Forwarded from Song of Oil and LNG
Iran War Threatens Months of Higher Fuel Prices Even After Guns Fall Silent
Analysts and logistics operators are warning that even a rapid end to the US-Israeli campaign against Iran would not quickly reverse the energy price shock now working through global markets. Damaged port infrastructure, disrupted shipping insurance frameworks, logistical rerouting of tanker fleets, and risk premiums embedded in long-term contract pricing could sustain elevated fuel costs for weeks or months after any ceasefire.
The structural damage runs deeper than headline production outages. Shipping insurers have dramatically repriced war-risk premiums for Gulf voyages, making many routes commercially unviable even if they are technically passable. Refineries across Asia have been forced to alter crude slates, accept lower utilisation, or pay sharp premiums for alternative supply — costs that move through to fuel pump prices with a lag. Supply chains for fertilizer, petrochemicals, and industrial gases that depend on Gulf feedstocks are facing simultaneous disruption. BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has characterised expected oil and gas price rallies as significant yet short-lived, but acknowledges that the recovery timeline is highly sensitive to conflict duration and the pace of infrastructure repair.
The energy market is learning once again that the cost of a Gulf war is not priced only in the weeks of active combat but in the months of operational and financial reconstruction that follow.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Analysts and logistics operators are warning that even a rapid end to the US-Israeli campaign against Iran would not quickly reverse the energy price shock now working through global markets. Damaged port infrastructure, disrupted shipping insurance frameworks, logistical rerouting of tanker fleets, and risk premiums embedded in long-term contract pricing could sustain elevated fuel costs for weeks or months after any ceasefire.
The structural damage runs deeper than headline production outages. Shipping insurers have dramatically repriced war-risk premiums for Gulf voyages, making many routes commercially unviable even if they are technically passable. Refineries across Asia have been forced to alter crude slates, accept lower utilisation, or pay sharp premiums for alternative supply — costs that move through to fuel pump prices with a lag. Supply chains for fertilizer, petrochemicals, and industrial gases that depend on Gulf feedstocks are facing simultaneous disruption. BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has characterised expected oil and gas price rallies as significant yet short-lived, but acknowledges that the recovery timeline is highly sensitive to conflict duration and the pace of infrastructure repair.
The energy market is learning once again that the cost of a Gulf war is not priced only in the weeks of active combat but in the months of operational and financial reconstruction that follow.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
Reuters
Iran war threatens prolonged hit to global energy markets
Consumers and businesses face weeks or months of higher fuel prices.
Forwarded from Tabz - Alternative Media (Tabz)
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
You see this hat? Free Cuba. Stay tuned. The liberation of Cuba is upon us.
We're marching through the world. We're cleaning out the bad guys.
We're going to have relationships with new people that will make us prosperous and safe.
Iran is going down and Cuba is next.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from Tabz - Alternative Media (Tabz)
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Venezuela and Iran have 31% of the world's to oil reserves. We're going to have a partnership with 31% of the known reserves.
This is China's nicemare... nightmare.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from Tabz - Alternative Media (Tabz)
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Now, to our Arab friends: you’re being hit too.
Have any Arab countries struck Iran yet? If you want a treaty with the United States, you need to get involved in this fight.
You know, America is not going to the Middle East just to fight alone. So I’m urging our Arab allies to fight back. You’re being hit as well.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait started reducing oil production, as the near-closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz ripples through energy markets and affects global supply.
Kuwait’s oil cutback started with about 100,000 barrels a day as of early Saturday and is expected to almost triple on Sunday, with further gradual reductions depending on storage levels and the status of Hormuz, a person with direct knowledge of the plan said, asking not to be named because the details are private.
The UAE, which pumped more than 3.5 million barrels a day as OPEC’s third-biggest producer in January, is using export capacity that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, and its international storage facilities, to ensure supply to global markets. Adnoc operates a 1.5 million barrel-a-day pipeline to Fujairah on the UAE’s western coast to avoid the strait. Adnoc said its onshore operations are continuing normally.
Cutbacks by the two OPEC members follow a swathe of others in the region. Iraq started holding back production earlier this week as storage tanks started filling up, while Saudi Arabia shut its biggest refinery and Qatar closed the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export plant after drone attacks.
Kuwait Petroleum declared force majeure — a legal clause allowing a company not to fulfill contractual obligations because of circumstances outside its control — on sales of oil and refinery products, according to a notice seen by Bloomberg.
The country produced about 2.57 million barrels a day of oil in January, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The only route out for the supply is through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the region, has diverted some of its crude away from this route toward Yanbu in the Red Sea.
Kuwait had earlier begun lowering processing rates at its refineries because of the fuller tanks. The nation’s plants — Al-Zour, Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah — have a combined capacity of about 1.4 million barrels a day. Al-Zour is one of the biggest oil-processing facilities in the Middle East.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
Production has declined from 4.3 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
X (formerly Twitter)
The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) on X
BREAKING: Oil production in Iraq has now declined by 3 million barrels per day.
Production has declined from 4.3 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day.
Production has declined from 4.3 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day.
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
There are no plans to target Iran’s oil industry, their national gas industry, or anything about their energy industry.
If these are Israeli strikes, these are local fuel depots.
The U.S. is targeting zero energy infrastructure.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, it closed it for every other Persian Gulf country but its oil tankers passed through the Strait without any problems.
This shows that China continues to receive some oil from Iran despite the ongoing war.
The U.S. has refrained from bombing Iran's oil infrastructure in the hopes that it can capture it intact and reroute the oil from China to itself but as the war progresses and Iran shows no sign of capitulation the more likely Kharg Island is to become a target.
Destroying Kharg Island would take out Iran from the oil market as 90% of the country's oil exports are done through that island making the war redundant. Rebuilding the infrastructure there would take years and cost billions.
@CIG_telegram
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
Ground operations in Iran could be needed to secure dangerous nuclear materials and verify the program's destruction, especially if the regime falls.
In 2016, the Department of Defense formally designated U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) as the lead entity for the Counter Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) mission, a role that U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) had previously held. Decades before then, the U.S. special operations community, especially the secretive Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), had been training to take a newly active role in tackling potential ‘loose nukes’ or other nuclear contingencies. This was driven in large part by the collapse of the Soviet Union, which had left nuclear weapons and other material scattered across a number of newly independent nations.
When it comes to Iran, it’s important to note that the exact current state of that country’s nuclear program, including efforts to develop nuclear weapons, is a matter of dispute, including between U.S. and Israeli intelligence services. The regime in Tehran also has a long history of, at best, obfuscating and, at worst, actively lying about its nuclear ambitions.
U.S. special operations units are ideally suited to rapidly and discreetly infiltrate into a target area to extract items of interest from an objective like a nuclear facility in Iran. If the items in question are too large to be moved by the special operations force, depending on what they are, they could then be destroyed in place or secured until a larger follow-on force arrives. Conventional supporting forces and interagency elements offering unique capabilities could accompany special operations forces on initial raids, as well.
This is not speculative, but reflects real mission scenarios the U.S. military is actively prepared to carry out. For instance, roughly a year ago, members of the Army’s 75th Ranger Regiment partnered with a specialized non-special operations unit, called Nuclear Disablement Team 1 (NDT 1), to conduct an exercise consisting of a simulated raid under hostile fire on a decommissioned pulse radiation facility serving as a mock underground nuclear site.
As another one of many examples, NDT 1 teamed up with Green Berets from the Army’s 5th Special Operations Group for an exercise in 2023 involving a mock air assault on the Bellefonte Nuclear Power Plant in Alabama and a simulated shutdown of the facility.
The NDTs are a prime example of conventional U.S. military units that could be called upon to support real-world special operations CWMD missions. The Army has three of these teams, all assigned to the 20th Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and Explosives (CBRNE) Command headquarters at Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland. These units are made up of personnel specially trained “to exploit and disable nuclear and radiological Weapons of Mass Destruction infrastructure and components to deny near-term capability to adversaries,” according to the Army.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
The War Zone
Loose Nukes In Iran Is A Scenario U.S. Special Operators Have Been Training For
Ground operations in Iran could be needed to secure dangerous nuclear materials and verify the program's destruction, especially if the regime falls.
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
The UK's gas reserves have dwindled from 18,000 GWh last year to 6,700 GWh, enough for just 1.5 days of demand, according to new data published by National Gas. There is a similar quantity stored as liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Europe is much better prepared to weather fluctuations in supply, with several weeks' worth of gas stored up.
Traders have been exploiting the UK's situation by charging it a premium price on gas, knowing it has no choice but to outbid its European competitors. The UK is now paying the highest wholesale gas price in Europe.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Mail Online
Britain has just two days of gas stores - sparking fears of a crisis
Britain has just two days of gas stored up, sparking fears of a shortage crisis as the Middle East conflict threatens supplies.
Forwarded from Tabz - Alternative Media (Tabz)
In Iran, an official could never travel to another country to collude with a foreign spy service on how to "coach" our own President into doing bidding of foreigners.
We would ask what the foreign country may have on that official. And promptly charge him/her with High Treason.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from Combat Intel – BREAKING NEWS – OSINT – REPORTS
#BREAKING
❗️ 🇷🇺 📈 — An earthquake of magnitude 6.5 shakes the coasts of the Russian peninsula of Kamchatka.
The earthquake originated 231 kilometers from the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.
The earthquake originated 231 kilometers from the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
🛢 Oil: +21%
✈️ Jet fuel: +87%
🔥 LNG: +106%
🚢 VLCC tanker rates: +201%
🚢 LNG carrier rates: +529%
🏗 Aluminum: +20%
🌾 Fertilizer: +36%
🧪 Naphtha: +26%
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
And almost nobody is talking about it.
Finance and insurance job openings collapsed by 117,000 in a single month.
The largest monthly decline during the entire 2008 crash was 125,000.
We're nearly there in one month, without a crisis.
Total finance job openings are now 134,000, the lowest since 2012.
Down 75% from the 2022 peak and 410,000 openings have vanished.
Fewer than 2 out of every 100 finance jobs in America are vacant right now.
That's the lowest rate this century, lower than the dot-com bust and than post-9/11.
Only the 2009 collapse was worse by barely.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley just cut 2,500 workers after a record revenue year.
Citigroup is eliminating 20,000 jobs by year end.
BlackRock cut hundreds in January.
Jack Dorsey fired 4,000 people at Block and said the quiet part out loud, AI did it.
His stock jumped 25% and Wall Street didn't mourn the layoffs but instead it rewarded them.
Goldman Sachs is now warning that AI-driven job losses could push unemployment to 4.5% or higher this year.
The finance industry isn't downsizing because it's losing money.
It's downsizing because machines are replacing the people who make the money.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Lavrov rejects their requests and points out that they have not condemned the bombing of the girls' school in Iran, and that Bahrain reportedly is seeking to introduce a resolution at the UNSC that condemns Iran's retaliation, but not Israel and the US for initiating the war.
Whether that is accurate or not, Lavrov's response seems to suggest that 9 days into the war, Moscow's position is moving closer to that of Tehran.
🔗 Trita Parsi (@tparsi)
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Forwarded from /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (George Walker)
Seoul says proposed statement would signal political will to move beyond the 1953 armistice
South Korea’s Unification Ministry said Friday it will pursue a political “peace declaration” aimed at formally ending the Korean War and laying the groundwork for a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, according to local media.
The proposed initiative would involve South Korea, North Korea, the United States and China, which were signatories to the original armistice agreement.
The idea resembles a similar initiative pursued by former President Moon Jae-in. His push for an end-of-war declaration stalled after the 2019 Hanoi summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and then-US President Donald Trump ended without an agreement.
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Anadolu Agency
South Korea seeks ‘peace declaration’ to formally end Korean War
Seoul says proposed statement would signal political will to move beyond the 1953 armistice
Forwarded from The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Average US gas prices are now expected to rise above $4.50/gallon this month, per Polymarket.
This would mark a +64% increase in 4 months. https://t.co/VwBHMRK7B9
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
This would mark a +64% increase in 4 months. https://t.co/VwBHMRK7B9
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Forwarded from The Kobeissi Letter
Individual investors are piling into oil funds at a record pace:
Retail inflows into the United States Oil ETF, $USO, surged to a record +$36 million on Friday.
This officially surpasses the previous high set in April 2020, during the global pandemic shutdown.
As a result, https://t.co/1EYvtZ15v1
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
Retail inflows into the United States Oil ETF, $USO, surged to a record +$36 million on Friday.
This officially surpasses the previous high set in April 2020, during the global pandemic shutdown.
As a result, https://t.co/1EYvtZ15v1
(@TheKobeissiLetter)