🇹🇷 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Neo-Ottomanism in Syria | CIG #commentary

After Iraq, Iran, and Turkey defeated ISIS in 2017, they invaded Iraqi Kurdistan. This move enabled Turkish forces to expand militarily and establish many bases within Iraqi borders. With Assad gone, Syria's Kurdish government has an uncertain future.

The SDF in Northern Syria have built their house on sand. Many pro-FSA Arabs live in the northeast, and much of the SDF itself (2nd column from the right) is composed of such fifth column elements. A joint Syrian-Turkish invasion would likely be accepted as a liberation war.

US & Israeli officials are worried about defending a land corridor in Syria to prevent regional actors such as Turkey, Iran, and various Islamist factions from posing a threat to Israel.

Such a corridor would interfere with Turkey's strategic goals in Syria, especially just after an exhaustingly long civil war and newly found Turkish political dominance in the country. It is unlikely that Turkey would let this opportunity pass them by.

Meanwhile, Israel is perhaps over-extending itself during a lengthy multi-front war, as US-competitors Iran & Russia seem to remain steadfast after trading Assad for the new government in Syria established by the FSA.

Since Israel is conquering land over claims from thousands of years ago, does it not set precedent for Turkey to project Syrian sovereignty over Ottoman-era boundaries? Both armies are on the move now, and Assad is no longer in between them. What happens next? Enter Trump:

Situated in Golan Heights, the aptly named Trump Heights settlement symbolizes the intense involvement that the next Trump administration will have in the region. Rather than pivoting US strategic positioning to East Asia, Trump will have his hands full with Syria and Israel.

Dealing with Syria for Trump means dealing with Turkey. Many of Trump's allies have a very CENTCOM-centric focus on foreign policy. Keeping Neocons out of his admin is crucial in preventing the US from being bogged down in a forever war fueled by ancient blood grievances.

The factions that overthrew Assad in Syria are not unipolar either. Jolani's HTS is gaining distance from Turkey relative to the SNA by playing good cop with the SDF. The Southern Front & SFA are more secular and aligned with US/Israel forces.

Turkey will have to stabilize Syria first and may have to begrudgingly accept HTS primacy among other factions, along with supporting Jolani's legitimacy. Thereby choosing friendship with the HTS rather than completely losing them over failed attempts to control his territory.

Lastly, some have theorized that Israel and Turkey agreed to partition Syria. Something akin to the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and the ramifications it had for Poland.

@CIG_telegram

https://fxtwitter.com/franciscvs2/status/1865845871734063556

🇵🇸🤝🇸🇾 — Hamas released an official statement regarding the Fall of Assad: [click to expand]

The Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas congratulates the brotherly Syrian people on their success in achieving their aspirations for freedom and justice. We call on all components of the Syrian people to unite their ranks, further their national cohesion, and rise above the pains of the past.

We, in the Hamas movement and our Palestinian people, stand firmly with the great Syrian people, and we affirm the unity of Syria and the integrity of its territories, and respect for the Syrian people, their will, independence, and political choices.

The brotherly Syrian people, with all their spectrums, national unity, and the spirit of brotherhood and tolerance, are capable, God willing, of overcoming all challenges and passing through this critical stage, in a way that achieves goodness, development, security, stability and prosperity for Syria and its dear people, so that Syria can continue its historical and pivotal role in supporting the Palestinian people and their resistance to achieve the goals of their just cause, and to consolidate Syria’s leadership role at the level of the Arab and Islamic nation, and at the regional and international levels.

We, in the Hamas Movement, condemn in the strongest terms the repeated brutal aggression of the Zionist occupation against Syrian lands, and we categorically reject any Zionist ambitions or plans targeting our sister Syria, its land and its people.

May God protect Syria, Palestine and the entire nation from all harm.

Islamic Resistance Movement - Hamas

🇸🇾 - The Syrian National Socialist Party has issued a statement, commenting on the recent developments and the fall of the Assad Regime [click to expand]:

Following the various pivotal events that occurred after Operation Flood of Al-Aqsa, from aggression and genocide in occupied Palestine, and an attempt to invade Lebanon and eliminate its resistance, the event inside Syria came to have a strong impact on the region.

In this context, the Syrian Social Nationalist Party emphasizes the following:

1- As a result of the fall of the former regime, it is necessary to work to find an acceptable and appropriate solution for all our people in the Levant by creating an authority emanating from the will of the Syrians themselves, which governs the country and preserves the unity of its lands, society and interests, preserves institutions and consolidates the concept of citizenship and the national state, as well as defining for itself a clear and fixed compass, which is Palestine.

2- The Syrian Social Nationalist Party stresses that it is the duty of all national forces and every Syrian citizen to work to confront the Jewish invasion of southern Syria, in defense of the land, homeland and people, which cannot be liberated without a combat doctrine that is the basis for a national army that preserves the state and protects its lands, people and institutions.

3- The party confirms that the institution of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party is based on a 93-year-old doctrine that transcends any system and is not linked to any authority or state, as the party derives its presence and legitimacy from the struggles of the nationalists and our people and it remains and continues on Saadeh's path. The existence of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party is not linked to the fall of the regime in Syria, as the party was founded before the existence of the regime itself, and the last four years before its fall were characterized by the severing of relations with our party, the punishment of its officials and the oppression of the nationalists in Syria. The regime also contributed to the division and fragmentation of our party's institutions.

4- The party calls on the Syrian Social Nationalists in the Levant to work under the umbrella of Antoun Saadeh's approach and thought by consolidating the concept of community unity, preserving and maintaining public institutions, preventing any aggression against them, rejecting sectarian discourse, and cooperating with the forces that ensure the realization of the interests of the state and the people, and protecting citizens and property.

5- Calling on the Lebanese interior to spare all Lebanese the pitfalls of chaos whose features have begun to appear. We call for not betting on what they consider a loss for the national resistance project in order to avoid strife, which if it occurs, its fire will reach everyone.
The party demands that the Lebanese state and its military and security apparatuses prevent any attack or provocation sought by some hot-headed and irresponsible heads against any party office, and work to establish security and freedom of expression under the umbrella of the law and protect public and private property to preserve the unity of the country and ward off strife.

The Syrian Social Nationalist Party derives its spirit from its leader, Antoun Saadeh, and his teachings, and depends for its continuity on the vitality of the Social Nationalists and their struggle, jihad, political, and reformist project.

🇩🇪🇦🇹🇬🇷🇸🇾 — Austria, Germany and Greece suspend Syrian asylum applications

🇸🇾🇸🇾 HTS Commander-in-Chief Al-Julani met with Syrian Prime Minister Al-Jalali to discuss and coordinate a smooth transition of power in Syria.

@TabZLIVE

🇸🇪❌🇸🇾❗️ — Sweden’s 2nd-largest party, the Right-wing Sweden Democrats, announce that they want to overturn the residency rights to Syrians who have been granted asylum in Sweden and send them back to Syria after Syrian Rebels toppled Bashar al-Assad and Baathist Syria

🇫🇷❌🇸🇾❗️ — French Interior Ministry: We are now working on suspending asylum applications by Syrians after fall of Assad and the proclamation of a Transitional Government in Syria

➡️ The French government is working on a suspension of current asylum cases from Syria after the fall of President Bashar Assad, the interior ministry said, adding that a decision on the matter would likely be reached within the next few hours.

🇮🇱❌🇸🇾 — According to reports, the Israeli army destroyed all the Syrian army's MiG-29 aircraft, a number of radar stations and weapons depots.

— 🇸🇾/🇮🇷 NEW: After Iran obtained a guarantee from HTS and other rebel factions in Syria to respect Shia holy sites, for now, the Sayyeda Zainab Shrine in Damascus is open and operating normally

An Iranian films this video saying the situation is fine, the shrine is open and working, it is fully safe & secure and people are visiting it.

@Middle_East_Spectator