🇪🇺 Threats to the EU refining industry

BP predicts the sunset of European refining: "Oil refineries across Europe will be forced to shut as the West abandons fossil fuels in the race to net zero," – said BP CEO Murray Okincloss, commenting on the company's financial statements.

He believes that older and smaller refineries in the EU will close or switch to biofuels as conventional oil refining becomes unprofitable due to a combination of soaring fuel taxes and falling demand from drivers switching to electric cars.

This is not entirely correct, as the main consumer of fuel is industry and freight transportation. Now, both industrial production and transportation are declining in the EU, leading to lower fuel consumption.

Data from thw Fuels Europe shows that refining capacity in the EU, as well as in the UK, Switzerland and Norway, is already declining. Capacity has fallen from 781 million tons a year in 2009 to 677 million tons now. This means that Europe accounts for about 15% of the world's refining capacity - well behind the US with 21% or APAC with 36%.

According to Oilprice, BP is scaling back biofuels projects, contrary to its own forecast, in response to high oil demand. The company has tempered its enthusiasm for its low-carbon program, and with it cut its climate commitments, adapting to an operating model that assumes continued high oil demand into the 2040s and beyond. In June, BP decided to continue investing in deepwater fields in the Gulf of Mexico, and made a statement saying it was "scaling back" new biofuels projects. All the "net zero" rhetoric is only needed to increase market share for conventional energy.

The oil giant's net profit for the second quarter of this year was higher than expected ($2.76 billion). The company's low-carbon and natural gas division, on the other hand, performed poorly, posting a loss of $0.1 billion.

These facts are in favor of refining over biofuels.

#EU #oil #refinery
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