🛢 Roughly 20+ million barrels of oil transit the Straits of Hormuz per day which accounts for one fifth of the global oil supply.

Now the Straits of Hormuz are closed and no oil tankers can enter or exit the Persian Gulf.

According to JP Morgan estimates, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices to $120-$130/barrel.

This would imply a spike in US CPI inflation to ~5%.

Why is this the case? Because energy prices tie DIRECTLY into CPI inflation.

According to a Fed study, every $10 rally in oil prices has the ability to increase inflation by 20 bps.

Oil prices are already up ~$15 from their recent lows, potentially adding ~30 bps to CPI.

Below is a breakdown of the origin and destination of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

In 2024, exports of crude and condensate from Saudi Arabia accounted for 38% of total Hormuz crude flows (5.5 million b/d).

Even the US and EU receive oil from this passage.

🧵 Kobeissi Letter

🇮🇱❌🇮🇷❗️ — BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed in today's attacks, according to Israeli Channel 12, citing a senior official.

🇮🇱❌🇮🇷❗️ — Israeli Kan News also reports that Ayatollah Khamenei has been killed in today's opening strikes.

❗️🇮🇱🇺🇸❌🇮🇷 — Reuters has retracted its report that Supreme Leader Khamenei is alive and has denied ever releasing a report stating that. Reuters now reports that Khamenei is dead, citing senior Israeli officials.

🇺🇸🇮🇱❌🇮🇷 — The Iranian radar site in Bandar Abbas, southern Iran, was damaged as a result of US-Israeli strikes.

🇺🇸🇮🇱❌🇮🇷 — IDF Spokesperson shows the list of senior members of the Islamic Regime of Iran who were eliminated in the opening strikes by the Israeli and American Air Forces of the Operation "Roaring Lion" and Operation Epic Fury

It includes:
🇮🇷 Ali Shamkhani: Supreme Leader's security adviser, Defense Council secretary, former IRGC commander, defense minister and navy chief. Responsible for Iran's nuclear project and weapons development.

🇮🇷 Mohammad Pakpour: IRGC commander, former ground forces commander, oversaw violent crackdown on protesters and commanded strategic fire arrays against Israel.

🪖 Saleh Asadi: Head of intelligence at Khatam al‑Anbiya headquarters, the top Iranian military command's senior intelligence officer, involved in strategy against the US and Israel and planning recent attacks.

🇮🇷 Mohammad Shirazi: Head of the Supreme Leader's military bureau since 1989, responsible for liaison between senior commanders and Khamenei.

🇮🇷 Aziz Nasirzadeh: Defense Minister, former air force commander, responsible for defence industries including long‑range missiles and arms for proxies.

☢️ Hossein Jabel Aamelian: Head of SPND (Organisation for Defensive Innovation and Research), responsible for nuclear, biological and chemical weapons programmes.

☢️ Reza Mozaffari‑Nia: Former head of SPND, advanced Iran's nuclear weapons efforts.

🇶🇦🇮🇷🇺🇸⚡️ — Extensive air defense operations over Qatar.

🇶🇦🇦🇪🇮🇷🇺🇸⚡️ — Iran is targeting Doha, Qatar, and Dubai, UAE.

🇦🇪🇮🇷🇺🇸⚡️ — Multiple explosions heard in Dubai, UAE.