all year. Not only with USDT, but also with BUSD, USDC, TUSD... These are just some examples (first image the last movement from 25k to 37k. Second image is the movement in June from 25k to 31k)
If you managed to get on the trend at a good time, congratulations. But you have to know that it's been mostly artificial and when it turns around, it's not going to be pretty.
Built on sand, unstable ground.
If you managed to get on the trend at a good time, congratulations. But you have to know that it's been mostly artificial and when it turns around, it's not going to be pretty.
Built on sand, unstable ground.
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BTC
Decreasing volume and high funding rates indicating potential distribution pattern.
First bearish confirmation below $34k
Decreasing volume and high funding rates indicating potential distribution pattern.
First bearish confirmation below $34k
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MATIC update
Still holding the short position from $0.91
Htf: same idea with same targets. I would TP in the first target most of the position, leaving some for the second target. Third target is just an idea for long-term buy.
Ltf: potential H&S. Waiting for confirmation.
Still holding the short position from $0.91
Htf: same idea with same targets. I would TP in the first target most of the position, leaving some for the second target. Third target is just an idea for long-term buy.
Ltf: potential H&S. Waiting for confirmation.
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CryptoCapo TG
BNB update Bounced from the range low once again. It has a strong resistance level right above. Interaction with this level is going to be important for the short-term: -A clean rejection from that level + break of the current mid tf bullish trend = good…
BNB update
Reaching the resistance mentioned in the previous update. Showing some rejection.
I wouldn't take the news as good news, like most people are doing. It means they have a criminal case against both Binance and CZ, which is not good for sure. Doing a bit of research you will understand the why. This just confirms it.
Reaching the resistance mentioned in the previous update. Showing some rejection.
I wouldn't take the news as good news, like most people are doing. It means they have a criminal case against both Binance and CZ, which is not good for sure. Doing a bit of research you will understand the why. This just confirms it.
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