📉 — Toyota stock crash after the unexpected turn of events in Syria

🇮🇱❌🇸🇾 — 10 Israeli airstrikes on Qunteira

🇸🇾❌🇮🇱 — Israeli tanks and bulldozers on their way to enter Syria, recorded by citizens in Majdal Shams a Syrian Druze town occupied by Israel in 1967.

🇸🇾❌🇮🇱 — Israeli airstrikes reported in Daraa and Suwaida

🇸🇾❌🇮🇱 — Interestingly opposition channels have literally 0 coverage over the Israeli invasion, similiar to the regime's channels when it was collapsing

🇸🇾❌🇸🇾 — Syrians are still waiting outside the prison for their family members to be freed, they're struggling to reach the underground parts as they have secret passages

🇸🇾❌🇸🇾 — More than 24 hours have passed since Syrians broke into Sednaya prison however they still can't the secret way to the underground parts of the prison, some people say it's 2 km away some say 10kms away.

🇮🇱❌🇸🇾 — Israel's Minister of Defense orders the army to destroy heavy strategic weapons throughout Syria, including air-to-ground missiles, air defense systems, surface-to-surface missiles, cruise missiles and long-range missiles

🇮🇱📞🇸🇾 — The Israeli defense minister orders establishing contacts with the Druze population in southern Syria

🇮🇱❌🇸🇾 — Israeli Foreign Minister:

Thinking about a single Syrian state with effective control and sovereignty over all its area is unrealistic.

🇮🇱❌🇵🇸 — A military truck loaded with explosives entered, then a Qassam fighter appeared from the side and fired an RPG at the truck, causing the explosives to explode.

3 soldiers were killed on the spot, and 18 other soldiers were injured to varying degrees.

🇹🇷 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Neo-Ottomanism in Syria | CIG #commentary

After Iraq, Iran, and Turkey defeated ISIS in 2017, they invaded Iraqi Kurdistan. This move enabled Turkish forces to expand militarily and establish many bases within Iraqi borders. With Assad gone, Syria's Kurdish government has an uncertain future.

The SDF in Northern Syria have built their house on sand. Many pro-FSA Arabs live in the northeast, and much of the SDF itself (2nd column from the right) is composed of such fifth column elements. A joint Syrian-Turkish invasion would likely be accepted as a liberation war.

US & Israeli officials are worried about defending a land corridor in Syria to prevent regional actors such as Turkey, Iran, and various Islamist factions from posing a threat to Israel.

Such a corridor would interfere with Turkey's strategic goals in Syria, especially just after an exhaustingly long civil war and newly found Turkish political dominance in the country. It is unlikely that Turkey would let this opportunity pass them by.

Meanwhile, Israel is perhaps over-extending itself during a lengthy multi-front war, as US-competitors Iran & Russia seem to remain steadfast after trading Assad for the new government in Syria established by the FSA.

Since Israel is conquering land over claims from thousands of years ago, does it not set precedent for Turkey to project Syrian sovereignty over Ottoman-era boundaries? Both armies are on the move now, and Assad is no longer in between them. What happens next? Enter Trump:

Situated in Golan Heights, the aptly named Trump Heights settlement symbolizes the intense involvement that the next Trump administration will have in the region. Rather than pivoting US strategic positioning to East Asia, Trump will have his hands full with Syria and Israel.

Dealing with Syria for Trump means dealing with Turkey. Many of Trump's allies have a very CENTCOM-centric focus on foreign policy. Keeping Neocons out of his admin is crucial in preventing the US from being bogged down in a forever war fueled by ancient blood grievances.

The factions that overthrew Assad in Syria are not unipolar either. Jolani's HTS is gaining distance from Turkey relative to the SNA by playing good cop with the SDF. The Southern Front & SFA are more secular and aligned with US/Israel forces.

Turkey will have to stabilize Syria first and may have to begrudgingly accept HTS primacy among other factions, along with supporting Jolani's legitimacy. Thereby choosing friendship with the HTS rather than completely losing them over failed attempts to control his territory.

Lastly, some have theorized that Israel and Turkey agreed to partition Syria. Something akin to the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and the ramifications it had for Poland.

@CIG_telegram

https://fxtwitter.com/franciscvs2/status/1865845871734063556