The National Security Liaison Officer (Fatah) in Ain Al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp, Saeed Al-Asous, was subjected to an assassination attempt.

He is in a very critical condition.

Al-Asous is confirmed dead.

He was shot by a masked gunman to the head.

A large fire broke out near Kibbutz Shnir in the Upper Galilee, near Kiryat Shmona.

The fire was not brought under control yet.

Head of IDF's southern command, Eliezer Toledano: “I hope those across the border understand the message, and if not, we will have to repeat it.”

Toledano is repeating the statement issued by the Israeli PM and MoD, threatening Hezbullah and Iran of a pre-emptive operation.

⋯ However, that show of force by IDF is laughable to Hezbullah's military command.

The shift of the IDF doctrine over the years is worth reading: from ground-force oriented military ops (up to 2000) to high reliance on the airforce (2006), then a joint coordinated air–ground doctrine (2008-2014), and back to relying on the airforce (2019, 2021, 2022).

IDF understands that a ground battle in Gaza is futile, due to its cost and because Gaza's factions are deeply rooted. The success in occupying it, similar to the era before 2005, is not possible. The only objective in Gaza is to keep it idle.

⋯ The Israeli security establishment concluded over the years that it is best to work on orienting Gaza towards a non-confrontational policy: economic incentives and jobs for Gazan locals, are meant to kill the Palestinian spirit.

PIJ has a different policy than Hamas. The latter moved away from continuous resistance to fighting only when necessary (similarly to Hezbullah after South Lebanon was liberated).

PIJ believes that we should keep on fighting, continue the resistance acts, and keep up with the spirit (e.g. it is against allowing Gazans to work in Israel). This is why PIJ was the center of Israel's military actions, 2019 and 2022 as prime examples, while Israel's wars with Hamas were led by what the situation forced them to, like in 2021.

⋯ In fact, IDF sees Gaza as a secondary front (a cause of annoyance, but not an existential threat). It can be handled without a ground battle to end it.

Israel's #1 front is Lebanon. Unlike Gaza, Hezbullah is not under siege, is rich, has access to the world's military resources, has more fighters, suitable geography and relevant experience. It is capable of firing military-grade rockets in one day totalling what Gaza fired in a week.

⋯ The only downside, Hezbullah doesn't have manpower.

I, and I'm a nobody whose opinion is worthless, don't think Hezbullah's manpower can materialize into a 100,000 fighting power.

And in the light of this, Hezbullah will never have enough men to hold ground inside Israel

⋯ That's why the liberation can materialize, if the Egyptian or Jordanian armies commit to the war. Unlikely, today.

Israel's ability to survive is based on one thing: the well being of the IDF.

Gaza's most important role in the future is assisting Hezbullah to achieve what is very possible: damaging the IDF. Gaza will play an important role in causing chaos in IDF's decision making and commitment of resources. In brief, while Hezbullah can saturate the Iron Dome alone, Gaza could force the IDF to spread the effort of the AD on two opposite directions.

⋯ Achieving that, Hezbullah's massive & diverse missile array can and for the first time since 1948, deal actual material damage to Israeli civilian and military infrastructure.

End

Hojjat al-Islam Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah will speak shorty for his important political speech on the anniversary of Ashura.

Currently tens of thousands of Lebanese shia Muslims are commemorating the events in Beirut. Similar gatherings are held around Lebanon.

⋯ Sayyed Safi El-Din: "We will always support and stand with the Palestinian resistance, its heroes and people in the lands of 1948, the West Bank and Jerusalem. We say to our beloved people, we are with you, we are with you, we are with you."

⋯ Safi El-Din: "This sea is ours, this sky is ours, this land is ours, and these heavens are ours, because in us is the dignity of the homeland, pride, glory, resistance, history, and the will to defend our sanctities."