Explanations vs Predictions

Think of explanations and predictions as tools we use to understand the world. Predictions are about guessing what will happen next, while explanations tell us why things happen the way they do.

Let’s use a Polaroid camera as an example. When you press the button on the camera, a picture comes out. Now, how do we explain this? I could make up a story and say there’s a tiny creature inside the camera who draws the picture and slides it out for you. Or, I could tell you about how the camera uses lenses, light, and photo film to create the picture.

Even though these explanations are different, the result is the same: a picture comes out when you press the button. If explanations were only for guessing what happens next, then both stories would be the same since they both get the result right.

But, these explanations are different because of the ideas behind them, which we call assumptions. Assumptions are the things we believe but don’t always say out loud when we explain something.

So, explanations do more than just help us guess what happens next. They give us a better understanding of how and why things happen, using some ideas that we might not talk about but are still important to know. Through explanations, we can dig deeper into understanding the world around us, more than just making good guesses.

#systems #ontology

Check out one of the oldest English language Telegram channels. Author writes about personal growth and road to freedom ✊

When do we need explanations?

Sometimes, things happen that catch us off guard. It's like expecting a sunny day but getting rain instead. During such times, we often find ourselves asking "why?" or "how?"

Let's say, we have a simple idea of how things work. This idea is like a map in our mind. But when something unexpected happens, it's like finding a new street on our map. We might feel surprised, especially if this new "street" was not there before.

A good surprise can make us happy, like finding a hidden $20 bill in an old jacket. Yet, we still wonder how it got there. It’s the sudden, new things that make us want to understand what's going on.

For example, let’s pretend I believed tiny make-believe creatures pedaled inside my car to make it move. This funny idea would stay with me until the day my car stops, and I have to check under the hood. Instead of finding tiny creatures, I see lots of metal parts. I’d be very surprised because this is not what I expected to see. Now, I’d want to know how a car really works.

It's like when we see something new or different, our minds become little detectives, trying to solve a mystery. Whether it's a happy surprise or an misfortune, we just want to understand what happened. And that’s why, when things don’t go as expected, we start asking questions and looking for explanations.

Today begins month of Ramadan.
It’s month when muslim people will be fasting for 30 days.
In Islam fasting is done from sunrise to sundown.
Personally I practice intermittent fasting throughout the year(4-5 days a month) whenever I feel like I’m starting to gain extra weight or I’m feeling inflammation in my body(which usually happens at the same time).

Intermittent fasting is when you don’t eat anything for at least 16 hours, after that your body cells begins to eat the broken/weak cells which can cause all kinds of sicknesses(even cancer).
Some Muslim people like to wake up to eat food before sunrise, personally I think it’s a bad idea for following reasons:
- Going back to sleep right after eating is not good for digestion;
- You’re not going to have good sleep after eating;
- You are going to decrease health benefits from fasting by shorting fasting time(don’t you want to lower chances of getting cancer?!);
- You will actually gain weight instead of loosing if you do that.

Fasting is only hard first 1-2 days after that you get used to it and you actually feel more energetic. I personally like to do something physical when I’m fasting so I don’t think about food, for example house cleaning 🧹

For Muslim i wish not only to be able to keep fast and also mental strength to keep a pure mind (which is a lot harder than not eating).

For non Muslims I suggest to try intermittent fasting if you’re experiencing inflammations in your body.

https://youtu.be/350bk9Ph3ak?si=df5wktiOigkWhK2v

Courage is in far shorter supply than genius.
https://youtu.be/E_vDZqQgmeQ?si=j_L4JzRuc0oH60r8

1983 gramma put me to shame.

https://youtu.be/jbu0kmCeLSI?si=V0ungtEcBOrX0btq

It's gonna get much worse with generative AI
https://youtu.be/5zUndMfMInc

Instead of just adding AI to old products, they create fresh, innovative experiences from scratch. This is leading to a new generation of awesome AI-driven products.

https://youtu.be/HkOJy8rMlMw

We are able to do that now using AI.

Nivi did a great job 👍

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CwiHbIV46Hwdmv9UG-5F4vCv8ymDrEKU/view?usp=drivesdk

Joe Rogan podcast with Peter Thiel without extra umms and uhhs 😆

There's an ongoing debate: can we create an AI more intelligent than all humans combined?

This brings to mind the classic Omnipotence Paradox, which questions whether an all-powerful being can create a task so challenging that even it cannot accomplish it—a logical contradiction. While humans are not omnipotent, we are currently the most intelligent beings on Earth, attempting to create an intelligence that could surpass our own and potentially escape our control. Philosophers like Aquinas argued that true omnipotence does not include the ability to perform logical contradictions, suggesting inherent limits even to infinite power. Given that, perhaps there are inherent limits to what we can create. So, can we develop an AI that fundamentally surpasses us, or are we bound by natural constraints in our creative abilities?

🔎 The Art of Verification: Distinguishing Facts from Flashy Headlines 🔎

In today’s fast-paced world, information spreads online in seconds, and it’s easy to get swept up by scientific claims backed by just one study or a “so-called expert.” But how can you really tell if what you’re seeing is true? Here’s a quick guide to help you assess the scientific validity of news, check experts’ credentials, and ensure you’re getting facts—not sensationalism.

Key Steps to Verify Information in News:

1. Use Fact-Checking Tools: Fact-checking platforms make it easier to find out if a claim has already been investigated.
• AP Fact-Check
• Fact-Check.Org
• Snopes
• Politifact
• Reuters Fact-Check
2. Check Expert Backgrounds: Tools like Google Scholar help verify an expert’s academic history, published studies, and whether they’re cited by peers—offering an overview of their credibility.
3. Look for Retractions: Retraction Watch is useful for checking whether an expert’s research has been debunked or retracted, a red flag for credibility.
4. Verify Licensing: Some professions require licenses (e.g., doctors). In the U.S., Career One Stop lists licensed professions by state, and you can verify someone’s credentials there.
5. Assess Research Quality: Google Scholar also helps evaluate the legitimacy of cited research. For accurate insights, look for meta-analyses and systematic reviews.
6. Check for Bias: Bias-detection tools assess media outlets’ reliability and spot biased or sensational sources.
• Is This Credible (by Factual) – Unfortunately unavailable at the moment
• Media Bias Fact-Check
7. Guidelines for Further Research: Organizations like the News Literacy Project, Pierce College, and Mind Tools provide additional resources for evaluating news sources.

In the end, a few extra steps go a long way in ensuring you’re accessing trustworthy information. Use these tools to look deeper, separate hype from fact, and make informed decisions. 🌐🔍