Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (Jack Donovan)
@CIG_telegram
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Forwarded from 𝕀𝕟 𝕄𝕒𝕘𝕟𝕒 𝔼𝕩𝕔𝕚𝕥𝕒𝕥𝕚𝕠 (_ScalpS_)
The Strait of Hormuz situation:
Reuters is now reporting that Iran is notifying vessels that it is CLOSING the Strait of Hormuz.
If officially closed, 20+ MILLION barrels of oil PER DAY will be impacted, or 20% of global supply.
The Strait of Hormuz, between Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
This body of water controls ~20% of the world’s petroleum liquids consumption.
In other words, ONE FIFTH of global oil consumption flows through here EVERY DAY.
After US strikes on Iran last night, ships in the Strait of Hormuz are now receiving warnings.
As of 12:30 PM ET, the US has recommended ships avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
In their 2025 analysis, JP Morgan described this as their worst case scenario in an Israel-Iran war
In fact, according to JP Morgan estimates, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices to $120-$130/barrel.
This would imply a spike in US CPI inflation to ~5%.
The last time we saw US inflation at 5% was in March 2023, when the Fed was aggressively hiking rates.
🧵
Reuters is now reporting that Iran is notifying vessels that it is CLOSING the Strait of Hormuz.
If officially closed, 20+ MILLION barrels of oil PER DAY will be impacted, or 20% of global supply.
The Strait of Hormuz, between Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
This body of water controls ~20% of the world’s petroleum liquids consumption.
In other words, ONE FIFTH of global oil consumption flows through here EVERY DAY.
After US strikes on Iran last night, ships in the Strait of Hormuz are now receiving warnings.
As of 12:30 PM ET, the US has recommended ships avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
In their 2025 analysis, JP Morgan described this as their worst case scenario in an Israel-Iran war
In fact, according to JP Morgan estimates, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices to $120-$130/barrel.
This would imply a spike in US CPI inflation to ~5%.
The last time we saw US inflation at 5% was in March 2023, when the Fed was aggressively hiking rates.
🧵
Forwarded from The Cradle
❗️The European Aviation Safety Agency has issued an advisory urging airlines not to operate "within the affected airspace at all flight levels and altitudes” for Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.
The advisory states: “Given the ongoing military intervention, retaliatory actions against US and Israeli assets in the region are likely to occur, introducing additional high risks not only to the airspace of Iran but also to that of neighboring States hosting US military bases or otherwise affected by the hostilities and associated military activities, including interceptions.
The possession of all-altitude capable air-defence systems, cruise and ballistic missiles and the use of air assets capable to operate at all-altitudes, including interception capability make the entire affected airspace vulnerable to spill-over risks, misidentification, miscalculation and failure of interception procedures.”
The advisory states: “Given the ongoing military intervention, retaliatory actions against US and Israeli assets in the region are likely to occur, introducing additional high risks not only to the airspace of Iran but also to that of neighboring States hosting US military bases or otherwise affected by the hostilities and associated military activities, including interceptions.
The possession of all-altitude capable air-defence systems, cruise and ballistic missiles and the use of air assets capable to operate at all-altitudes, including interception capability make the entire affected airspace vulnerable to spill-over risks, misidentification, miscalculation and failure of interception procedures.”
Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts 🇺🇸
🇮🇷🇮🇱⚡️- "There are many signs that Khamenei is gone." - Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.
Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (Iraq)
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Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (percy)
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Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts 🇺🇸
🇶🇦🇮🇷⚡- BREAKING: Explosions over Doha, Qatar.
Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts 🇺🇸
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇸🇦⚡️- BREAKING: Initial reports of explosions in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Forwarded from NetBlocks
⚠️ Update: Metrics show #Iran has been offline for 12 hours after the regime imposed a nationwide internet blackout amid US and Israeli military strikes.
While most countries work to stay connected in times of international conflict, Iran has again silenced its own population.
While most countries work to stay connected in times of international conflict, Iran has again silenced its own population.
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (Jack Donovan)
Now the Straits of Hormuz are closed and no oil tankers can enter or exit the Persian Gulf.
According to JP Morgan estimates, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices to $120-$130/barrel.
This would imply a spike in US CPI inflation to ~5%.
Why is this the case? Because energy prices tie DIRECTLY into CPI inflation.
According to a Fed study, every $10 rally in oil prices has the ability to increase inflation by 20 bps.
Oil prices are already up ~$15 from their recent lows, potentially adding ~30 bps to CPI.
Below is a breakdown of the origin and destination of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
In 2024, exports of crude and condensate from Saudi Arabia accounted for 38% of total Hormuz crude flows (5.5 million b/d).
Even the US and EU receive oil from this passage.
🧵 Kobeissi Letter
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🧵 Thread • FxTwitter
The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)
The Strait of Hormuz situation:
Reuters is now reporting that Iran is notifying vessels that it is CLOSING the Strait of Hormuz.
If officially closed, 20+ MILLION barrels of oil PER DAY will be impacted, or 20% of global supply.
What's next? Let us explain.…
Reuters is now reporting that Iran is notifying vessels that it is CLOSING the Strait of Hormuz.
If officially closed, 20+ MILLION barrels of oil PER DAY will be impacted, or 20% of global supply.
What's next? Let us explain.…
🔥1
Forwarded from Tabz - Alternative Media (Tabz)
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Forwarded from Tabz - Alternative Media (Tabz)
Tabz - Alternative Media
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Forwarded from Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts 🇺🇸
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱⚡️- Reuters is now reporting that Ayatollah Khamenei's body was recovered from a destroyed building following an airstrike.
Forwarded from Geopolitics Watch (Angry Iowan ✞)
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Forwarded from CRYPTO NEWS
@cryptocurrency_media
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Forwarded from Tabz - Alternative Media (Tabz)
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
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@CIG_telegram
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