🇧🇷🏛⚡️ — The Chemical Castration Bill for Pedophiles has just been approved by the Brazilian House of Representatives and will now move to the Senate.

🇷🇺🇸🇾🇱🇾 Russia will likely turn to Libya to replace its Syrian bases or mitigate its reliance on its Syrian bases in the Mediterranean & Africa even if it retains its Syrian bases.

The Kremlin faces political obstacles that make Russia’s long-term position in Libya vulnerable.

Libya is crucially the only country with a significant Russian military presence in Africa that Russian cargo planes can directly reach from Russia without refueling. Heavier cargo planes can reach Libya only by flying over Turkish airspace.

The Kremlin already increased Libya’s role as an operational hub for its various Africa Corps deployments in sub-Saharan Africa throughout 2024. These newly upgraded military facilities in Libya could handle some Russian logistics traffic that previously went through Syria.

The Kremlin has also sought an agreement for permanent Russian docking rights at Tobruk since 2023. A Russian naval base at Tobruk would fill similar logistical and strategic roles as Russia's base at Tartus, Syria.

Russia’s position in Libya is dependent on Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar, who controls the eastern half of Libya in Libya's stalemated civil war. This fact makes any Russian basing in Libya vulnerable to the same jeopardy as its Syria bases if Haftar’s regime collapsed.

The United States has increased outreach to Haftar in recent years and pressed him to reduce his ties with Russia. US officials specifically warned Haftar against accepting a Russian naval base during these discussions.

🔗 Critical Threats

🇷🇺🇱🇾 Facing loss of its Syrian naval base, Russia shifts focus to Libya

In March and April 2024, Russian landing ships frequently docked at Tobruk, the eastern Libyan port which hosts the Haftar-backed House of Representatives, unloading troops and thousands of tonnes of military equipment.

The shipments, which arrived from Tartus, contained towed artillery, armoured personnel carriers and rocket launchers.

The primary purpose of Russia's Tartus base was to service and replenish Russia’s naval assets and to provide logistical support for Russian operations in Libya and wider north Africa.

Aside from its Mediterranean Sea ports, Libya is already the base for Russian and Wagner activities in Niger, Chad, Central African Republic, and Sudan, making it of vital strategic importance.

https://www.euobserver.com/eu-and-the-world/ar090e3289

https://archive.ph/UrGhQ