🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 The Iranian April 13 missile-drone attack on Israel was very likely intended to cause significant damage below the threshold that would trigger a massive Israeli response. The attack was designed to succeed, not to fail.

🔶️ The strike package was modeled on those the Russians have used repeatedly against Ukraine to great effect.

🔶️ The strike consisted of approximately 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles.

🔶️ The drones were launched well before the ballistic missiles were fired, very likely in the expectation that they would arrive in Israel’s air defense window at about the same time as the cruise missiles and drones.

🔶️ The Russians have used such an approach against Ukraine repeatedly.

🔶️ Only a few ballistic missiles penetrated Israeli air defenses and struck near Israeli military bases out of the 120 or so the Iranians fired.

🔶️ Ukrainian air defenses have averaged interception rates of only about 46% of Russian ballistic missiles during recent large strikes.

🔶️ The Iranians likely expected that Israeli rates would be higher than the Ukrainian rates but not above 90% against such a large ballistic missile salvo—the Russians, after all, have never fired close to that many large ballistic missiles in a single strike against Ukraine.

🔶️ Israel’s air defense system has several obvious advantages over Ukrainian air defense, but the full implications of some of those advantages might well have been unclear to Iranian strike planners.

🔶️ Ukraine has, in particular, been unable to use combat aircraft to shoot down Russian drones and cruise missiles at scale, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently observed that Kyiv will likely use the F-16s Ukraine will receive this summer in those roles.

🔶️ Iran will learn additional lessons from the failed attack that it can leverage to launch more successful attacks in the future.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran%E2%80%99s-attempt-hit-israel-russian-style-strike-package-failedfor-now

⚠️ Alert for iOS users: We have credible intel regarding a high-risk zero-day exploit targeting iMessage on the Dark Web.

This can infiltrate your iPhone without clicking any link. High-value targets are likely. Each use raises detection risk.

https://x.com/TrustWallet/status/1779961167537979775?t=hsyBbm9e4RTkiizLWTXL_Q&s=09

Vitalik Buterin endorses one of North Korea’s favorite coin mixers, Railgun.

Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has sent more than $300,000 to coin mixer Railgun which has also been used by North Korea’s Lazarus Group.

Buterin has been using the service for months, — albeit with smaller sums of money — and today he took a definitive stand in support of it and other coin anonymizing services.

https://protos.com/vitalik-buterin-endorses-one-of-north-koreas-favorite-coin-mixers-railgun/

T-Mobile Employees Across the Country Receive Cash Offers to Illegally Swap Sims (🔥 Score: 172+ in 1 hour)

Link: https://readhacker.news/s/663uX
Comments: https://readhacker.news/c/663uX

🇬🇾 ExxonMobil Commits $12.7 Billion Investment in Guyana's Whiptail Oil Field Development

ExxonMobil, a prominent US oil and gas company, has finalized its decision to proceed with the development of the Whiptail oil field within the Stabroek block located offshore Guyana.

The total financial commitment to this development project stands at $12.7 billion. Anticipated production from the field by the end of 2027 is estimated to reach approximately 250 thousand barrels per day (bpd). This significant addition will elevate Guyana's total oil production to 1.3 million bpd, placing the nation among the ranks of the world's leading oil producers.

Exxon intends to drill a total of 48 wells within the field as part of its development strategy.

Having been active in Guyana for five years, ExxonMobil has contributed over $4.2 billion to the country's economy during this period. Additionally, more than 6 thousand local residents are employed in Exxon's operations, with a production volume exceeding 600 thousand bpd.

ExxonMobil Guyana Limited, a subsidiary of Exxon, serves as the operator of the Stabroek block and holds a 45% stake in the project. Hess Guyana Exploration Ltd. holds 30%, while CNOOC Petroleum Guyana Limited holds the remaining 25% ownership share.

#Guyana #ExxonMobil
@songofoil

JUST IN: 500 blocks remain until Bitcoin halving.

@WatcherGuru

JUST IN: Telegram founder Pavel Durov sat down with Tucker for his first on-camera interview since 2016. In this clip, Durov talks about the pressure tactics the US government has used against him, including sending FBI agents to his home. Watch the full interview at TuckerCarlson.com.

📖 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 We are approaching a situation where the Russians are progressively gaining the skies. | Patricia Marins

🔶️ The current scenario involving the Russians utilizing new missiles like the KH-69 and soon the Izdeliye 720 poses a significant challenge for Western air defenses. Now consider the Upgrades in missiles such as the KH-101 and P-800, that have improved the effectiveness of these weapons.

🔶️ Furthermore, the Ukrainian Soviet air defenses were depleted months ago, and they are now relying on the older S-125 systems donated by Poland.

🔶️ These systems could be complementary if Western anti-air systems had a sufficient supply of missiles, but they are also facing ammunition shortages, as I reported two months ago.

🔶️ Last days the Russian operations on Chasiv Yard were vastly supported by air power without any contestation.
On one side, we witness the Russians executing massive mechanical maneuvers supported by air power, while the Ukrainians are mainly limited to defensive actions with the aid of numerous FPV drones.
Some drones can function as counter-artillery, but due to their limited range, FPV drones have proven to be effective as active mines, significantly delaying the Russian advancement.
The Russian missile industry has displayed resilience, and is prevailing in the attrition battle against Western Air Defenses, after depleting the Ukrainian Soviet systems.

🔶️ While many are unaware of this attrition war between missiles and Air Defenses, it's worth noting that the Ukrainians had over 10,000 anti-air missiles across their Soviet and Western systems, but now it has a shortage.

🔶️ The potential game-changer in this conflict could be foreign intervention. However, we are observing a scenario where a possible foreign task force may not have adequate air defense systems to safeguard their operations in Ukrainian territory.
The inertia and delayed political decisions of Western leaders, combined with Russian long-term strategies, could potentially outmaneuver even European forces stationed in Ukraine.

🔶️ There are several reasons contributing to why the West is losing this war, but the primary issue appears to be the lack of strong leadership.

https://fxtwitter.com/pati_marins64/status/1779215790949978468

📖 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 The Russians are breaking out of positional warfare and beginning to restore maneuver to the battlefield because of the delays in the provision of US military assistance to Ukraine. | ISW

🔶️ "Ukraine cannot hold the present lines now without the rapid resumption of US assistance, particularly air defense and artillery, that only the US can provide rapidly and at scale."

🔶️ "Ukrainian artillery shortages are letting the Russians use armored columns without suffering prohibitive losses for the first time since 2022."

🔶️ "The US can quickly resume providing military aid to let Ukraine stabilize the front lines near the current locations. Or it can let the Russians defeat the Ukrainian military and drive toward the NATO borders from the Black Sea to central Poland. There is no third option."

🔶️ "The risks of a Russian attack against NATO in the near future would rise dramatically if the US allows Russia to defeat Ukraine now, and the challenge of defending the Baltic States in particular could become almost insurmountable."

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/america%E2%80%99s-stark-choice-ukraine-and-cost-letting-russia-win