🇺🇸 🇨🇳 📈 DoD expects the PLA to at least launch five MORE carriers in the next 10 years?

For perspective, the USN will be buying its next five carriers over more than twice that timeline so...given that U.S. carriers are deployed globally, they will end up outnumbered in the Pacific.

One things is clear: for all the talk about the carrier being an obsolete platform because of things like drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), the Chinese (who are the world's largest producer of both) clearly haven't gotten the message.

📎 Tom Shugart

📝 🇺🇸 ⚓️ Captain John Konrad on X:
Of all the “Trump battleships are dumb” takes, the “hypersonics make Navy ships obsolete” crowd is by far the worst.

We busted this myth months ago

You think a JDAM, or any USAF bomb, could sink a modern battleship?

Hilarious.

Drone swarms? Nope. Even a tactical nuke might not sink a new BBN.

Layered air defenses, more sensors, double hulls, redundant buoyancy, heavy armor & elite damage control make a battleship a nightmare to kill.

Let me explain

A JDAM cannot sink merchant ships.

📎 John Konrad

🇨🇳 Chinese could also militarise the containers to:

- Heavy YJ-18C AShMs
- Decoy launchers
- EW Radars/Jammers
- Anti Drone Systems

📎 PLA Military Updates

🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 Russia will support China if a Taiwan contingency flares up, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with the country’s Tass news agency, as Beijing’s tensions with Japan continue to escalate over the issue.

“As for the possible escalation in the Taiwan Strait, the procedure for acting in such situations is set forth” in a treaty with China, Mr Lavrov said. “One of the basic principles” is “mutual support in defending national unity and territorial integrity.”

China and Russia have conducted joint bomber flights repeatedly over the years, prompting Japan’s Defence Ministry to describe the moves as “clearly intended for demonstration of force against Japan”.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/russia-vows-to-support-china-if-taiwan-contingency-flares-up-top-diplomat

🚢 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 Commercial "landing craft" that exist in large numbers might provide additional sealift to the beach

PRC SEALIFT UPDATE: based on a review of satellite imagery & AIS data from recent landing exercises, it appears China is practicing using dual-use civil-military landing craft for direct beach assault.

To the details: for a few years now, we've seen what've been known as "deck cargo ships" being used in PLA military transport exercises.

When we've seen these deck cargo ships in exercises before, it has been to transfer vehicles and material from port-to-port

It's hard for me to say exactly how many of these ships are out there. If you search AIS data for Chinese-flagged 85-100m cargo ships, you get 1000 or so hits. And it's hard to narrow down further since there is so little other data, and few photos.

Connecting the dots: the PRC appears to now be practicing direct beach assaults using a type of RORO cargo ship, derived from a military landing craft design, that exists in indeterminate—but certainly large—numbers, and whose operations & construction are difficult to track.

I and others have written before about the possible (major) contribution that PRC civilian ROROs could make to a landing on Taiwan.

But other than ferries dropping amphibious vehicles off modified ramps to go ashore, those ships would need ports...

...either captured ports or China's new Shuiqiao-class "invasion barge" LPUs.

These LCTs could provide additional sealift capacity of indeterminate (& perhaps significant) scale for a first beach assault, something that's often a limiting factor in assessments of the PLA's ability to land—and using ships that routinely operate all over China's east coast.

📎 Tom Shugart

🚢 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 "On the topic of China's 2024 Joint Sword exercises, we see that for the first time, the exercises included Taiwan's offshore islands - and integration of the China Coast Guard into the exercise."

"The rapid growth of the CCG's capability is something I've pointed to before."

The Great White Wall: China’s Coast Guard Expansion and What It Could Mean for the Future of Taiwan (article)

The scale of the force underscores this shift. The Chinese Coast Guard’s total displacement now surpasses that of all NATO European, and most Pacific navies, making it the largest maritime law enforcement fleet in the world by a considerable margin. This is not simply a peacetime presence. It is an instrument of national power, fielded at scale, and likely built to play a leading role in any future Taiwan crisis.

📎 Tom Shugart

🇨🇳 🇹🇼 Chinese state media has published an additional map showing all prior joint exercise zones around Taiwan in one image.

🟨 Yellow is the 2022 Pelosi visit exercises.
🟥Red is the Joint Sword-2024A exercise.
🟦Teal is today's Justice Mission 2025 exercise

📎 Taiwan Security Monitor

🇺🇸 🇵🇷 The U.S. continues to bolster its airpower in the Caribbean, with at least 10 MQ-9A Reaper drones, 11 CV-22B Ospreys, 10 MC-130J Commando IIs, and 36 fighter aircraft now forward deployed to Puerto Rico.

• BQN: Special ops + drone hub
• RVR: Strike assets + IWOARG ACE
• SJU: C2, ISR, EW
• PSE: Navy + USMC port

📎 Ian Ellis

🇺🇸🇻🇪🇨🇴❗️ El president de Colombia, Gustavo Petro, denuncia los bombardeos sobre el país vecino.

🇬🇧 The president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, denounces the bombings of the neighboring country.

▫️@ENTRE_GUERRAS▫️

🇺🇸🇻🇪❗️ Imágenes del despliegue de vehículos militares del ejército venezolano en las calles de Caracas.

🇬🇧Images of the deployment of Venezuelan army military vehicles in the streets of Caracas.

▫️@ENTRE_GUERRAS▫️

🇺🇸🇻🇪❗️Declaración del gobierno venezolano: Rechazamos la agresión militar de EE.UU.

Ataques de EE.UU. golpean Caracas y los estados de Miranda, Aragua y La Guaira

El objetivo del ataque estadounidense es apoderarse del petróleo y los minerales venezolanos.

🇬🇧Venezuelan Government Statement: We Reject U.S. Military Aggression

U.S. Strikes Hit Caracas and the States of Miranda, Aragua and La Guaira

The goal of the U.S. attack is to seize Venezuelan oil and minerals.

🔗Sky News Arabia

▫️@ENTRE_GUERRAS▫️