Forwarded from QVINTA ÆTAS
Insider Paper
Finland to allow nuclear weapons on its soil: government
"MOSCOW, March 6 (Reuters) - Russia said on Friday it would respond if Finland placed nuclear weapons on its territory, saying such a move would make the Nordic country more vulnerable.
The Kremlin reacted sharply after NATO member Finland said on Thursday it was planning to lift a longstanding ban on hosting such weapons, in a move that could open the door to placing them there during times of war.
"This is a statement that leads to an escalation of tensions on the European continent," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
"This statement adds to Finland's vulnerability, a vulnerability provoked by the actions of the Finnish authorities. The fact is that by deploying nuclear weapons on its territory, Finland is beginning to threaten us. And if Finland threatens us, we take appropriate measures."
The Finnish shift is part of a wider rethink of European deterrence that has prompted France to offer to extend the protection of its nuclear arsenal to other allies on the continent."
🔗 Source
📃 Archive on Telegraph:
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Telegraph
Russia warns Finland it will be more vulnerable if it hosts nuclear weapons
Item 1 of 2 French President Emmanuel Macron and Finland's President Alexander Stubb attend a Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8) work video conference at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France February 23, 2026. Thomas Padilla/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo [1/2]French President…
Forwarded from Song of Oil and LNG
🇷🇺 Russia Is the Quiet Winner of the Persian Gulf Energy Crisis
Just over a week before the conflict began, Russia's energy sector was under severe stress — oil prices were depressed, Western sanctions were biting, and millions of barrels of Russian crude floated without buyers on open water. The US-Israeli war on Iran has inverted that picture entirely. With Hormuz effectively closed and Gulf Arab producers unable to export at full capacity, Russian crude has become one of the few reliably deliverable alternatives on global markets.
Buyers that previously avoided Russian oil for political or logistical reasons are now returning with urgency. Indian refiners alone have already snapped up over 10 million barrels of Russian crude following a temporary one-month US sanctions waiver granted to India in response to the Middle East supply shock. Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, is among the buyers actively seeking Russian barrels under that waiver framework.
Moscow has effectively been handed a demand windfall and a pricing premium it could not have engineered through any diplomatic or market mechanism of its own.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Just over a week before the conflict began, Russia's energy sector was under severe stress — oil prices were depressed, Western sanctions were biting, and millions of barrels of Russian crude floated without buyers on open water. The US-Israeli war on Iran has inverted that picture entirely. With Hormuz effectively closed and Gulf Arab producers unable to export at full capacity, Russian crude has become one of the few reliably deliverable alternatives on global markets.
Buyers that previously avoided Russian oil for political or logistical reasons are now returning with urgency. Indian refiners alone have already snapped up over 10 million barrels of Russian crude following a temporary one-month US sanctions waiver granted to India in response to the Middle East supply shock. Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, is among the buyers actively seeking Russian barrels under that waiver framework.
Moscow has effectively been handed a demand windfall and a pricing premium it could not have engineered through any diplomatic or market mechanism of its own.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
The Wall Street Journal
The Big Winner From the Persian Gulf Energy Crisis? Russia
Just over a week ago, Russia’s energy industry was in its worst shape in years, with low oil prices and sanctions starving the economy of cash. Millions of barrels of Russian oil floated on the sea, much of it without a destination.
The war in the Persian…
The war in the Persian…
Forwarded from Song of Oil and LNG
🇶🇦 Qatar Loads First LNG Cargo Since Force Majeure — A Signal, Not a Resumption
Qatar appears to have loaded its first LNG cargo from the Ras Laffan export complex since the facility was shut down and force majeure declared following drone attacks linked to the broader Iran conflict. The loading represents a symbolic operational restart, but market participants should not interpret it as a return to normal export volumes from the world's second-largest LNG exporter.
Ras Laffan handles the full output of Qatar's LNG export infrastructure, which delivers approximately 77 million tonnes per year to long-term contract buyers across Europe, Japan, South Korea, China, and India. Even a partial or intermittent resumption matters at the margin — European and Asian buyers have been competing frantically for alternative cargoes, driving European benchmark gas prices toward a 50 percent weekly gain, the largest since 2023. A single cargo does not resolve the structural supply gap that has opened over the past week.
Until the Strait of Hormuz reopens and tanker insurance markets normalise, Qatar's ability to sustain exports at any meaningful rate remains constrained by security conditions rather than by production capacity.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Qatar appears to have loaded its first LNG cargo from the Ras Laffan export complex since the facility was shut down and force majeure declared following drone attacks linked to the broader Iran conflict. The loading represents a symbolic operational restart, but market participants should not interpret it as a return to normal export volumes from the world's second-largest LNG exporter.
Ras Laffan handles the full output of Qatar's LNG export infrastructure, which delivers approximately 77 million tonnes per year to long-term contract buyers across Europe, Japan, South Korea, China, and India. Even a partial or intermittent resumption matters at the margin — European and Asian buyers have been competing frantically for alternative cargoes, driving European benchmark gas prices toward a 50 percent weekly gain, the largest since 2023. A single cargo does not resolve the structural supply gap that has opened over the past week.
Until the Strait of Hormuz reopens and tanker insurance markets normalise, Qatar's ability to sustain exports at any meaningful rate remains constrained by security conditions rather than by production capacity.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Worldoil
Qatar loads first LNG cargo since force majeure
Qatar appears to have loaded its first LNG cargo since shutting the Ras Laffan export complex and declaring force majeure after drone attacks and escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupted regional energy flows.
Forwarded from Song of Oil and LNG
🇮🇳 India's LPG Prices Rise for First Time in a Year as Middle East Supply Collapses
Indian oil marketing companies have raised liquefied petroleum gas prices for the first time in approximately twelve months, as the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupts Middle Eastern supply chains and drives global LPG benchmark prices sharply higher. LPG is used primarily as a cooking fuel by hundreds of millions of Indian households, making the price increase both an energy market event and a domestic political and social issue of the first order.
India is one of the world's largest LPG importers, with a significant share of supply historically sourced from Gulf producers now operating under force majeure or facing export blockages due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Simultaneously, Adani Total Gas has tripled gas prices for large industrial consumers exceeding 40 percent of their daily allocation, compressing margins across India's manufacturing base. Indian Oil Corp has separately moved to book crude cargoes loading from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu — a routing that bypasses the Hormuz chokepoint entirely — to maintain refinery throughput.
The speed with which the supply shock has translated into retail price increases in India illustrates the degree to which Asia's energy import dependency leaves consumer populations directly exposed to Gulf conflict dynamics.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Indian oil marketing companies have raised liquefied petroleum gas prices for the first time in approximately twelve months, as the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupts Middle Eastern supply chains and drives global LPG benchmark prices sharply higher. LPG is used primarily as a cooking fuel by hundreds of millions of Indian households, making the price increase both an energy market event and a domestic political and social issue of the first order.
India is one of the world's largest LPG importers, with a significant share of supply historically sourced from Gulf producers now operating under force majeure or facing export blockages due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Simultaneously, Adani Total Gas has tripled gas prices for large industrial consumers exceeding 40 percent of their daily allocation, compressing margins across India's manufacturing base. Indian Oil Corp has separately moved to book crude cargoes loading from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu — a routing that bypasses the Hormuz chokepoint entirely — to maintain refinery throughput.
The speed with which the supply shock has translated into retail price increases in India illustrates the degree to which Asia's energy import dependency leaves consumer populations directly exposed to Gulf conflict dynamics.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Reuters
India raises cooking gas prices as Iran war hits supply
Indian companies have raised the prices of liquefied petroleum gas, mostly used as a cooking fuel, for the first time in about a year, as global prices surge with the U.S.-Israel war on Iran disrupting supplies from the Middle East.
Forwarded from Song of Oil and LNG
Europe's Gas Prices Post Largest Weekly Gain in Three Years — and the Continent Has No Easy Answer
Europe's benchmark natural gas price is heading for a weekly gain of approximately 50 percent, the largest single-week move since 2023, as the Strait of Hormuz closure has effectively halted Qatari LNG exports and forced European buyers into a direct bidding war with Asian importers for every available cargo on the spot market. The price shock is arriving at a moment when European storage, while not critically low, offers limited cushion against a prolonged supply disruption.
Europe had spent much of 2025 managing a structural LNG dependency that replaced Russian pipeline gas following the 2022 cutoffs. Qatar was a cornerstone of that diversification strategy, supplying a meaningful share of European LNG imports under long-term contracts now suspended under force majeure. Alternative suppliers — the United States, Australia, West Africa — are operating at or near capacity with no short-term surge ability. The energy price shock is compounding broader economic stress in the eurozone at a time when several major economies are already flirting with stagnation.
Europe has once again discovered that energy security built on long-distance LNG dependency carries a geopolitical fragility that diversification by source cannot fully eliminate when a single transit chokepoint is removed from the system.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Europe's benchmark natural gas price is heading for a weekly gain of approximately 50 percent, the largest single-week move since 2023, as the Strait of Hormuz closure has effectively halted Qatari LNG exports and forced European buyers into a direct bidding war with Asian importers for every available cargo on the spot market. The price shock is arriving at a moment when European storage, while not critically low, offers limited cushion against a prolonged supply disruption.
Europe had spent much of 2025 managing a structural LNG dependency that replaced Russian pipeline gas following the 2022 cutoffs. Qatar was a cornerstone of that diversification strategy, supplying a meaningful share of European LNG imports under long-term contracts now suspended under force majeure. Alternative suppliers — the United States, Australia, West Africa — are operating at or near capacity with no short-term surge ability. The energy price shock is compounding broader economic stress in the eurozone at a time when several major economies are already flirting with stagnation.
Europe has once again discovered that energy security built on long-distance LNG dependency carries a geopolitical fragility that diversification by source cannot fully eliminate when a single transit chokepoint is removed from the system.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Forwarded from Song of Oil and LNG
IEA Holds Back on Emergency Reserves Despite Hormuz Crisis — A Bet on Short Duration
The International Energy Agency has signalled it sees no immediate need to release emergency oil reserves from member country stockpiles, despite the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the cascading production shut-ins across the Gulf. The agency cited ample global supply availability and characterised the logistical disruptions as temporary, a framing that implies confidence the conflict will be resolved before a structural supply deficit materialises in inventories.
The IEA coordinates emergency reserve releases under the collective action mechanism established after the 1973 oil embargo, with combined member holdings exceeding 1.5 billion barrels. A coordinated release was last deployed in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The decision not to act now is effectively a forecast: that the Hormuz closure will be short-lived and that the price spike — with Brent pushing toward $90 and analysts warning of $150 — does not yet constitute the kind of sustained supply emergency the reserve mechanism was designed to address.
If the IEA's duration assumption proves wrong and the conflict extends beyond several weeks, the political pressure to release reserves will intensify sharply, and the agency's credibility as a crisis manager will be on the line.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
The International Energy Agency has signalled it sees no immediate need to release emergency oil reserves from member country stockpiles, despite the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the cascading production shut-ins across the Gulf. The agency cited ample global supply availability and characterised the logistical disruptions as temporary, a framing that implies confidence the conflict will be resolved before a structural supply deficit materialises in inventories.
The IEA coordinates emergency reserve releases under the collective action mechanism established after the 1973 oil embargo, with combined member holdings exceeding 1.5 billion barrels. A coordinated release was last deployed in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The decision not to act now is effectively a forecast: that the Hormuz closure will be short-lived and that the price spike — with Brent pushing toward $90 and analysts warning of $150 — does not yet constitute the kind of sustained supply emergency the reserve mechanism was designed to address.
If the IEA's duration assumption proves wrong and the conflict extends beyond several weeks, the political pressure to release reserves will intensify sharply, and the agency's credibility as a crisis manager will be on the line.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Worldoil
IEA sees no need yet to release emergency oil reserves amid Iran crisis
The International Energy Agency said it sees no immediate need to release emergency oil reserves despite disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, citing ample global supply and only temporary logistical impacts from the Iran conflict.
Forwarded from Song of Oil and LNG
Iran War Threatens Months of Higher Fuel Prices Even After Guns Fall Silent
Analysts and logistics operators are warning that even a rapid end to the US-Israeli campaign against Iran would not quickly reverse the energy price shock now working through global markets. Damaged port infrastructure, disrupted shipping insurance frameworks, logistical rerouting of tanker fleets, and risk premiums embedded in long-term contract pricing could sustain elevated fuel costs for weeks or months after any ceasefire.
The structural damage runs deeper than headline production outages. Shipping insurers have dramatically repriced war-risk premiums for Gulf voyages, making many routes commercially unviable even if they are technically passable. Refineries across Asia have been forced to alter crude slates, accept lower utilisation, or pay sharp premiums for alternative supply — costs that move through to fuel pump prices with a lag. Supply chains for fertilizer, petrochemicals, and industrial gases that depend on Gulf feedstocks are facing simultaneous disruption. BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has characterised expected oil and gas price rallies as significant yet short-lived, but acknowledges that the recovery timeline is highly sensitive to conflict duration and the pace of infrastructure repair.
The energy market is learning once again that the cost of a Gulf war is not priced only in the weeks of active combat but in the months of operational and financial reconstruction that follow.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Analysts and logistics operators are warning that even a rapid end to the US-Israeli campaign against Iran would not quickly reverse the energy price shock now working through global markets. Damaged port infrastructure, disrupted shipping insurance frameworks, logistical rerouting of tanker fleets, and risk premiums embedded in long-term contract pricing could sustain elevated fuel costs for weeks or months after any ceasefire.
The structural damage runs deeper than headline production outages. Shipping insurers have dramatically repriced war-risk premiums for Gulf voyages, making many routes commercially unviable even if they are technically passable. Refineries across Asia have been forced to alter crude slates, accept lower utilisation, or pay sharp premiums for alternative supply — costs that move through to fuel pump prices with a lag. Supply chains for fertilizer, petrochemicals, and industrial gases that depend on Gulf feedstocks are facing simultaneous disruption. BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has characterised expected oil and gas price rallies as significant yet short-lived, but acknowledges that the recovery timeline is highly sensitive to conflict duration and the pace of infrastructure repair.
The energy market is learning once again that the cost of a Gulf war is not priced only in the weeks of active combat but in the months of operational and financial reconstruction that follow.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Reuters
Iran war threatens prolonged hit to global energy markets
Consumers and businesses face weeks or months of higher fuel prices.
Forwarded from Tabz - Alternative Media (Tabz)
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You see this hat? Free Cuba. Stay tuned. The liberation of Cuba is upon us.
We're marching through the world. We're cleaning out the bad guys.
We're going to have relationships with new people that will make us prosperous and safe.
Iran is going down and Cuba is next.
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Forwarded from Tabz - Alternative Media (Tabz)
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Venezuela and Iran have 31% of the world's to oil reserves. We're going to have a partnership with 31% of the known reserves.
This is China's nicemare... nightmare.
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Forwarded from Tabz - Alternative Media (Tabz)
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Now, to our Arab friends: you’re being hit too.
Have any Arab countries struck Iran yet? If you want a treaty with the United States, you need to get involved in this fight.
You know, America is not going to the Middle East just to fight alone. So I’m urging our Arab allies to fight back. You’re being hit as well.
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait started reducing oil production, as the near-closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz ripples through energy markets and affects global supply.
Kuwait’s oil cutback started with about 100,000 barrels a day as of early Saturday and is expected to almost triple on Sunday, with further gradual reductions depending on storage levels and the status of Hormuz, a person with direct knowledge of the plan said, asking not to be named because the details are private.
The UAE, which pumped more than 3.5 million barrels a day as OPEC’s third-biggest producer in January, is using export capacity that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, and its international storage facilities, to ensure supply to global markets. Adnoc operates a 1.5 million barrel-a-day pipeline to Fujairah on the UAE’s western coast to avoid the strait. Adnoc said its onshore operations are continuing normally.
Cutbacks by the two OPEC members follow a swathe of others in the region. Iraq started holding back production earlier this week as storage tanks started filling up, while Saudi Arabia shut its biggest refinery and Qatar closed the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export plant after drone attacks.
Kuwait Petroleum declared force majeure — a legal clause allowing a company not to fulfill contractual obligations because of circumstances outside its control — on sales of oil and refinery products, according to a notice seen by Bloomberg.
The country produced about 2.57 million barrels a day of oil in January, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The only route out for the supply is through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the region, has diverted some of its crude away from this route toward Yanbu in the Red Sea.
Kuwait had earlier begun lowering processing rates at its refineries because of the fuller tanks. The nation’s plants — Al-Zour, Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah — have a combined capacity of about 1.4 million barrels a day. Al-Zour is one of the biggest oil-processing facilities in the Middle East.
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
Production has declined from 4.3 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day.
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X (formerly Twitter)
The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) on X
BREAKING: Oil production in Iraq has now declined by 3 million barrels per day.
Production has declined from 4.3 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day.
Production has declined from 4.3 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day.
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
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There are no plans to target Iran’s oil industry, their national gas industry, or anything about their energy industry.
If these are Israeli strikes, these are local fuel depots.
The U.S. is targeting zero energy infrastructure.
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, it closed it for every other Persian Gulf country but its oil tankers passed through the Strait without any problems.
This shows that China continues to receive some oil from Iran despite the ongoing war.
The U.S. has refrained from bombing Iran's oil infrastructure in the hopes that it can capture it intact and reroute the oil from China to itself but as the war progresses and Iran shows no sign of capitulation the more likely Kharg Island is to become a target.
Destroying Kharg Island would take out Iran from the oil market as 90% of the country's oil exports are done through that island making the war redundant. Rebuilding the infrastructure there would take years and cost billions.
@CIG_telegram
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
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Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
Ground operations in Iran could be needed to secure dangerous nuclear materials and verify the program's destruction, especially if the regime falls.
In 2016, the Department of Defense formally designated U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) as the lead entity for the Counter Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) mission, a role that U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) had previously held. Decades before then, the U.S. special operations community, especially the secretive Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), had been training to take a newly active role in tackling potential ‘loose nukes’ or other nuclear contingencies. This was driven in large part by the collapse of the Soviet Union, which had left nuclear weapons and other material scattered across a number of newly independent nations.
When it comes to Iran, it’s important to note that the exact current state of that country’s nuclear program, including efforts to develop nuclear weapons, is a matter of dispute, including between U.S. and Israeli intelligence services. The regime in Tehran also has a long history of, at best, obfuscating and, at worst, actively lying about its nuclear ambitions.
U.S. special operations units are ideally suited to rapidly and discreetly infiltrate into a target area to extract items of interest from an objective like a nuclear facility in Iran. If the items in question are too large to be moved by the special operations force, depending on what they are, they could then be destroyed in place or secured until a larger follow-on force arrives. Conventional supporting forces and interagency elements offering unique capabilities could accompany special operations forces on initial raids, as well.
This is not speculative, but reflects real mission scenarios the U.S. military is actively prepared to carry out. For instance, roughly a year ago, members of the Army’s 75th Ranger Regiment partnered with a specialized non-special operations unit, called Nuclear Disablement Team 1 (NDT 1), to conduct an exercise consisting of a simulated raid under hostile fire on a decommissioned pulse radiation facility serving as a mock underground nuclear site.
As another one of many examples, NDT 1 teamed up with Green Berets from the Army’s 5th Special Operations Group for an exercise in 2023 involving a mock air assault on the Bellefonte Nuclear Power Plant in Alabama and a simulated shutdown of the facility.
The NDTs are a prime example of conventional U.S. military units that could be called upon to support real-world special operations CWMD missions. The Army has three of these teams, all assigned to the 20th Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and Explosives (CBRNE) Command headquarters at Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland. These units are made up of personnel specially trained “to exploit and disable nuclear and radiological Weapons of Mass Destruction infrastructure and components to deny near-term capability to adversaries,” according to the Army.
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The War Zone
Loose Nukes In Iran Is A Scenario U.S. Special Operators Have Been Training For
Ground operations in Iran could be needed to secure dangerous nuclear materials and verify the program's destruction, especially if the regime falls.
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
The UK's gas reserves have dwindled from 18,000 GWh last year to 6,700 GWh, enough for just 1.5 days of demand, according to new data published by National Gas. There is a similar quantity stored as liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Europe is much better prepared to weather fluctuations in supply, with several weeks' worth of gas stored up.
Traders have been exploiting the UK's situation by charging it a premium price on gas, knowing it has no choice but to outbid its European competitors. The UK is now paying the highest wholesale gas price in Europe.
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Mail Online
Britain has just two days of gas stores - sparking fears of a crisis
Britain has just two days of gas stored up, sparking fears of a shortage crisis as the Middle East conflict threatens supplies.
Forwarded from Tabz - Alternative Media (Tabz)
In Iran, an official could never travel to another country to collude with a foreign spy service on how to "coach" our own President into doing bidding of foreigners.
We would ask what the foreign country may have on that official. And promptly charge him/her with High Treason.
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Forwarded from Combat Intel – BREAKING NEWS – OSINT – REPORTS
#BREAKING
❗️ 🇷🇺 📈 — An earthquake of magnitude 6.5 shakes the coasts of the Russian peninsula of Kamchatka.
The earthquake originated 231 kilometers from the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.
The earthquake originated 231 kilometers from the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.
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