📝 Some thoughts as usual

I'd initially say that had Israel been able to kill Sinwar, may he live longer than the youngest of us, Israel would have had been ready to declare the victory in Gaza and the liquation of Hamas as a fighting force and its leadership.

However with their failure to do so after two month, after this destructive wave of attacks and penetration in Gaza, I'm getting convinced that Israel might actually intend to repeat the scenario it did with the PLO in Lebanon back in 1982. That is, efficiently ending the PLO in Lebanon and dismantling it.

Though I'd like to say I'm confident in Hamas's ability to withstand longer, I've always been a guy (or a girl...don't assume my gender lol), who put sensible evidence and unbiased analysis before faith in things (excluding God).

Hamas is facing a very strong force, one that's not only has one of the biggest firepowers in the world, but one that's being supported by the world supper powers. Enough men, and weapons, and you are good to go.

The thing is, Israel's backyard is safe and this will enable it to go for long. I'd compare this to Hezbullah's war in Syria. Lebanon was safe, people lived normal lives, giving Hezbullah the safe backyard to recruit, plan, operate. Lebanese were not under pressure. A safe heaven. Hamas is denied that and denied thanks to Egypt and others the necessary aid to ensure the patience and survivability of the people. No, Gazans will not turn on Hamas, but Gazans are suffering immense pain.

If the situation goes for long, and Israel continues to advance, in that small strip... literally the size of Saida in Lebanon, Hamas will be in a real existential crisis.

A full Israeli occupation of Gaza and then resistance translates to the end of Hamas in comparison to what it was back before 7-October. Itll he a new phase of one trying to rise again.

But I doubt it'll reach that exact point. Knowing the above, I'm confident that the moment Israel reaches a point where it is able to end Hamas as a fighting force, Hezbullah will join the war in full force.

Hezbullah's role is now simply to engage the army in a limited effort to draw the attention of part of the air force, special forces, and armour. Honestly I do think that Hezbullah decreased its operations for two reasons:

- A small or large number is giving the same effect
- The lack of targets that can keep this battle limited

Clearly, Hezbullah wants this war to end. It neither wants nor wishes the war to resume and hopes Hamas will be able to negotiate a ceasefire and exchange of prisoners that will bring great joy to the Palestinians. It'll make 7-October a day of greater victory and a day to be remembered.

However from what I can understand from what im seeing from Hezbullah, but who am I to even assess them..my apologies. But, what I can observe is that Hezbullah is acting tamed and is allowing Israel to cross many red lines...too many red lines just for the sake of ensuring if a war happens, it'll be in Hezbullah's timing and playground.

Nothing else will justify the weak actions of Hezbullah in certain moments, and it staying silent to two assassinations in Syria and others in Lebanon. To the damage being caused. And so on.

Assumption is, Hezbullah sees that if the war in Gaza stays long enough, Israel will lose the international support knowing the pain it brought to Palestinian and the evil it displayed. They already started to lose this momentum as mentioned by Biden.

With Israel losing that, being deep and months exhausted in Gaza, knowing well they aren't rotating soldiers, and with increasing their hostilities in Lebanon verses Hezbullah's limited actions...an opening of a harsh retaliation by Hezbullah will be justifiable to the supporting base and Lebanese but more importantly won't be viewed as aggression.

Then, Israel whose deep in Gaza will be forced to pull some forces to retaliate deep in Lebanon, setting the ground for The Third Lebanon War.

It's again, where Hezbullah could save Hamas like it did in 2006.

I personally, I hope the war end today.

🌷 Mother of the three Barakat brothers who were martyred over the years:

"A day will come Israel. I swear to God you didn't break me."

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇱/🇱🇧 BREAKING: The U.S. National Security Advisor Jack Sullivan has told Israeli Officials that Washington will back an Israeli military campaign against Hezbollah if a diplomatic deal fails - Ynet

@Middle_East_Spectator

📃 US to support Israel in assassinating Yehya Al-Sinwar

A senior U.S. official says in a briefing with reporters that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s days are numbered. “he has American blood on his hands and he is holding American hostages. No matter how long it takes justice will be made when it comes to Sinwar”, he said

Quoted from Barak Ravid

📃 Readout issued by the White House about National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s Meetings with Israeli Officials

It claims that the US wants to restore peace on the Lebanese border, through diplomacy but also deterrence.

🌹 Hezbullah - Path to Jerusalem martyrs

09-October: 3
14-October: 1
15-October: 1
17-October: 5
18-October: 3
21-October: 6
22-October: 7
23-October: 4
24-October: 9
25-October: 5
26-October: 3
29-October: 1
30-October: 1

02-November: 6
03-November: 2
04-November: 1
05-November: 3
06-November: 2
10-November: 7
11-November: 1
12-November: 2
13-November: 1
16-November: 2
20-November: 1
21-November: 1
22-November: 1
23-November: 7

01-December: 2
02-December: 1
06-December: 1
07-December: 3
08-December: 4
09-December: 1
11-December: 2
13-December: 3
14-Decemver: 2

Numbers are based on announcement day

🌷Total: 105🌷

📃 Summary of attacks Hezbullah took credit for on 14 December

🔻 A staging ground for Israeli soldiers near Shomira barracks at 10.00 am

🔻 Yiftah barracks and staging ground at 2.20 pm

🔻 Group of soldiers near Hunin at 2.30 pm

Some notes:

📝 A day with one of the least attacks on the Israeli border

📑 At least two rocket attacks were not claimed by any faction

🌷One Hezbullah member succumbed to his wounds while another was killed in an airstrike. Another critical injury reported

📃 As of today, Hezbullah took credit for 7 attacks on the Israeli army on the Lebanese border

🔻 Attack on a group of soldiers near Metat barracks at 1.50 pm. Deaths and injuries claimed

🔻 Jerdah military point with a Burkan rocket at 2.10 pm

🔻 Al-Bayad military site at 2.15 pm

🔻 Staging ground near Rameem barracks at 3.00 pm

🔻 Hanita base at 3.15 pm

🔻 Al-Rahib military site with a Burkan rocket at 3.30 pm

🔻 A group of Israeli soldiers at 4.20 pm

📷 An hour ago, a barrage of rockets was fired towards Jerusalem from Gaza.

📷 Photo from earlier today, of the Iron Dome activity over southern Lebanon.

At least 6 rocket alerts took place in northern Israel.

📹 In response to the attacks from Lebanon, the Israeli army attacked a series of locations in the south, including alleged cells, rockets launch sites and compounds.

📹 Additional footage of the Israeli attacks in Lebanon were documented.

The video shows an attack on a building, and the targeting of a rocket launcher. The launcher was spotted in activity.

🔴 Just now, an Israeli airstrike took place in the outskirts of Kafarshouba hills.

📃 So far today, the IDF announced the death of three soldiers

☠️ Sgt. Oz Shmuel Aradi, 19, Combat Engineering Corps' 603rd Battalion

☠️ Sgt. First Class (res.) Shay Uriel Pizem, 23, tank commander in the 401st Armored Brigade's 9th Battalion

☠️ Master Sgt. (res.) Tomer Shlomo Myara, 28, Combat Engineering Corps' 710th Battalion

🪦 This raises the official toll in the ground invasion of Gaza to 119 soldiers.

⚰️ The body of two soldiers and one settler were located in Gaza, kidnaped on 7-October and located based on POW testimonies.