JUST IN: Telegram founder Pavel Durov sat down with Tucker for his first on-camera interview since 2016. In this clip, Durov talks about the pressure tactics the US government has used against him, including sending FBI agents to his home. Watch the full interview at TuckerCarlson.com.

📖 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 We are approaching a situation where the Russians are progressively gaining the skies. | Patricia Marins

🔶️ The current scenario involving the Russians utilizing new missiles like the KH-69 and soon the Izdeliye 720 poses a significant challenge for Western air defenses. Now consider the Upgrades in missiles such as the KH-101 and P-800, that have improved the effectiveness of these weapons.

🔶️ Furthermore, the Ukrainian Soviet air defenses were depleted months ago, and they are now relying on the older S-125 systems donated by Poland.

🔶️ These systems could be complementary if Western anti-air systems had a sufficient supply of missiles, but they are also facing ammunition shortages, as I reported two months ago.

🔶️ Last days the Russian operations on Chasiv Yard were vastly supported by air power without any contestation.
On one side, we witness the Russians executing massive mechanical maneuvers supported by air power, while the Ukrainians are mainly limited to defensive actions with the aid of numerous FPV drones.
Some drones can function as counter-artillery, but due to their limited range, FPV drones have proven to be effective as active mines, significantly delaying the Russian advancement.
The Russian missile industry has displayed resilience, and is prevailing in the attrition battle against Western Air Defenses, after depleting the Ukrainian Soviet systems.

🔶️ While many are unaware of this attrition war between missiles and Air Defenses, it's worth noting that the Ukrainians had over 10,000 anti-air missiles across their Soviet and Western systems, but now it has a shortage.

🔶️ The potential game-changer in this conflict could be foreign intervention. However, we are observing a scenario where a possible foreign task force may not have adequate air defense systems to safeguard their operations in Ukrainian territory.
The inertia and delayed political decisions of Western leaders, combined with Russian long-term strategies, could potentially outmaneuver even European forces stationed in Ukraine.

🔶️ There are several reasons contributing to why the West is losing this war, but the primary issue appears to be the lack of strong leadership.

https://fxtwitter.com/pati_marins64/status/1779215790949978468

📖 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 The Russians are breaking out of positional warfare and beginning to restore maneuver to the battlefield because of the delays in the provision of US military assistance to Ukraine. | ISW

🔶️ "Ukraine cannot hold the present lines now without the rapid resumption of US assistance, particularly air defense and artillery, that only the US can provide rapidly and at scale."

🔶️ "Ukrainian artillery shortages are letting the Russians use armored columns without suffering prohibitive losses for the first time since 2022."

🔶️ "The US can quickly resume providing military aid to let Ukraine stabilize the front lines near the current locations. Or it can let the Russians defeat the Ukrainian military and drive toward the NATO borders from the Black Sea to central Poland. There is no third option."

🔶️ "The risks of a Russian attack against NATO in the near future would rise dramatically if the US allows Russia to defeat Ukraine now, and the challenge of defending the Baltic States in particular could become almost insurmountable."

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/america%E2%80%99s-stark-choice-ukraine-and-cost-letting-russia-win

🏹 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 "Ukraine will not have a chance to win the war without the help of the USA.
Currently, the ratio of artillery at the front is 1 to 10, and for planes it is 1 to 30. With such statistics, the Russian Federation will push us back every day; Ukraine has completely run out of missiles to protect the Trypil TPP due to lack of assistance from allies," stated Zelensky.

✒️ Patricia Marins:
For several months, I have been predicting a Ukrainian defeat based on multiple shortages and maps. If I can foresee these developments, surely well-compensated government analysts can do the same. In this actual scenario, the war is lost. If the scenery change, I need to remake my predictions.

🔶️ Ukraine holds a disadvantage in every aspect of war, from manpower to heavy vehicles and air defenses.

🔶️ We are witnessing the Ukrainian army transitioning from modern weaponry to a guerrilla force whose main weapon is civilian drones.

🔶️ This is occurring under the watch of NATO countries and amidst the largest military budget in history.

🔶️ The Western allies have never sent a quantity of weapons sufficient to rival what Russia has deployed in Ukraine. The Russians have consistently had no fewer than 2,600 tanks deployed in Ukraine, which is almost three times the total number of tanks sent to Ukraine since 2022.

🔶️ I cannot see a way for Zelensky to hold the front until he is in a better position for negotiations. What can the allies send that would change the course of this war? I do not see any viable options that could alter the direction of this conflict.

🔶️ The West lacks the mobile air defense systems required by Zelensky, and they cannot produce enough missiles to support the long and medium range air defense systems throughout the country.

🔶️ Similarly, regarding artillery pieces, the logistics for maintaining equipment have not been established, and essentially the Western SPGs are depleted, with few exceptions. Not to mention ammunitions.

🔶️ In this guerrilla warfare armed with FPV drones, the Ukrainians are successfully delaying the Russian advance, but without any prospect of victory, it is merely buying time in a losing battle.

🔶️ The new defensive lines built by Ukraine are part of this delay strategy, which will eventually require Zelensky to sit down and negotiate.

🔶️ It's not the US parliament who are delaying weapons, but the lecture of the war. It became extremely hard to win.

🔶️ Negotiations aren't a choice, but the only way when you have no choices.

https://fxtwitter.com/pati_marins64/status/1780306086618103856

⚠️ Researchers warn of a global increase in TOR-based brute-force attacks targeting VPNs, web applications, and SSH services.

Details: https://thehackernews.com/2024/04/cisco-warns-of-global-surge-in-brute.html

— 🇮🇷 For the record:

This is a satellite photo of an Iranian ballistic missile storage / production facility. There are HUNDREDS of such warehouses and production facilities in Iran.

Practically every cent of Iran's defense budget has been spent on the mass production of ballistic missiles since the early 2000's.

The situation has now reached a point where the problem is not production capacity, but storage capacity. There are literally too many missiles to store. One commander famously said: 'We produce them like cigars'. Let this be clear.

@Middle_East_Spectator

🇬🇧🇺🇦🇷🇺El general británico Sir Richard Lawson dijo que existe "un grave riesgo" de que Ucrania pierda la guerra este año porque "Ucrania puede llegar a sentir que no puede ganar".
"Y cuando llegue ese punto, ¿por qué la gente querrá seguir luchando y muriendo, sólo para defender lo indefendible?", se preguntó el general.

Otras declaraciones del general respecto a la ofensiva rusa:

La forma de la ofensiva rusa que se avecina es bastante clara. Estamos viendo a Rusia arrasar en la línea del frente, empleando una ventaja de cinco a uno en artillería, municiones y un excedente de personal reforzado con el uso de armas nuevas. En algún momento de este verano esperamos ver una gran ofensiva rusa, con la intención de hacer algo más que avanzar con pequeñas ganancias para tal vez intentar romper las líneas ucranianas.

Y si eso sucede, correríamos el riesgo de que las fuerzas rusas irrumpan y luego exploten áreas de Ucrania donde las fuerzas armadas ucranianas no pueden detenerlas.

Un investigador en guerra terrestre en el grupo de expertos Whitehall del Royal United Services Institute dijo que "que los rusos pueden elegir dónde enviar sus fuerzas."
"Es una línea de frente muy larga y los ucranianos necesitan poder defenderla en su totalidad", comenta.

También explicó que "el ejército ucraniano perderá terreno", aunque "la pregunta es: ¿cuánto y qué núcleos poblacionales se van a ver afectados?".
El general Barrons dijo respecto a esto que "la ofensiva de este año tendrá como primer objetivo salir del Donbas y sus ojos estarán puestos en Jarkov, que está a unos 29 kilómetros aproximadamente de la frontera rusa, un premio importante."

🇬🇧British General Sir Richard Lawson said there is "a serious risk" that Ukraine will lose the war this year because "Ukraine may come to feel it cannot win."
"And when that point comes, why will people want to keep fighting and dying, just to defend the indefensible?" the general asked.

Other statements by the general regarding the Russian offensive:

The shape of the coming Russian offensive is quite clear. We are seeing Russia sweep the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of personnel reinforced with the use of new weapons. At some point this summer we expect to see a major Russian offensive, with the intention of doing more than just advancing with small gains to perhaps try to break through the Ukrainian lines.

And if that happens, we would risk Russian forces breaking into and then exploiting areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian military cannot stop them.

A land war researcher at the Whitehall think tank the Royal United Services Institute said "the Russians can choose where to send their forces."
"It's a very long front line and the Ukrainians need to be able to defend it in its entirety," he says.

He also explained that "the Ukrainian army will lose ground," although "the question is: how much and what population centers are going to be affected?"
General Barrons said in this regard that "this year's offensive will have as its first objective getting out of the Donbas and its eyes will be on Kharkov, which is approximately 29 kilometers from the Russian border, an important prize."

🔗https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68778338

▫️@ENTRE_GUERRAS▫️

🇵🇦 Panama canal increases booking slots amid expected rainfall

The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has announced an increase in booking slots for its Panamax locks starting mid-May, in response to current and predicted water levels in Gatun Lake.

With the dry season coming to an end, the ACP has been gradually easing restrictions and increasing the number of daily transits from 24 to 27, as of March 25.

From May 16, this number will further increase to 31 per day in both the Panamax (original) locks and Neopanamax (new) locks.

🔎 Source
#Panama

☠️ Blood Meridian

⚠️BREAKING⚠️

🇻🇪🇺🇸The United States restores sanctions on Venezuela due to non-compliance of the Barbados Agreement:

The United States reestablished sanctions against Venezuelan oil and gas and gave a deadline until May 31 for American companies to close operations in this matter.

This was established in General Ligency 44A, which replaced number 44, which had eased sanctions for six months on the condition that the commitments signed in Barbados last October were fulfilled.

In this sense, the Administration of President Joe Biden assured that "the United States will continue to evaluate the sanctions policy towards Venezuela in light of the actions taken by Maduro and his representatives as the country approaches the July 28 elections." .

OFAC clarifies that interested companies may request specific permits to operate in Venezuela and these requests will be studied "case by case." Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela is not affected by this decision.

🇦🇷 🛢🛢🛢

YPF (the Argentine oil company which is 51% owned by the Argentine state and 49% private) and Petronas will export LNG from Río Negro, Argentine energy exports continue to massively grow.

The president and CEO, Horacio Marín, announced that the company will begin exporting LNG in partnership with the Malaysian Petronas starting in 2026 from Punta Colorada.

Through the Vaca Muerta oil fields, two out of every three barrels of oil in the country leave the Neuquén Basin. The region's production exceeded 450,000 barrels per day, levels not seen in more than 20 years. Shale crude oil reached 357,000 barrels per day

Today YPF also announced that it will build a mega pipeline and confirmed that Vaca Muerta Sud will be put out to tender in the coming months further increasing extraction and refining capacity.

It's an excellent time for the energy industry in the country, and it's certainly giving a lot of headwind to the Milei administration in it's on-going fight to mantain the zero deficit.