🔒 Over 14M #BTC is now illiquid

That's 2/3 of all Bitcoin ever to exist, now in hands that rarely (if ever) sell. In the last 30 days alone, 180,000 BTC moved into wallets with low spending history.

All while whales keep accumulating above $100K.

It is crazy, close to every poll I do is like 50/50.

On the one hand, it is interesting as it shows that statistically trading is such a gamble, on the other hand 50/50 (altough this is non-representative) shows that we might have priced in most of the things and are waiting for a signal to flash for the next direction.

I honestly have no clue myself and am very divided like you guys as well.
Chart wise, we did 5 waves up and BTC shows weakness so far at a significant resistance level which indicates a (major local) top. Furthermore, this is backed by SPX having had such a nice rallye and also is overdue for a correction.

Macro wise, tariff fud is paused for now, we simply don't know if this escalades again. I personally think the worse is far behind us and there won't be major tariff discussions dragging us down.
Aside from this, the global economy is still (like I was saying last year) in/forming a bubble. For me, I still expect a major downturn eventually but who knows when. We can go up for another week, month, year or two years but I am convinced stuff can turn down very quickly.

But for in general: As long as everyone keeps printing (which will never change) -> I prefer being invested than holding an ever inflating asset (fiat)

TL;DR: TA wise rejected, waiting for macro signal to confirm further direction.

If $SPX is going further up, this is also the signal for further bull. And currently it is trying

I believe this is all paid in stables.

Might be the alt season accellerator.

Or just everyone gambles it away in Sol casinos again. Who knows

LTF update:

Higher low on $BTC and $SPX going sideways so far. Still below resistance for BTC.

Slowly breaking through resistances 👀

$SPX

$OTHERS

⚠️🇺🇸 Moody's has downgraded the US credit rating from "AAA" to "AA1".

Not sure how much this impacts the market. Might be the tipping point for a correction on $SPX

Might be a red weekend

https://x.com/carlbmenger/status/1923860257945588068

Interesting thread.

Without Saylor, we would have hit 50k for sure in the past months.

Saylor buying.

Too bad they always sell off immediately

MicroStrategy(@Strategy) bought another 7,390 $BTC($764.85M) at an average price of $103,498 last week.

#Strategy currently holds 576,230 $BTC($59.33B), with an average buying price of $69,726 and an unrealized profit of $19.15B.
https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltf8d808d9b8cebd37/bltfba7ca0af6a9f6a8/682a9fc86555216ab73157fb/form-8-k_05-19-2025.pdf

$BTC is at least holding the LTF support here.

⛏️ Miners sold over 2,400 #BTC in the last 24 hours, valued at roughly $252 million.

Miners selling is usually bullish.
They are bad at trading.
There is a reason they are mining and not buying.