⬥ Counting continues in Mount Lebanon IV. Talal Arslan and Wiam Wahhab lost so far, but Cesar Abi Khalil, Farid Bustani and Ghassan Atallah secured their seat. A large number of expatriate votes cast for their list (“The Mountain”) in the Chouf district may win them a 4th seat at the expense of the Lebanese Forces party.

⬥ Preliminary results showed that Future Movement (Saad Al-Hariri's) MPs Sami Fatfat, Mustafa Alloush and Hadi Hobeish didn't win back their seats.

⋯ MP Ghada Ayoub won the Greek Catholic seat in South I (Sidon-Jezzin), according to her party, the Lebanese Forces party.

Ghada Ayoub: “Our project is to build a country with no illegal weapons in it [Hezbullah's weapons].”

⋯ In a tweet showing joy that the Lebanese Forces and opposition have surpassed FPM and others, the Saudi ambassador to Lebanon Waleed Bukhari quoted the Quran:

وَمَنْ أَصْدَقُ مِنَ اللَّهِ قِيلًا: ❞ يَا أَيُّهَا الَّذِينَ آمَنُوا إِنْ تَنْصُرُوا اللَّهَ يَنْصُرْكُمْ وَيُثَبِّتْ أَقْدَامَكُم ❝.

[...“O you who believe, if you help God he will help you and make you steadfast.”]

Saudi diplomatic sources said to LBC: “The claim that the Sunnis would boycott the elections failed, thanks to the ambassador's visits.”

⋯ The polls of South I (Sidon-Jezzin) are fully counted.

According to the results, Ghada Ayoub (Lebanese Forces party) got the highest share, then Abdul Rahman Bizri, Osama Saad, Saeed Al-Asmar, and Charbel Massad.

LF being #1 in the so-called capital of the Resistance in South Lebanon.

⋯ No Shia seats were won by opposition or 14-March parties, with Hezbullah and Amal winning 27/27 seats designated for the Shia Muslim population.

However, the defeat is for their traditional allies in several provinces.

⋯ The upcoming parliament will likely not have a majority as long as the Lebanese Forces party does not ally with a portion of the opposition, despite their common rhetoric that is extreme anti-Hezbullah weapons (anti-resistance in general) and anti-FPM.

With such a parliament, the upcoming presidential election and government formation will be extremely complicated, where there is risk of power vacuum for some time.

⋯ Counting started of expatriate votes for the district of Baalbek-Hermel.

The competition is over the Sunni seat after the Maronite seat was decided in favor of LF's Antoine Habashi.

In 2018, both the Sunni & Maronite seats where won in favor of LF and FM (Future Movement).

⋯ In principle, Hezbullah and allies (FPM, Amal, Marada, etc) will get between 59 to 62. They are not unified.

While the rest will be divided into two main blocks:

- Pro-Saudi (Lebanese Forces, Asraf Rifi, Joumblat,...)

- Opposition (17-October parties, ind., Osama Saad, etc)

⋯ In Beqaa II (West Beqaa-Rashaya), the lawyer of the opposition candidate Yassin Yassin convinced the judge at the counting process to discard a full box of legitimate votes from Syria, claiming it was suspicious because it only contained votes for one candidate (his rival in 8-March).

Who did he expect Lebanese in Syria to vote for?

Additional footage from CCTV cameras showing the horrific assault by the Israeli police on the French hospital and the funeral of journalist Shereen Abu Akla.

Video by: @‌‌‎M_shebrawy

Lebanese elections at the (approximate) macro level:

- To win 10 seats in Jbeil-Keserwan, you need about 50,000 ⁠votes in total.

- To win 10 seats in Beirut, about 100,000 ⁠votes.

- To win 10 seats in South Lebanon, about 300,000 ⁠votes.

For example, Hezbullah's Mohammed Raad got himself ~50k votes in South Lebanon, more than whole other parties, but his list lost 1 of the 10 seats.

This is because of the sectarian non-proportional distribution of parliamentary seats between Muslims and Christians, and the lack of equal representation.

⋯ Israeli think-tank Alma celebrates the increase in the parliament seats of the Lebanese Forces party.

The Lebanese Force party was an ally to Israel during the Lebanese civil war (1975-1990)

⋯ ⬥ The expatriate votes played in the favor of several candidates, giving Marwan Kheireddin, Elie Ferzli and others a higher chance of keeping/winning their seats.

⬥ Counting is concluded for South I and II, Mount Lebanon ⁠I, and Beqaa ⁠I. Lebanon's interior minister will announce the final results of those areas shortly, on TV.

⋯ The Islamic group supporters (Muslim Brotherhood branch in Lebanon) contest their loss and the winning of MP Elie Ferzli.

Update: Ferzli lost his seat.

⋯ Hezbullah's candidate Raed Berro won the Shia seat in Jbeil-Keserwan.

This is likely the first time Hezbullah/Amal get this Shia seat.

⋯ Semi-final results for Beirut ⁠II (West Beirut):

1- Hezbullah & allies' list “Beirut united”: 3 ⁠seats (36,181 votes)
2- Western-backed NGOs' list “Beirut the change”: 2 ⁠seats (31,582)
3- Islamic Group's list “This is Beirut”: 2 ⁠seats (20,169)
4- Makhzoumi's list “Beirut needs a heart”: 2 ⁠seats (19,074)
5- Siniora and PSP's list “Beirut confronts”: 1 ⁠seat (17,677)
6- Al-Ahbash and Trablousi's list “For Beirut”: 1 ⁠seat (14,349)

Hezbullah's MP Amin Sherri, sanctioned by the USA, got the greatest number of votes per candidate, 26,140 votes.

The Druze candidate of “Beirut needs a heart”, Zeina Mounzer, won her seat with only 272 votes.

⋯ Semi-final results for North ⁠II (Tripoli):

1- Arab Liberation Party's “The people's will”: 3 ⁠seats (28,144 votes)
2- LF & Ashraf Rifi's list “Rescue of a nation”: 3 ⁠seats (27,818)
3- FM-affiliated list “Lebanon is ours”: 2 ⁠seats (26,173)
4- Islamic Group's list “The real change”: 2 ⁠seats (16,210)
5- Mikati-supported list “For the people”: 1 ⁠seat (15,476)
6- Thawra-affiliated list “Revolt for justice and sovereignty”: 1 ⁠seat (12,544)

In brief, Faysal Karami's and Ashraf Rifi's lists won 3 seats each. On Rifi's list, a candidate won his seat with only 82 ⁠votes.

MMFD lost and got two-thirds less votes than the list of a barely-known French-Lebanese Omar Harfoush.

⋯ The "opposition" needs 3,500 votes out of the 12,000 expatriate votes being counted now to win the second seat in South (III) district.

⋯ ⬥ According to Hezbullah's election campaign, there are 6,000 votes cancelled in Nabatiyeh district. Cancelled for voting two lists, or voting for two candidates, or removing candidates on a list. Many among the youths and elders don't know the new voting mechanism.

⬥ A ballot box from France, for South ⁠III, was discarded because the head of the polling station didn't send the official papers with it. Its votes were legitimate.

⋯ Supporter of a candidate that won in the elections in Akkar celebrated with thousands of bullets and RPG-7 shots.

A child was injured. Another was injured yesterday from similar celebrations.

⬆️ Seen in the video above is what a common Lebanese militia for a political party looks like, M-16s, AKMs and RPGs, enough to fight a civil war. Muslims, Christians, and Druzes.

When some demand removing Hezbullah's weapons, they are only concerned about the ones that threaten Israel.