Aside from being rich and popular he is also extremely well liked from people having different political view and spectrum of opinion.

Also taking into account his philanthropic action across America and the world it is not hard to imagine him winning in my opinion, I would say he have a shot at this if he manage to maintain his course and popularity until he reach 35yo.

🇵🇸🇪🇺 - The EU will invest €1.6 billion until 2027 to help stabilise the West Bank and Gaza.

🇫🇷 - LFI, RN threatens no-confidence motion over austerity efforts.

🇫🇷 - Just a general reflexion about France, that was inspired to me by the recent ban on Le Pen running for president but goes larger than that.

Let's face it: France's diplomatic standing is decreasing. The pope didn't attend Notre Dame de Paris' reopening. Other countries don't take Paris seriously, may it be on Africa or other issues.

The "official version" for the explanation would be something along the lines of "Well, Paris has a decreasing economic power, underinvested in its military, therefore..."

My gut feeling would be something that is more complicated to understand, but feels like the true plausible explanation: other countries feel that France is entering a systemic governance crisis, with "episodes"/ events possibly happening with little or no notice. Remember Nahel? There was a shooting, and 72h later it was already worse than 2005. The yellow vests? There was a few Facebook posts, a few weeks later they were 200 meters from the palace. Crépol? Little to no warning for an event that, let's face it, spooked many of the serious international observers.

Therefore, I think they could be waiting for the situation in France to normalize, plausibly after the 2027 election if everything goes right, to see if they can increase diplomatic engagement with Paris, or if governance continues to be the source of questionning.

🇱🇧🇸🇾 - Lebanese President Joseph Aoun says the government is actively working to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees to their homeland.

🇫🇷🇩🇿 - Macron's response to the situation with Algeria will be announced on Wednesday, according to sources close to the president.

🇧🇦 - There are growing reports of frustration in Sarajevo over the lack of support from the EU and EUFOR in efforts to arrest Serb leader Milorad Dodik.

Apart from that, there's not much to say about Bosnia, Srpska and Dodik.

We have reached the limit between pacifist and violent solutions. On the legal front, it's a dead end, and the High Representative has been keeping a low profile in recent weeks. The EU can't even coordinate to impose sanctions, and Dodik continues to travel abroad. On the military front, EUFOR does not seem to be intervening. Interpol refused to get involved.

As I predicted, Sarajevo quickly lost confidence in the EU's ability to help. Entire columns of trucks and armed vehicles have crossed the continent to arrive in Bosnia, with thousands of soldiers in all, helicopters and planes for probably nothing. Apart from sending a very bad signal to a country that has just been granted candidate status for EU membership, this inaction is bound to backfire.

US-sponsored conferences, assessments and reports were circulated on "Russia's growing influence in the Western Balkans" or "How ethnic tensions could be rising again". Bosnian politicians went from declaring that they didn't want to ask EUFOR to intervene because it wasn't its job, to sending letters to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, imploring him to act. EU diplomats essentially told Bosnia to clean up the mess itself.

The situation is therefore the same as it was at the start of this chapter a month ago: deadlocked. However, what is sure, is that Dodik proved that he can take strong measures without much consequences.

Assad didn't need to do any provocations: there was a slight opportunity and the Turks went straight to Damascus. Same with Stepenakert.

Brussels is just... being Brussels.

🇫🇷 - France is studying a bill that would see the central state seize control of villages under 1000 inhabitants that fail to produce an electoral list that doesn't respect parity.

Admin opinion :

You might have seen it before but 1 year ago something happen, Operation true promise 1 or when Iran bombed Israel for the first time.

Now that a full year has passed I can safely say that this operation clearly didn’t reach the expected result or any result at all.

Let’s backtrack , on the 1st of April 2024 Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus resulting in casualties among Iranian official including an IRGC Quds force general named Mohammad Rahimi

Obviously this is a massive casus belli since embassy are considered foreign territory so it’s was like if Israel had bombed Iranian territory and Iran was indeed legitimate in striking back.

So after 2 weeks of Iranian threat and declarations allowing Israeli western ally time to deploy AD and countermeasure Iran decided to strike, by launching slow ass suicide drone… and then ballistic missile hours later.

Obviously most of the attack was intercepted and the rest landed in empty spot the desert.

As for human casualties Israel didn’t suffer any ( maybe one wounded but I do not remember tbh )

Now it’s obvious Iran was trapped, you cannot not respond to this since it’s way too serious but a real Iranian attack would have resulted in a hot war between Iran and Israel ( and the US obviously) so they did this mascarade of an attack to get rid of the issue.

Basically it was a "I am shooting in the air be careful not to receive the bullet in your head while it’s going down" type of response.

However you have to take this on the greater context, the one of Iranian red line being crossed continuously.

Iranian deterrence was already severely damaged by the assassination of Soleimani and the Iranian response to it was a similar one to True promise, an attack on a US base that didn’t resulted in any casualties so obviously since it didn’t stop Israel from crossing Iranian red line it was obvious that Iran shouldn’t have done a save facing attack a second time but instead should have done something more meaningful.

For example instead of attacking Israel Iran could have started the process of building a nuke as a response or could have instructed Hezbollah to be more involved and even launched ground attack.

So now the aftermath, well Operation True Promise 2 happened so it’s safe to assume the first operation didn’t impose any deterrence but I will talk about it when its OTP 2 anniversary arrive.

Overall the attack was more of an Iranian humiliation, 1 years later and :

- Israel is still in Gaza;

- Hezbollah is defeated and Nasrallah is dead;

- Assad is gone and Syria fell to rebels;

- Yemen is now being bombed and the Arab coalition will resume ground offensive;

- Iranian president Raisi was killed in an helicopter crash that was an obvious assassination and since he was supposed to be the next supreme leader well now Iran will have a succession crisis to deal with ( if the Islamic republic still exist );

- Iran is negotiating its nuclear program despite Khamenei constantly rejecting it and calling the US untrustworthy;

So this was my opinion and an overall summary, as you can see this operation was a failure.

🇫🇷 - Even with the current laws not asking for gender parity in municipal elections for villages under 1000 inhabitants, you still have some villages rushing to produce an electoral list, therefore there is obviously a feasability issue with the idea of progressing too fast towards gender parity, and the spectrum of Paris seizing control of small villages in the name of progress might cause systemic stress.

Disclaimer :

I’m not a pro Israel Zionist or anti Iran but as a former military man I cannot stand stupid military decisions.

This attack was bullshit and the Pro Iranian axis should wake up and stop transforming everything into a victory.

Because when I see how much this operation is praised well… sure it’s ballsy to attack Israel I recognize it but this wasn’t Pearl Harbor or the Tokyo air raid for exemple.

🇻🇪🇪🇨 - Maduro says massive fraud in Ecuador.

🇧🇦 - On Tuesday 15, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with the Chair and members of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Željka Cvijanović, Željko Komšić and Denis Bećirović at NATO HQ.

We don't have other info. other than "9:15 (CEST) Joint remarks by the Secretary General with representatives of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina"