According to LBC, Hezbullah and allies got 6 ‘electoral quotients’ in Beirut II. This could qualify for 6 seats.

🚨 The Lebanese Forces party in Al-Maalaqa shot at a convoy of Hezbullah supporters injuring a girl from the Samaha family in her leg.

She was transferred to Zahle Governmental Hospital for treatment.

Preliminary results in Metn after 90% of the boxes were sorted indicate that the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb Party, and Free Patriotic Movement got 2 seats.

Michel Murr and Tashnaq got 2.

⋯ According to initial results, Amal and allies got 2 seats in Sidon while Osama Saad got 2.

Lebanese Forces and Foad Siniora lost.

Someone just celebrated with a B-7 rocket in Dahyeh. Bunch of imbeciles.

The RPG-7, also dubbed B-7, was fired near Ain El-Remmaneh, with reported shooting in the air.

No reports of any clashes as falsely reported by a few news outlets.

Michel Murr Jr. won a seat in Matn while famous journalist, representing MMFD, Jad Ghosn lost.

No reports yet of any seat won by MMFD, out of their 65 candidates for this parliamentary elections.

⋯ Talal Arslan and Wiam Wahab lost.

Final results aren't released yet, but here are interesting outcomes nonetheless:

1. As of now, Hezbullah stood ground as expected, but there is higher anti-Hezbullah opposition in the South (liberals, communists, etc). No shifts in Beqaa.

2. FPM and LF achieved a good result by keeping their big representation. FPM, despite 3 ⁠years of facing media attacks & protests, kept a sizeable bloc (in earlier elections, its bloc was filled with opportunistic people).

3. Traditional 8-March & 14-March “populists” were defeated, e.g. Wahab, Arslan, Hobeich. After three decades, Assad Hardan lost (which is ironic, since he's representing SSNP, but SSNP expelled him). Ashraf Rifi won 3 ⁠seats in Tripoli, while in 2018 he won none.

4. Another thing to observe: despite MMFD dominating social media activism, it failed to achieve any results in the elections. Their rhetoric and failure to attract the less fortunate classes contributed in this. However, the unified multi-party opposition scored well.

⬥ Counting continues in Mount Lebanon IV. Talal Arslan and Wiam Wahhab lost so far, but Cesar Abi Khalil, Farid Bustani and Ghassan Atallah secured their seat. A large number of expatriate votes cast for their list (“The Mountain”) in the Chouf district may win them a 4th seat at the expense of the Lebanese Forces party.

⬥ Preliminary results showed that Future Movement (Saad Al-Hariri's) MPs Sami Fatfat, Mustafa Alloush and Hadi Hobeish didn't win back their seats.

⋯ MP Ghada Ayoub won the Greek Catholic seat in South I (Sidon-Jezzin), according to her party, the Lebanese Forces party.

Ghada Ayoub: “Our project is to build a country with no illegal weapons in it [Hezbullah's weapons].”

⋯ In a tweet showing joy that the Lebanese Forces and opposition have surpassed FPM and others, the Saudi ambassador to Lebanon Waleed Bukhari quoted the Quran:

وَمَنْ أَصْدَقُ مِنَ اللَّهِ قِيلًا: ❞ يَا أَيُّهَا الَّذِينَ آمَنُوا إِنْ تَنْصُرُوا اللَّهَ يَنْصُرْكُمْ وَيُثَبِّتْ أَقْدَامَكُم ❝.

[...“O you who believe, if you help God he will help you and make you steadfast.”]

Saudi diplomatic sources said to LBC: “The claim that the Sunnis would boycott the elections failed, thanks to the ambassador's visits.”

⋯ The polls of South I (Sidon-Jezzin) are fully counted.

According to the results, Ghada Ayoub (Lebanese Forces party) got the highest share, then Abdul Rahman Bizri, Osama Saad, Saeed Al-Asmar, and Charbel Massad.

LF being #1 in the so-called capital of the Resistance in South Lebanon.

⋯ No Shia seats were won by opposition or 14-March parties, with Hezbullah and Amal winning 27/27 seats designated for the Shia Muslim population.

However, the defeat is for their traditional allies in several provinces.

⋯ The upcoming parliament will likely not have a majority as long as the Lebanese Forces party does not ally with a portion of the opposition, despite their common rhetoric that is extreme anti-Hezbullah weapons (anti-resistance in general) and anti-FPM.

With such a parliament, the upcoming presidential election and government formation will be extremely complicated, where there is risk of power vacuum for some time.

⋯ Counting started of expatriate votes for the district of Baalbek-Hermel.

The competition is over the Sunni seat after the Maronite seat was decided in favor of LF's Antoine Habashi.

In 2018, both the Sunni & Maronite seats where won in favor of LF and FM (Future Movement).

⋯ In principle, Hezbullah and allies (FPM, Amal, Marada, etc) will get between 59 to 62. They are not unified.

While the rest will be divided into two main blocks:

- Pro-Saudi (Lebanese Forces, Asraf Rifi, Joumblat,...)

- Opposition (17-October parties, ind., Osama Saad, etc)

⋯ In Beqaa II (West Beqaa-Rashaya), the lawyer of the opposition candidate Yassin Yassin convinced the judge at the counting process to discard a full box of legitimate votes from Syria, claiming it was suspicious because it only contained votes for one candidate (his rival in 8-March).

Who did he expect Lebanese in Syria to vote for?

Additional footage from CCTV cameras showing the horrific assault by the Israeli police on the French hospital and the funeral of journalist Shereen Abu Akla.

Video by: @‌‌‎M_shebrawy

Lebanese elections at the (approximate) macro level:

- To win 10 seats in Jbeil-Keserwan, you need about 50,000 ⁠votes in total.

- To win 10 seats in Beirut, about 100,000 ⁠votes.

- To win 10 seats in South Lebanon, about 300,000 ⁠votes.

For example, Hezbullah's Mohammed Raad got himself ~50k votes in South Lebanon, more than whole other parties, but his list lost 1 of the 10 seats.

This is because of the sectarian non-proportional distribution of parliamentary seats between Muslims and Christians, and the lack of equal representation.

⋯ Israeli think-tank Alma celebrates the increase in the parliament seats of the Lebanese Forces party.

The Lebanese Force party was an ally to Israel during the Lebanese civil war (1975-1990)