🇱🇧 - A source close to Hezbollah told AFP that most of the group's military sites in southern Lebanon have been placed under the control of the Lebanese Army.

Out of 265 Hezbollah positions identified south of the Litani River, approximately 190 have reportedly been handed over to the army.

🇺🇸🇸🇦 - The US and Saudi Arabia will sign a preliminary agreement to cooperate on the development of a civil nuclear program in the kingdom.

🇫🇷🇬🇦 - French president Macron has called Gabon president Brice Oligui NGuema, who came to power through a coup in 2023, to congratulate him for winning the presidential election with 90% of the vote.

🇨🇩🇷🇼 - Gunfire heard in Goma.

Quand la Chine s'éveillera le monde tremblera.

Cody Balmer, the alleged perpetrator of the Shapiro residence arson, posted this a few years ago 🤔⏳

🇪🇨 - Daniel Noboa has been reelected as president of Ecuador. Opposition candidate Gonzalez says doesn't recognize the results.

🇩🇿🇫🇷 - Algeria is requesting the departure of 12 French diplomats from its territory. Paris has warned that it will retaliate immediately if the move is carried out.

Aside from being rich and popular he is also extremely well liked from people having different political view and spectrum of opinion.

Also taking into account his philanthropic action across America and the world it is not hard to imagine him winning in my opinion, I would say he have a shot at this if he manage to maintain his course and popularity until he reach 35yo.

🇵🇸🇪🇺 - The EU will invest €1.6 billion until 2027 to help stabilise the West Bank and Gaza.

🇫🇷 - LFI, RN threatens no-confidence motion over austerity efforts.

🇫🇷 - Just a general reflexion about France, that was inspired to me by the recent ban on Le Pen running for president but goes larger than that.

Let's face it: France's diplomatic standing is decreasing. The pope didn't attend Notre Dame de Paris' reopening. Other countries don't take Paris seriously, may it be on Africa or other issues.

The "official version" for the explanation would be something along the lines of "Well, Paris has a decreasing economic power, underinvested in its military, therefore..."

My gut feeling would be something that is more complicated to understand, but feels like the true plausible explanation: other countries feel that France is entering a systemic governance crisis, with "episodes"/ events possibly happening with little or no notice. Remember Nahel? There was a shooting, and 72h later it was already worse than 2005. The yellow vests? There was a few Facebook posts, a few weeks later they were 200 meters from the palace. Crépol? Little to no warning for an event that, let's face it, spooked many of the serious international observers.

Therefore, I think they could be waiting for the situation in France to normalize, plausibly after the 2027 election if everything goes right, to see if they can increase diplomatic engagement with Paris, or if governance continues to be the source of questionning.

🇱🇧🇸🇾 - Lebanese President Joseph Aoun says the government is actively working to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees to their homeland.

🇫🇷🇩🇿 - Macron's response to the situation with Algeria will be announced on Wednesday, according to sources close to the president.

🇧🇦 - There are growing reports of frustration in Sarajevo over the lack of support from the EU and EUFOR in efforts to arrest Serb leader Milorad Dodik.

Apart from that, there's not much to say about Bosnia, Srpska and Dodik.

We have reached the limit between pacifist and violent solutions. On the legal front, it's a dead end, and the High Representative has been keeping a low profile in recent weeks. The EU can't even coordinate to impose sanctions, and Dodik continues to travel abroad. On the military front, EUFOR does not seem to be intervening. Interpol refused to get involved.

As I predicted, Sarajevo quickly lost confidence in the EU's ability to help. Entire columns of trucks and armed vehicles have crossed the continent to arrive in Bosnia, with thousands of soldiers in all, helicopters and planes for probably nothing. Apart from sending a very bad signal to a country that has just been granted candidate status for EU membership, this inaction is bound to backfire.

US-sponsored conferences, assessments and reports were circulated on "Russia's growing influence in the Western Balkans" or "How ethnic tensions could be rising again". Bosnian politicians went from declaring that they didn't want to ask EUFOR to intervene because it wasn't its job, to sending letters to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, imploring him to act. EU diplomats essentially told Bosnia to clean up the mess itself.

The situation is therefore the same as it was at the start of this chapter a month ago: deadlocked. However, what is sure, is that Dodik proved that he can take strong measures without much consequences.

Assad didn't need to do any provocations: there was a slight opportunity and the Turks went straight to Damascus. Same with Stepenakert.

Brussels is just... being Brussels.