The Rug Pull on Global Liquidity | Brent Johnson

Brent Johnson, who coined the phrase "dollar milkshake", comes on to Forward Guidance with Jack Farley to discuss:

➡️ the Japanese rug pull on global liquidity

➡️ why he doesn't think the U.S. is headed for a recession

➡️ why the dollar will be the last currency standing

➡️ why U.S. stocks are likely to continue to outperform

➡️ why the sign of the Fed losing control of the dollar will not be dollar weakness, it will be dollar strength

➡️ why predictions of the dollar's demise have been so wrong for 40 years, and why, even though they may eventually prove correct, that is not a way to make any money

➡️ and more!

Timestamps:
00:20 Introduction
01:54 Brent's Market Views
07:16 Brent's Dollar View
14:04 VanEck Ad
14:46 Interview Continues
18:17 Potential For A "Fiscal Doom Loop"
20:01 People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer
20:40 People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer
26:27 Hedging For The Dollar Milkshake In A Responsible, Risk-Defined Way
37:06 Permissionless Ad
38:13 Connection Between Dollar and U.S. Stock Market
43:39 Potential For A Global Dollar Squeeze
48:57 Why The Rest of The World Suffers From A Stronger Dollar
01:02:20 Would Trump And Vance Ticket Succeed In Weakening The U.S. Dollar To Promote Exports?
01:05:11 Michael Pettis' Frameworks That U.S. Fiscal Deficit Is Large Because U.S. Trade Deficit Is Large
01:13:23 Does Weaponization of The U.S. Dollar Force De-Dollarization?
01:16:37 Brent's Views On Economy And Stock Market: He Doesn't Think U.S. Is Headed For A Recession

He is also (and has been) a bull 📈 on gold and he remains a not a bull 📉 on Treasuries (which he says some incorrectly think he is). This interview was recorded on Friday, August 2, during Friday's sell-off but before the vicious sell-off on Monday.

This is a big file, but you can watch the clip on YouTube and on Twitter:
🔗 YouTube
🔗 Twitter

🇺🇸❌🇻🇪🇻🇪❗️ — 📰 AFP: United States envoy warns Maduro and the Chavista Regime of a global pressure ‘he could not imagine’ if Venezuelan opposition leaders are arrested by the ruling Chavista authorities

‼️🇦🇷❤️🇺🇾 Argentina and Uruguay advance in negotiations to reach a bilateral Permanent Residence agreement, standardize driver's licenses and recognize the study noscripts of some [university] careers

https://x.com/FinanzasArgy/status/1821572521335943316

@FelipeChannel

🇧🇷🤝🇨🇴🤝🇲🇽🗳🇻🇪Joint Statement from Brazil, Colombia and Mexico on the elections in Venezuela

The foreign ministers of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, by order of their respective presidents, met virtually yesterday, August 7, 2024, to continue discussing the current situation in Venezuela.

They consider essential the presentation by the National Electoral Council of Venezuela (CNE) of the results of the presidential elections of July 28, 2024, broken down by voting station. When taking note of the process initiated before the Supreme Court of Justice of Venezuela (TSJ) regarding the electoral process, they start from the premise that the CNE is the body that is responsible, by legal mandate, for the transparent disclosure of the electoral results.

They reaffirm the convenience of allowing impartial verification of the results, respecting the fundamental principle of popular sovereignty. Furthermore, they reiterate the call to the country's political and social actors to exercise maximum caution and moderation in public demonstrations and events and to the country's security forces to guarantee the full exercise of this democratic right within the limits of the law. . Respect for Human Rights must prevail in any circumstance.

Expressing, once again, their respect for the sovereignty and will of the Venezuelan people, they announce that they will continue with high-level conversations, and emphasize their conviction and confidence that the solutions to the current situation must emerge from Venezuela. In this sense, they reiterate their willingness to support efforts at dialogue and the search for understandings that contribute to political stability and democracy in the country.

Cancillería Colombia @CancilleriaCol 🔗

@FelipeChannel

🇻🇪🇻🇪🚫👤❌ — Nicolás Maduro orders the blocking of the social network 𝕏 (Twitter) in Venezuela for 10 days.

🇺🇸🇬🇧🇾🇪❗️ American-British warplanes launched airstrikes on Houthi military sites in the Ras Issa and Al-Salif areas in Hodeidah, Yemen.

💰💰‼️📈While regulators decide whether it’s ok for you to trade options on spot BTC ETFs…

Here’s a list of ETFs they’ve deemed ok for options to exist (via @JSeyff).

Make it make sense.

https://x.com/NateGeraci/status/1821698427119403502

@FelipeChannel

🇯🇵©️❗️🇨🇳 — 🇯🇵 Nikkei Asia | Japanese companies growing more wary of operating in China, report shows | Number of businesses down from peak but massive market still alluring | August 6, 2024:

"TOKYO -- Supply chain risks, anti-espionage legislation and rising geopolitical tensions are making Japanese companies less inclined to operate in China, a recent survey shows."

#Geoeconomics

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🇨🇳🏭🧠🤝🇲🇾 — 🇯🇵 Nikkei Asia | Malaysia and China deepen chip cooperation with joint expo | Kuala Lumpur seeks foreign investment to upgrade its 'Silicon Valley' | August 8, 2024:

"BEIJING/SINGAPORE -- Malaysia and China are pursuing closer cooperation on semiconductors via a joint industry event, as Kuala Lumpur seeks to advance its chip industry while Beijing bolsters its own supply chains.

The first Asia-Pacific Semiconductor Summit and Expo is set for October in the Malaysian state of Penang. The Malaysia Semiconductor Industry Association and the China Electronic Production Equipment Industry Association are among the organizers.

Malaysian businesses are anticipated to make up around 40% of the exhibiting companies, with 30% from China and 30% from elsewhere in the region."

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