It is crazy, close to every poll I do is like 50/50.

On the one hand, it is interesting as it shows that statistically trading is such a gamble, on the other hand 50/50 (altough this is non-representative) shows that we might have priced in most of the things and are waiting for a signal to flash for the next direction.

I honestly have no clue myself and am very divided like you guys as well.
Chart wise, we did 5 waves up and BTC shows weakness so far at a significant resistance level which indicates a (major local) top. Furthermore, this is backed by SPX having had such a nice rallye and also is overdue for a correction.

Macro wise, tariff fud is paused for now, we simply don't know if this escalades again. I personally think the worse is far behind us and there won't be major tariff discussions dragging us down.
Aside from this, the global economy is still (like I was saying last year) in/forming a bubble. For me, I still expect a major downturn eventually but who knows when. We can go up for another week, month, year or two years but I am convinced stuff can turn down very quickly.

But for in general: As long as everyone keeps printing (which will never change) -> I prefer being invested than holding an ever inflating asset (fiat)

TL;DR: TA wise rejected, waiting for macro signal to confirm further direction.

If $SPX is going further up, this is also the signal for further bull. And currently it is trying

I believe this is all paid in stables.

Might be the alt season accellerator.

Or just everyone gambles it away in Sol casinos again. Who knows

LTF update:

Higher low on $BTC and $SPX going sideways so far. Still below resistance for BTC.

Slowly breaking through resistances 👀

$SPX

$OTHERS

⚠️🇺🇸 Moody's has downgraded the US credit rating from "AAA" to "AA1".

Not sure how much this impacts the market. Might be the tipping point for a correction on $SPX

Might be a red weekend

https://x.com/carlbmenger/status/1923860257945588068

Interesting thread.

Without Saylor, we would have hit 50k for sure in the past months.

Saylor buying.

Too bad they always sell off immediately

MicroStrategy(@Strategy) bought another 7,390 $BTC($764.85M) at an average price of $103,498 last week.

#Strategy currently holds 576,230 $BTC($59.33B), with an average buying price of $69,726 and an unrealized profit of $19.15B.
https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltf8d808d9b8cebd37/bltfba7ca0af6a9f6a8/682a9fc86555216ab73157fb/form-8-k_05-19-2025.pdf

$BTC is at least holding the LTF support here.

⛏️ Miners sold over 2,400 #BTC in the last 24 hours, valued at roughly $252 million.

Miners selling is usually bullish.
They are bad at trading.
There is a reason they are mining and not buying.

May 19 Update:

10 #Bitcoin ETFs
NetFlow: +2,013 $BTC(+$210.67M)🟢
#iShares(Blackrock) inflows 1,250 $BTC($130.81M) and currently holds 633,212 $BTC($66.28B).

9 #Ethereum ETFs
NetFlow: -1,002 $ETH($2.46M) 🔴
#Grayscale(ETHE) outflows 6,640 $ETH($16.33M) and currently holds 1,122,295 $ETH($2.76B).
https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1923393030415118527