Paris police detained around 40 people for setting off fireworks near the Eiffel Tower.

The incident was deemed a dangerous provocation, particularly amid heightened security ahead of the New Year period.

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How fragmented is Somalia and why does Somaliland insist on independence

Somalia was formed by unifying territories formerly controlled by the British Empire with areas previously ruled by Italy, all inhabited by ethnic Somali populations. The society is deeply tribal. Each tribe maintains its own ideology and a distinctly different way of life. The Issa tribe, which dominates Somaliland, is considerably more pragmatic and rejects radical Islam, whereas other tribes actively embrace it.

Since the outbreak of Somalia’s civil war in 1991, the state has effectively disintegrated into competing tribes locked in continuous conflict.

The Issa tribe declared the independence of the State of Somaliland and proceeded to establish functioning state institutions and government ministries, a multi-party democratic system, and levels of corruption far lower than those typically seen in Africa - certainly far lower than those of the dysfunctional government in the capital, Mogadishu.

The people of Somaliland have succeeded in insulating themselves from the civil war, famine, and chronic instability that characterize the rest of Somalia. They have built an economy based on agriculture, fishing, light industry, and trade. Consequently, they have no incentive to reintegrate into a larger, bleeding, and non-functioning Somali state.

The different colors on the map reflect the fragmentation caused by the civil war:
   •   Peach-pink areas: Territories controlled by the federal government, including the capital, Mogadishu.
   •   Fuchsia-pink areas: The autonomous Puntland administration.
   •   Gray areas: Territories controlled by al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda affiliate.
   •   Black area in northern Puntland: Territory controlled by a local militia affiliated with ISIS.
   •   Mustard-yellow area: Territory controlled by the government of Somaliland.

Somaliland - formerly a British colony - is, in practice, larger than the territory currently under the effective control of its government. While the government claims sovereignty over eastern Somaliland as part of its lawful territory, it does not presently exercise control there. It is possible that one form of assistance the Somaliland government may seek from Israel is military support to reclaim the eastern part of the country and enforce its sovereignty over it.

The capital, Hargeisa, is located on the inland plateau at an elevation of 1,611 meters above sea level. The principal port city, of significant strategic value, is Berbera.

🌍 Conflict trends in Sub-Saharan Africa, July 2024-June 2025.

"The assessment of conflict trends in Sub-Saharan Africa (July 2024 - June 2025) reveals a worrying reality: while no new conflicts emerged, nearly all existing conflicts intensified or persisted, deepening humanitarian crises across the region. With 28 internal conflicts registered in 2024, rising clashes among non-state armed groups, and declining humanitarian aid, crises in Sudan, the DRC and the Sahel continue to worsen."

https://www.iiss.org/publications/armed-conflict-survey/2025/armed-conflict-survey-2025/regional-sections-sub-saharan-africa/

📎 IISS

After expelling its rivals from the state of Apure, Venezuela, the ELN consolidated itself as the main military force. Backed by the government of Nicolás Maduro, it controls drug corridors and other illegal revenues.

https://bit.ly/4pO5aib

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 📈 DoD expects the PLA to at least launch five MORE carriers in the next 10 years?

For perspective, the USN will be buying its next five carriers over more than twice that timeline so...given that U.S. carriers are deployed globally, they will end up outnumbered in the Pacific.

One things is clear: for all the talk about the carrier being an obsolete platform because of things like drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), the Chinese (who are the world's largest producer of both) clearly haven't gotten the message.

📎 Tom Shugart

📝 🇺🇸 ⚓️ Captain John Konrad on X:
Of all the “Trump battleships are dumb” takes, the “hypersonics make Navy ships obsolete” crowd is by far the worst.

We busted this myth months ago

You think a JDAM, or any USAF bomb, could sink a modern battleship?

Hilarious.

Drone swarms? Nope. Even a tactical nuke might not sink a new BBN.

Layered air defenses, more sensors, double hulls, redundant buoyancy, heavy armor & elite damage control make a battleship a nightmare to kill.

Let me explain

A JDAM cannot sink merchant ships.

📎 John Konrad

🇨🇳 Chinese could also militarise the containers to:

- Heavy YJ-18C AShMs
- Decoy launchers
- EW Radars/Jammers
- Anti Drone Systems

📎 PLA Military Updates

🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 Russia will support China if a Taiwan contingency flares up, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with the country’s Tass news agency, as Beijing’s tensions with Japan continue to escalate over the issue.

“As for the possible escalation in the Taiwan Strait, the procedure for acting in such situations is set forth” in a treaty with China, Mr Lavrov said. “One of the basic principles” is “mutual support in defending national unity and territorial integrity.”

China and Russia have conducted joint bomber flights repeatedly over the years, prompting Japan’s Defence Ministry to describe the moves as “clearly intended for demonstration of force against Japan”.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/russia-vows-to-support-china-if-taiwan-contingency-flares-up-top-diplomat

🚢 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 Commercial "landing craft" that exist in large numbers might provide additional sealift to the beach

PRC SEALIFT UPDATE: based on a review of satellite imagery & AIS data from recent landing exercises, it appears China is practicing using dual-use civil-military landing craft for direct beach assault.

To the details: for a few years now, we've seen what've been known as "deck cargo ships" being used in PLA military transport exercises.

When we've seen these deck cargo ships in exercises before, it has been to transfer vehicles and material from port-to-port

It's hard for me to say exactly how many of these ships are out there. If you search AIS data for Chinese-flagged 85-100m cargo ships, you get 1000 or so hits. And it's hard to narrow down further since there is so little other data, and few photos.

Connecting the dots: the PRC appears to now be practicing direct beach assaults using a type of RORO cargo ship, derived from a military landing craft design, that exists in indeterminate—but certainly large—numbers, and whose operations & construction are difficult to track.

I and others have written before about the possible (major) contribution that PRC civilian ROROs could make to a landing on Taiwan.

But other than ferries dropping amphibious vehicles off modified ramps to go ashore, those ships would need ports...

...either captured ports or China's new Shuiqiao-class "invasion barge" LPUs.

These LCTs could provide additional sealift capacity of indeterminate (& perhaps significant) scale for a first beach assault, something that's often a limiting factor in assessments of the PLA's ability to land—and using ships that routinely operate all over China's east coast.

📎 Tom Shugart

🚢 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 "On the topic of China's 2024 Joint Sword exercises, we see that for the first time, the exercises included Taiwan's offshore islands - and integration of the China Coast Guard into the exercise."

"The rapid growth of the CCG's capability is something I've pointed to before."

The Great White Wall: China’s Coast Guard Expansion and What It Could Mean for the Future of Taiwan (article)

The scale of the force underscores this shift. The Chinese Coast Guard’s total displacement now surpasses that of all NATO European, and most Pacific navies, making it the largest maritime law enforcement fleet in the world by a considerable margin. This is not simply a peacetime presence. It is an instrument of national power, fielded at scale, and likely built to play a leading role in any future Taiwan crisis.

📎 Tom Shugart